Week 5's Booms and Busts: Detroit Lions are full of fantasy football rule breakers
It’s been a while since the Detroit Lions were front page news. The team hasn’t won a division title in 30 years. The last Detroit playoff win came in 1991. The Lions have made the tournament just three times in the 2000s.
Most of those losing seasons weren’t fantasy friendly, either. As great as Calvin Johnson was, mixed with some Matthew Stafford, only one of his teams ranked top 10 in scoring. Detroit fans have been waiting — and suffering — for a long time. Even their two signature players of the past three decades — Johnson and Barry Sanders — shocked the world with sudden retirements before their age-31 seasons.
That’s why last year’s 9-8 team garnered so much buzz; these aren’t the same old Lions. And through five weeks of the fresh season, Detroit has justified the love.
The motto of this team might be “no stars, just talent.” Even without ADP draft darlings Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday, the Lions ripped the Panthers, 42-24. This is a fun team, a deep team, and a fantasy-friendly team, no matter who’s on the field. Detroit's now 4-1, averaging about 30 points a game.
2023 Lions are filled with fantasy rule breakers
Second-contract running backs are fantasy afterthoughts? David Montgomery didn’t play like that here, rolling for 129 total yards and a touchdown. And if the Panthers put up a bigger fight, Montgomery could have posted monster numbers.
We think of Monty as an inside guy, but he hit the outside on his 42-yard touchdown run. He's poised to smash his mid-70s ADP.
Rookie tight ends are fantasy picks to avoid? Sam LaPorta keeps mocking that theme. LaPorta has charted as a top 10 tight end in 4-of-5 starts, including a two-touchdown game Sunday. He’s a blast, for fantasy managers and play-callers alike. Don't mess with those Iowa tight ends.
It’s no longer sharp to target value picks at quarterback? Jared Goff begs to differ. Goff threw for three touchdowns Sunday and ran for a fourth, placing him as the QB3 when the early-window finished.
If you needed a Detroit sleeper pick Week 5 — perhaps navigating the injury and bye-week blues — plenty of unheralded players came in. Josh Reynolds posted a useful 4-76-1 line, and Craig Reynolds produced in spot duty (7-52-1 on the ground). And at least Kalif Raymond (3-45-0) beat his yardage prop.
It might take a while for Jameson Williams to enter the fun, however. He made his sophomore debut and it didn’t go anywhere — two short receptions, two total yards, three targets. Remember, last year was a washout season for Williams, and this year’s summer prep time was curtailed by injury. I need to see Williams produce before I proactively rank or start him.
Detroit’s success is tied to several ancillary factors and subtle things. The offensive line is one of the five best in football. OC Ben Johnson is a rising star, sure to be aggressively pursued by other teams next year. Detroit’s also built a sneaky little home-field advantage, at a time when many teams are struggling to protect their turf. Goff’s quarterback rating jumps around 20 points for Detroit home games, running his stats since the 2021 trade.
Goff’s biggest tests might come in the next two weeks, when the Lions travel to Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Those are plus defenses and unfriendly environments. But Detroit draws plenty of soft landings in the second half of the season, those green-shaded opponents that highlight the schedule. The Raiders, Chargers, Bears (twice), Broncos and Vikings all count as favorable matchups, pinball scoring likely. Get your quarters ready. (It’s a shame the Minnesota rematch is tucked into Week 18, usually fantasy-irrelevant in standard leagues.)
Of course there will be plenty of mouths to feed when everyone heals up, assuming that actually happens. But Goff and Ben Johnson seem capable of spreading the ball around and supporting several bankable options. I'm prepared to start St. Brown, Montgomery, LaPorta and Gibbs any week they're healthy, with Goff and Josh Reynolds at least worthy of proactive consideration. The 2023 Lions are a team for the fantasy scrapbook, a show we’re likely to remember. I’ll be saving my ticket stub.
Miami's offense, too good to be true
If the Lions are a fantasy treat, the Dolphins are a fantasy dream. Miami has the fastest offense in the league, and the Dolphins' usage tree is one of the narrowest in the league.
The speed was on full display in the romp over the Giants, with De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill breaking the velocity chips. And the usage was delightfully concentrated; just two running backs saw a carry against New York, and Tua Tagovailoa only targeted six players.
This enabled all five of Miami's fantasy keys to hit their marks in Week 5. Achane (12 touches, 165 total yards) had two early touchdowns, with Raheem Mostert (12 touches, 78 yards) scoring late. Hill and Jaylen Waddle had similar target shares, though Hill (8-181-1) did a lot more with his opportunities than Waddle did (5-35-1). And although Tagovailoa had a couple of interceptions — one of them returned 102 yards for a New York touchdown — we'll take 308 yards and two scores as an acceptable bottom line.
Some play designers are obsessed with showing off with a cast of thousands. Sometimes that's the way to play it, but let's hear it for Mike McDaniel, who steers the ball to his best players.
Speed Round
• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua managers both received reasonably good news. Kupp was a difference-maker right away, and Nacua maintained a playable market share. Even with a touchdown, Tutu Atwell is a fantasy drop, assuming no one gets hurt.
• I would have been thrilled to see 13-16 touches for Breece Hall, but 25? Oh man, here we go. He could be a league-winner, tied to a strong defense and an offense that needs to run the ball. Hall is physical, has good vision, and will hit plenty of home runs. He's be a possible first-round pick if we redrafted right now, and never gets past the second. Wheels up.
• Jaleel McLaughlin doesn't have the body type for a bell-cow role, but that doesn't mean the Broncos can't at least feature him. He's easily their best back, a walking splash play
• Rashee Rice hasn't received a bankable share of routes yet, but he's taking steps towards the Kansas City Circle of Trust. He knows how to win against zone and has already earned the confidence of Patrick Mahomes. It's a "wait for it" play, but Rice is the long-term receiver I want to hold in this offense.
• It's not vintage Joe Burrow yet, but his play improved and he always targets Ja'Marr Chase off the bus. Chase would go top 6 in any redraft, and I wouldn't even fight you if you wanted him as early as No. 2 overall. Tyler Boyd was out-targeted by Trenton Irwin, which no one expected.
• I'm guessing the Colts backfield eventually morphs into a 70-30 to 60-40 split every week, in Jonathan Taylor's favor. But when Zack Moss got rolling Sunday, it made it easy for the Colts to give Taylor a slow reintroduction to NFL life. Moss isn't a special pass catcher, but he's at least proven capable in that area this year.
• It's been a good year for older wide receivers, especially target hogs like DeAndre Hopkins and Adam Thielen. Hopkins is the only piece of the Tennessee passing game you can trust; even with nine looks Sunday, Chig Okonkwo didn't come in.
• There's nothing playable in the New England offense, not even the running backs. Hunter Henry has dried up, too. Does Bill Belichick have the time and the patience for a full tank and rebuild? This roster is screaming for it.
• Every Pittsburgh-Baltimore game is a bizarre rock fight and a mess for fantasy. Best news for both teams, especially the Ravens: the rematch is tucked into Week 18, so irrelevant in most fantasy leagues.
• The Falcons threw the ball more proactively and Kyle Pitts and Drake London combined for more than half of the targets. That's all we're asking for, Arthur Smith.
• C.J. Stroud impresses me every week, but I wonder if he's throwing to protect the interception streak at times. Sometimes you have to take chances and push the ball downfield, even if it's a case or trying to lock in long-term and larger rewards at the possible expense of the current play in hand.
• The Giants in the playoffs feels like something that happened five years ago. I'd stream anyone's defense against the Giants right now.
