'We're the uninvited guest:' How the Pacers match up with the top-seed Celtics

BOSTON -- Rick Carlisle was asked after the Pacers' phenomenal performance in their Game 7 win over the Knicks Sunday if he had any thoughts about the Celtics.

Considering he was coming off a thrilling series win and hadn't had a second to think about what would come next much less watch film of the Pacers' upcoming opponent, he initially said, "No, I don't." But in the midst of an answer to another question, he decided he should at least state what was obvious to anyone who has even casually watched the NBA this season.

"Boston, I'll just mention, they're a team that has set the pace for the entire league this year," Carlisle said. "We have an idea of what we're getting into up there with the crowd and the level of talent they have. But this is a challenge that we've earned and we're looking forward to it."

Indeed, the Celtics' 64-18 regular season record helped them win the Eastern Conference by 14 games, and it bested Oklahoma City and Denver's Western Conference-leading 57-25 marks by seven games, so they were already guaranteed home-court advantage throughout the playoffs before those two teams were eliminated, leaving Minnesota and Dallas to fight for the conference title.

The Celtics responded to Milwaukee's preseason acquisition of Damian Lillard by pursuing and getting the best player the Bucks had to part with to get Lillard -- Jrue Holiday -- after also acquiring center Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason, creating unquestionably the most talented starting five in the NBA. They won their first five games, 11 of their first 13, 20 of their first 25 and 31 of their first 40. They lost consecutive games just three times all season and never lost more than two in a row.

And now with the Nuggets eliminated, they are even more of a betting-line favorite to win their first NBA title since 2008.

But of course, the Pacers have been beating teams they weren't supposed to beat all season with one of the most notable occasions being the In-Season Tournament quarterfinal upset of the Celtics in December. The Pacers were the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they took out the No. 3 seed Bucks in six games and the No. 2 seed Knicks in seven, leaving them the last team standing with Boston.

"We're the uninvited guest," Carlisle said. "So here we are."

The Pacers were the NBA's highest-scoring team and the Celtics were second. The Celtics had the NBA's most efficient offense and the Pacers were second. There was a dramatic difference in defensive rating, however, as the Celtics ranked second and the Pacers were 24th.

The Pacers led the league in bench scoring and might have the deepest roster in the NBA, but the Celtics arguably have the best top-line talent. Here's a look at how they match up position by position.

Point Guard

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Jrue Holiday

Haliburton and Holiday will be teammates on the U.S. Olympic team this summer in Paris and might even share a backcourt together, but they were selected for that team for very different reasons.

Haliburton will be there because he may be the best distributing point guard in the NBA, coming off a regular season in which he led the NBA with 10.9 assists per game, as well as being an overall scoring and outside shooting threat. He averaged 20.1 points per game in the regular season and despite some shaky performances in the playoffs, he's averaging 18.8 points per game and scored 21.3 per game on 53.8% shooting and 43.9% 3-point shooting in the series win over the Knicks.

Holiday will be there because he's one of the best on-ball defenders in the world as well as a more-than-adequate scorer and distributor. The 33-year-old has an Olympic gold medal already from 2021 and an NBA title with the Bucks from the same summer. His counting stats have taken a dip on this loaded Celtics team, but he still averaged 12.5 points and 4.8 assists per game and he had one of the most efficient shooting seasons of his career, making 42.9% of his 3-pointers and posting an effective field goal percentage of .580.

Holiday might split the defensive assignment of guarding Haliburton with Derrick White and both are among the best perimeter defenders in the league. Haliburton is good at reading and disrupting passing lanes, but on-ball defense is not his strong suit, so the Celtics will try to attack him whether Holiday or White is running the offense.

Shooting Guard

Andrew Nembhard vs. Derrick White

Derrick White is in many ways the sort of guard Andrew Nembhard aspires to be. He's a point guard by trade but he can play off the ball and works well next to another point guard. He can get to the rim and finish, but he's lethal from outside. And as well as he can score, he's one of the best defenders in the league.

At 29, of course, White is the much more accomplished player coming off a season in which he was named second-team All-Defense and bound to be All-Defense again when the team is announced this week.

Much as is the case with the Pacers, either guard could technically be considered the point guard and each ball-handler makes life easier for the other. In his first season with Holiday, White averaged 15.2 points and 5.2 assists per game, just short of career highs in both categories. Outside of his small-sample size rookie season in which he played a total of 139 minutes in 17 games, White had his most efficient shooting season, making a career-high 196 3-pointers on a career-best 39.6% clip and a career-best 55.2% of his 2-pointers and posting a career-high in effective field goal percentage at .578. He's been even better in the playoffs averaging 18.2 points per game so far with a 38-point outing in Game 4 against the Heat.

The 24-year-old Nembhard hasn't been quite that efficient, but he's also not far from where White was at this stage of his career. Nembhard averaged 9.2 points and 4.1 assists per game this season, right around where White was in his second season in San Antonio, and shot better percentages across the board than White did in that year. He's taken on the toughest defensive assignments on a nightly basis along with forward Aaron Nesmith. He struggled against the Knicks Jalen Brunson, but shined in the back half of the series against the Bucks on Lillard, and he's also had been excellent on offense in the playoffs. He scored 20 points on 8 of 10 shooting in Game 7 against the Knicks and averaged 12.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting including 52.6% from 3-point range.

The Pacers could use Nembhard to defend White or Holiday, but one or the other will likely have the advantage on Haliburton. On the flip side, White or Holiday could guard Haliburton and the other would make for a tough matchup for Nembhard.

Small Forward

Aaron Nesmith vs. Jaylen Brown

Aaron Nesmith is motivated every time he faces the Celtics, who picked him with the No. 14 pick in the 2020 draft but used him sparingly in his two seasons in Boston behind All-NBA wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Nesmith has immense respect for both players and they have the same for him, but he maintains a chip on his shoulder about the experience and wants to show the Celtics what they missed out on.

Acquiring him in the Malcolm Brogdon deal in July of 2022 has been huge for the Pacers, who signed him to a three-year deal worth $33 million to be their "Swiss Army Knife" as teammate T.J. McConnell put it, defending star players of all shapes and sizes and also giving the Pacers a player with 3-point shooting capability who is also strong in straight-line drives. Nesmith averaged a career high 12.2 points per game this season and was arguably their most important defensive player. He's guarded star players at every position 1-5 including MVPs, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and LeBron James and the decision to move Nesmith onto the Knicks' Jalen Brunson helped turn that series. He has struggled to shoot the ball in the playoffs but scored 19 points on 8 of 8 shooting in Game 7.

But of course, Brown is still one of the best wings in the league. After earning second-team All-NBA honors last year, he averaged 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists this year as well as 1.2 steals, shooting a career-best 49.9% from the floor and earning a third All-Star nod. He's averaging 23.1 points per game so far in these playoffs and shooting 55.4% from the field.

Nesmith could match up with either Brown or Tatum and will most likely guard both at some point in the series. Brown could guard Nesmith or Pascal Siakam but could also guard Tyrese Haliburton in a pinch.

Power Forward

Pascal Siakam vs. Jayson Tatum

Few big wings in the NBA are better at creating and making tough shots than Siakam and Tatum, who have seven All-Star selections and five All-NBA nods between the two of them. The 6-8 forwards can both handle, pass and shoot which makes each of them among the most lethal offensive weapons in the NBA.

Tatum, who has finished in the top eight of the MVP voting in each of the last three years, shoots at higher volume and has the ball in his hands more in general. He averaged 30.1 points per game in 2022-23, and even though the Celtics spread the scoring out more this year, he still finished seventh in the NBA among qualifying scorers with 26.9 points per game to go with 8.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists. He's averaged 24.3 points per game to go with 10.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the Celtics' 10 playoff games.

Siakam took on less of a ball-handling role when he joined the Pacers than he had in Toronto, but he's proven to be of indispensable value whether the Pacers are playing in transition or slowed into halfcourt basketball. He's unquestionably the Pacers' best scoring option in isolation with a dynamite mid-range game when either facing up or playing out of post-ups. He averaged 21.3 points per game in his 41 regular season games for the Pacers after the trade on 54.9% shooting and is leading them in the playoffs with 21.1 points per game on 53.7% shooting.

The Pacers could use Siakam's length on Tatum or could shift him on to Brown. The two teams have met since he was acquired -- a 5-point Pacers lose with Siakam scoring 23 points. On the flip side, the Celtics could use Brown or Tatum on Siakam but will likely have to use both.

Center

Myles Turner vs. Al Horford/Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis is dealing with a similar calf injury to the one that kept Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the first round. He's been out since Game 4 of the Heat series and is reportedly certain to miss at least the first two games of this series. However, there is optimism that he will return at some point and when he does, he will be a tough cover.

The 7-2, 240-pounder averaged 20.1 points per game this season along with 7.2 rebounds. He also made 110 3-pointers and shot 37.5% from beyond the arc as well as 60.6% inside of it, and he blocked 1.9 shots per game.

The 6-9 Al Horford, who turns 38 the day after Game 7 of the series is scheduled, obviously doesn't have nearly Porzingis' length and he's almost 10 years Porzingis' senior, but the five-time All-Star remains an impact player even in the twilight of his career. He averaged 8.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.0 blocked shots per game this season and he hit 108 3-pointers at a 41.9% clip. He scored 22 points against the Cavaliers in the clincher of that series in Game 5, hitting six 3-pointers.

Neither matchup will be easy for Myles Turner, but he won't be an easy matchup himself. He's proven to be the perfect ball screen partner for Haliburton, whether he's popping, rolling all the way to the bucket or short-rolling to either hit a mid-range jumper or create for others. He's averaging 17.5 points per game in the playoffs on 50.9% shooting including 45.7% from 3-point range to go with 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.8 blocks. Regardless of who the Celtics play, Turner could be the most important player for the Pacers in the series because of how much he can open up for others.

Bench

The Pacers had the highest-scoring bench in the NBA in the regular season, getting 46.8 points per game out of their subs, and they've been the most productive scoring bench in the playoffs as well. All teams shrink their bench usage and get more out of their starters in the playoffs and the Pacers are no exception, but their subs still averaged 33.2 points per game.

The Pacers have used four bench players in regular rotation in the playoffs and all four have given the Pacers everything they've needed. Forward Obi Toppin and point guard T.J. McConnell rank 1-2 in total points among bench players in the playoffs with 143 points and 140, respectively, averaging 11.0 and 10.8 points per game in just over 19 minutes per game each. Toppin has been a weapon as a rim-runner in transition and shot it well from outside and McConnell has given the Pacers tenacious full-court defense and his usual buckets and shot creation off relentless dribble drives. Rookie wing Ben Sheppard has been as prolific, but he's shooting 47.4% from 3-point range in the playoffs and center Isaiah Jackson is shooting 59.4% from the floor and has been a force on the glass in limited minutes.

The Celtics relied on their bench much less in the regular season, finishing 26th in bench scoring with 29.3 points per game. But they're seventh among the 16 playoff teams with 21.6 bench points per game, and their bench players lead all playoff squads in field goal percentage (.513) and 3-point field goal percentage (.419). That's because the bulk of their bench minutes are going to lights-out shooters Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser, both of whom are shooting over 41% from 3 in the playoffs. Horford was also productive off the bench for Porzingis' injury and the Celtics have relied on Luke Kornet for backup center minutes since he's been hurt. He's shooting 66.8% from the floor and giving the Celtics needed size in the middle.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: How the Pacers match up with the title-favorite Celtics