Week 16 Fantasy Booms and Busts: Packers and Jets pay your bills
It’s uncommon for any football game to match fantasy expectations, let alone exceed them. But Green Bay’s 44-38 overtime victory at the Jets was the gift that kept on giving.
Aaron Rodgers (442 yards passing, four total touchdowns) had one of those “I’m still here” games, while Sam Darnold (341 yards, three touchdowns) looked like a future star. Davante Adams had 11 catches and a game-winning grab; stuff you’d project. Robby Anderson rolled through a 9-140-1 line, to the delight of Team America.
But perhaps the real needle-mover in this match was what happened in the backfield.
Green Bay sophomore Jamaal Williams, inheriting the starting gig from the injured Aaron Jones, was terrific throughout (156 total yards, 6.3 YPC, one touchdown), running physically and decisively. Although he lost two short touchdown runs to his quarterback, Williams was the only Green Bay back to log a carry in this game, playing all but five snaps.
New York’s Elijah McGuire wasn’t as efficient as Williams; his 14 carries only went for 35 yards. But McGuire added 50 yards on three catches and had a pair of scores, one by air, one by land. Once again, it was a case of monopolizing the work; understudy Trenton Cannon had just three touches.
Williams and McGuire showed up on plenty of championship rosters; late-season waiver adds who were easy to trust in Week 16 because they had projectable volume in advance of the game. Opportunity is the focal point of fantasy production, and the key is being able to reasonably expect that opportunity in advance of Sunday. A tidy usage tree and backfield depth chart is a lovely thing.
Before they close the book on the Meadowlands, give a nod to Chris Herndon, New York’s rookie tight end. He booked a 6-82-1 afternoon on just seven targets, quietly adding to an effective first season. We’re generally overjoyed when any first-year tight end isn’t overwhelmed by the demands of the position. I’d like to have a bunch of Herndon in my fantasy portfolio next year.
• Rob Gronkowski used to throw guys out of the club. Now he’s the old guy in the club. A holiday bagel for Gronk, no catches against Buffalo. It’s sad to watch him play, after all the attrition and all the leakage from his game.
• I understand that some people want to prioritize tight end next year, but how many blue chips are there? Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, sure. George Kittle, probably. And that’s it. If you want Kelce and Ertz, you’ll need to act in the second round, maybe in the late-first round. Kittle looks like a third or fourth-round pick.
• Adam Gase needs to be fired for simple reasons. Miami’s offense isn’t devoid of playmakers, but they refuse to give Kenyan Drake an extensive workload and they haven’t been able to consistently unlock Kenny Stills. At this point they should know what Drake can and can’t be and they refuse to find out. Frank Gore would have been reasonable as a depth add this year, but to add him as a starter blocks any chance for upside, it caps your range in such a pedestrian area. Take a damn swing, Gase. Try to be great.
• Patrick Mahomes is the obvious MVP, though the media might give it to Drew Brees as his lifetime achievement award. This Brees payback trophy wouldn’t be necessary had the media not botched the 2009 MVP voting, when Peyton Manning robbed Brees of his rightful trophy. (My buddy Frank Schwab, for what it’s worth, voted for Brees that year.)
• C.J. Anderson’s seismic Week 16 underscores how messy the Arizona defense is, and perhaps more importantly, how quickly a running back can get acclimated in a new environment. Give Anderson, a heady pro, and the Rams some credit for the quick boot-up, of course, but of all the offensive skill positions, running back is, by far, the one with the easiest take-off.
• I’d never say that Quarterback Wins are a perfect stat, but it’s a mistake to say they’re completely meaningless. Jameis Winston seems to be one of those quarterbacks that’s just good enough to lose with.
For Winston’s career, his indexed-quarterback rating (compared to league average) is 96, four percent below the league mean. Some interceptions are always going to be random, but quarterbacks with a touchdown/interception rate close to one (Winston is 15:13 this year) aren’t going to challenge for the playoffs. Tampa needs a complete reboot, but I’m not sure if they’ll talk themselves into a second Winston contract.
• Baltimore is the left-handed team, the knuckleballer, the Shrek that no one wants to play. It’s extremely difficult to prepare for a team with this different a style. The Ravens should hide Wink Martendale’s cell phone; their DC is going to be in demand. I don’t know how long-term sustainable Lamar Jackson’s game is, but he’d terrify me as a playoff opponent.
The Ravens made a very good Chargers team look like a 3-13 outfit on Saturday. I’ll give Los Angeles a pass for the one-off, but I’ll also move Baltimore up on my rankings.
