Where do Matt Ryan and Julio Jones rank on PFR’s Hall of Fame metric?

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Deen Worley
·3 min read
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The Atlanta Falcons are one of the few NFL teams that can say they have a legitimate Hall of Fame duo at quarterback and wide receiver.

In 2019, Pro Football Reference created their own Hall of Fame metric that was “designed to estimate a player’s chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones.”

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has posted a score 97.4 and is the third-highest active quarterback behind Tom Brady (250.9) and Aaron Rodgers (163.7). While Ryan’s score may be well below his colleagues, he is not too far off from the average Hall of Fame score of 104.

Critics of Ryan often point out his lack of a Super Bowl title. However, PFR doesn’t value winning a Super Bowl like people are led to believe because it’s considered a team stat. Ryan’s 2016 Super Bowl performance shows just how true that statement is. Yes, having a Super Bowl title helps the case of a player, but it’s not the key factor in deciding who is or isn’t a Hall of Famer.

The area that has hurt Ryan the most is a lack of Pro Bowl selections. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016. Ryan also managed to win the league’s Most Valuable Player award in 2016 and was named a first-team All-Pro. Despite having comparable numbers to his MVP season, Ryan was left out of the Pro Bowl in 2018.

Philip Rivers, who has a metric score of 97.6, has played two more seasons than Ryan while having four more Pro Bowl selections. Now let’s turn our attention to Julio Jones and where he sits on the Hall of Fame metric.

With a career score of 100.8, Larry Fitzgerald (140.9) is the only active receiver higher than Jones. While Jones may be just under the average Hall of Fame metric score of 105, he has more Pro Bowl selections than the average inductee.

One area that could be problematic for Jones is his lack of touchdown receptions. His career total of 60 is less than Wes Welker, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Anthony Miller and Demaryius Thomas. The average Hall of Famer has posted a career total of 90 touchdowns through 12 seasons.

While both Ryan and Jones are near the top of their respective position groups, both players have more to do before they can solidify a spot in the NFL’s most elite club. This season, for the first time in their careers, this duo will have an offensive-minded head coach.

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