Week 9 Expected Points: Commanders re-discovering Jahan Dotson

Earlier this week, I published my Week 8 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 8 Expected Points

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 19.5 Expected Points)

The Lions have been without David Montgomery for the last two weeks, which has allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to emerge as the feature back. In those two games, Gibbs has totaled 37 rushes for 220 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding another 14 receptions for 95 yards on 15 targets. His 37 percent opportunity share over that span is tied for the sixth-highest amongst running backs, while his 15 targets trails only Alvin Kamara (19).

In addition to the gaudy counting numbers and high opportunity rates, Gibbs has been one of the most explosive running backs in the league. Among qualified running backs (min. 10 rush attempts/gm), Gibbs ranks 12th in rush yards over expected (34) and yards after contact per attempt (3.24) and has seen 36.3 percent of rushing yards come on breakaway runs — the seventh-highest total of any back. Gibbs ripped off three breakaway runs (15-plus yards) in Monday's win over the Raiders and is tied for the second-most breakaway runs of any back in the league (7).

For those wondering how he's faring compared to Lions "starting" running back David Montgomery, let's have a look.

With respect to Montgomery, he's turned in a more than acceptable performance for the Lions when healthy, rushing for 94-385-6 while averaging 4.1 YPC. But the big play ability Gibbs has displayed over the last two weeks should swing in his favor. Whether or not it will is anybody's guess. Head coach Dan Campbell wasted little time replacing Jamaal Williams with Montgomery last offseason and has made him the preferred back when healthy.

Gibbs' explosiveness has also shown up in the fantasy box scores, as his 17.8 fantasy points over expected are third-most over the last two weeks. With the Lions heading into their bye week, there's a good chance Montgomery will return in Week 10 against the Chargers. How Campbell chooses to deploy his running backs will either leave fantasy managers celebrating or tilted.

Gus Edwards (19.1 Expected Points)

I refuse to capitulate on Gus Edwards, who I continue to contend is little more than a boom-or-bust RB2. Although, his Week 8 outing against the Cardinals nearly forced me to change my stance.

But I remain entrenched.

Edwards rushed 19 times for 80 yards and a career-high three touchdowns in the Ravens' 31-24 win over the Cardinals. His 29.4 fantasy points were good for an RB3 finish, as he's now finished as a top-six fantasy back in each of the last two weeks. Prior to that, Edwards had one top-24 finish in six games.

Edwards is the unquestioned lead back in Baltimore. His 78.6 expected points through the season rank 24th amongst all backs, while his 12.7 FPOE is good for RB12. However, four touchdowns over the last two weeks have buoyed his fantasy production over that time, but Edwards still has yet to crack the century mark on the ground and is averaging less than one reception per game.

When it comes to his efficiency numbers, Edwards, who has been an above-average back since entering the league in 2018, has shown a decline thus far. His 2.54 YCO/ATT is well below his previous season-low of 3.20, while his breakaway rush yard percent of 17.1 ranks 28th among 43 running backs averaging 10-plus carries per game. His one rush yard over expected sits right in the middle of the pack.

It should go without saying that Edwards' saving grace is his touchdown upside. That said, fantasy managers may be surprised to know he has seen just six rush attempts inside opponents' five-yard lines, which puts him in a five-way tie for 14th-most in the league. Three of those have come over the last two weeks, which could signal an increase going forward. But a lack of consistency in that part of the field will likely cap Edward's upside.

In the same way I'm entrenched in my Edwards stance, other managers are just as entrenched on the other side of the argument. If you're a manager looking to benefit from a hot two weeks and buying into my anti-Edwards argument, consider trading him for a back who could offer more upside the rest of the way.

Rachaad White (TB, 13.9 Expected Points)

I won't go too deep on Rachaad White here, as I touched on him pretty heavily in my Week 8 Snap Report article. But the Buccaneers' second-year back is quietly putting together an Alvin Kamara-lite campaign as the team's lead back.

White's efforts on the ground won't blow anybody away. His negative 95 RYOE is dead last among qualified backs, and he's averaging a meager 3.3 YPC. He's surpassed 50 rushing yards just twice in seven games but has kept fantasy managers in the fight with his receiving upside, particularly over the last two weeks.

Over that span, White has caught 13-of-13 targets for 135 scoreless yards and has 208 total yards from scrimmage. White hasn't scored a touchdown during that stretch but has averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game — good for an RB10 finish.

His 29 receptions on the year trail only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, while his 197 routes run are also third-most amongst running backs. White had just 16 receptions through five games, but his receiving upside has turned into an alternate version of the run game for the Bucs, who are among the worst rushing teams in the league.

Baker Mayfield appears to have honed in on White, who looks like a high-upside RB2 the rest of the way based on recent weeks.

Wide Receivers

Week 8 Expected Points

Jahan Dotson (WSH, 13.3 Expected Points)

The Washington Commanders are still figuring out their offense, but Eric Bieniemy was "in his bag" in Week 8 against the Eagles. Despite the loss, the Commanders prioritized getting the ball out of Sam Howell's hands quickly, resulting in a far more efficient offense. The NFL's sacks-taken leader took only two sacks last week while throwing for 397 yards and four touchdowns.

Jahan Dotson, who has left fantasy managers disappointed for most of the season, finally broke out for 8-108-1 on a season-high 10 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR7 on the week (24.8 points).

Since a dismal Week 6 outing against the Falcons in which he caught zero passes on one target, the Commanders have prioritized Dotson more in the passing game. He saw eight targets against the Giants in Week 7 and has averaged nine per game over the last two weeks.

Dotson is an intriguing WR2/WR3 heading into Week 9 against the Patriots. In addition to being funneled targets, the Commanders continue to be among the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Whether it's Patrick Mahomes or Sam Howell, Bieniemy appears hell-bent on airing it out as the Commanders are fourth in early-down pass frequency (63.4 percent) and second in pass rate over expected (8.7 percent).

With several key receivers on bye this week (DET, SF, JAC, DEN), Dotson could have a bit more value than he would in a normal week where every team is playing.

Demario Douglas (NE, 12.4 Expected Points)

It's not every day we get to talk about a late Day 3 rookie stepping into a major role midway through the season, but that's exactly what Demario Douglas could be on the verge of doing with the Patriots.

Selected by the Patriots in the sixth round of this year's draft, Douglas broke camp with the 53-man roster and was frequently mentioned as the best-looking receiver in training camp. At 5-foot-8, 179 pounds, Douglas is short on ideal NFL size, but his athleticism and explosiveness popped at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Douglas surprised everyone in Week 8 when he saw a team-high seven targets in the Patriots' 31-17 loss to the Dolphins, but Sunday marked the third time Douglas has seen six or more targets in a game. Mainstream media forgets he caught four passes for 40 yards on seven targets in Week 1 against the Eagles, but I digress.

Kendrick Bourne exited at the beginning of the fourth quarter in last week's game and did not return. He's since been ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. Douglas saw three of his seven targets in last week's game come in the fourth quarter and boasted a 27.3 percent target rate in that quarter.

It's a small sample size, but Douglas has been slowly trending toward being the Patriots' WR2. His 12 percent target share on the season is tied with JuJu Smith-Schuster, but over the last four weeks, it's been Douglas earning 17 percent of the team's targets, with Smith-Schuster creeping in at eight percent.

Now facing a Commanders defense that's among the worst in the league against the pass and fresh off trading its top two pass rushers, Douglas could be in for a productive day as Mac Jones' top target — if he's Jones' top target.

He'd be hard to trust as anything more than a WR4 in his first game sans Bourne, but Douglas is an intriguing stash while the Patriots try to navigate life without him.

Quentin Johnston (LAC, 11.0 Expected Points)

A lot of stud receivers run the risk of being out or catching passes from lousy quarterbacks in Week 9. At the time this was written, Drake London (groin) had yet to practice, while Jordan Addison, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Marquise Brown could be catching passes from Jaren Hall, Brett Rypien, and Clayton Tune.

Another receiver who was held out of practice on Thursday was Joshua Palmer (knee). Palmer and the Chargers don't play until Monday, meaning he still has time to get on the field and suit up for Week 9. If Palmer can't play, it will likely be Quentin Johnston playing opposite Keenan Allen.

Johnston has gotten off to a slow start to his pro career. In his first six games, the rookie first-rounder had seven receptions for 64 scoreless yards. Then, in Week 8 against the Bears, Johnston emerged to catch 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards while playing on 70 percent of snaps — all career-highs.

At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Johnston is built in the mold of Mike Williams while being a more explosive athlete.

Johnston and the Chargers get a Jets defense that's allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (196.9) and the fourth-lowest QBR to opposing quarterbacks (78.1). But much like Jahan Dotson, with a handful of upper-echelon receivers on bye and several lacking high-end quarterbacks, Johnston could be on the fantasy radar as a WR3 if Palmer cannot go. We'll know more about Palmer's status after the Chargers practice on Saturday.

Tight Ends

Week 8 Expected Points

Trey McBride (ARI, 25.8 Expected Points)

I mentioned Trey McBride as a Week 8 streaming option against the Ravens last week after the Cardinals placed Zach Ertz on injured reserve, but nobody could've expected what we saw last week.

The second-year tight end erupted for 25.5 fantasy points to finish as the TE1 on the week while catching 10-of-14 targets for 95 yards and a score. McBride was the preferred target of Joshua Dobbs — who has since been traded to the Vikings, but the Cardinals have targeted their tight ends heavily all season.

After last week's game, the Cardinals now rank third in tight end targets per game (10.3), but the younger, more athletic tight end looks more capable of opening up the passing attack. Below is how McBride compares to Ertz in some advanced metrics.

Betting on McBride in Week 9 against the Browns and with Clayton Tune at the helm feels like a risky proposition. But with Kyler Murray on the mend (and an outside chance of playing this week), McBride has a chance to provide TE1 fantasy production the rest of the way if the copious targets continue.

Logan Thomas (WSH, 13.0 Expected Points)

Bye weeks are obliterating the tight end position in Week 9, as three of the top-six leaders in fantasy points per game are out. Fortunately, the TE7, averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game, is playing and potentially available for streaming.

That man, of course, is Logan Thomas.

I already touched on the absurdly high pass rates the Commanders are seeing under Eric Bieniemy, but Thomas has benefitted mightily from Washington's pass-heavy ways. Below are some graphics courtesy of our friends at RotoViz.com to better show this.

Thomas has seen six or more targets in four of eight games this year, although we can't ignore the fact he exited early with an injury in one of those games. The Commanders TE1 has been heavily involved in the offense and is on a 17-game pace for 70-680-7 on 97 targets. With the exception of his receiving yards, all are top-10 at the position.

Now set to face a Patriots team that has allowed 13.7 points per game to tight ends over the last five weeks, Thomas could have top-five fantasy upside in a week where so many studs are sidelined.