Week 12 Expected Points: Is Odell Beckham Ready to Lead the Ravens' Passing Attack?

Earlier this week, I published my Week 11 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

Week 11 byes: No teams on bye

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 11 Expected Points

James Cook (BUF, 15.6 Expected Points)

In his first game with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, James Cook emerged to rush 17 times — tying a season-high — while totaling 73 yards on the ground. He added another three receptions for 29 yards and a touchdown on four targets. Cooks' 15.6 expected points marked a new season-high for the second-year running back, who continues to look explosive every time the ball is in his hands.

Cook's 5.7 yards per touch are tied for second-best in the league with Breece Hall and trail only Jaylen Warren and Antonio Gibson, whose 6.4 yards per touch lead all qualified backs.

His fluctuating touches and lack of target upside have frustrated fantasy managers this season, but Brady leaned into his best running back for much of Week 11's win over the Jets. We can't overlook Ty Johnson sneaking in for 3-47-1 to vulture another potential scoring opportunity from Cook, but Cook handled 30 percent of the team's opportunities and 45 percent of the rushing share. He also played on both of the Bills' snaps from inside the five-yard line.

It's a one-week sample, but life was very good for Cook and his fantasy managers under Brady. Despite his frustrating usage at times, the volume has largely been there for Cook. While not elite, his 15.2 opportunities per game are on par with Brian Robinson, Najee Harris, and James Conner, who are all treated as volume-based RB2s. With that said, Cook is the far more explosive player and is capable of doing much more with his touches than the plodders mentioned above.

Despite his underwhelming production at times, I never wanted to give up on Cook. I'm hopeful Brady continues to find ways to get him more involved as he did in Week 11 when the Bills take on the Eagles in a potential shootout.

Gus Edwards (BAL, 13.7 Expected Points)

As a well-renowned Keaton Mitchell fan, it pains me to acknowledge Gus Edwards' continued role in the offense. While the short-yardage and goal-line roles were always expected to remain intact, Edwards has continued to lead the Ravens' backfield in rush attempts and opportunity share. Here's how things have shaped out over the last two weeks since Mitchell broke out in Week 9.

Mitchell appears to have fully supplanted Justice Hill as the Ravens' RB2, but Edwards continues to dominate on the ground. His 12-62-2 line in Week 11 was exactly what fantasy managers have expected all season.

Edwards has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and continues to be a touchdown-dependent player. However, he's excelled in his role, punching in a score on nine of his 13 rush attempts from inside the opponent's five-yard line.

I'm no fan of Edwards' role, as it continues to limit Mitchell. But my unbiased take is the Ravens remain a good offense, ranking sixth in EPA per play (0.059) while leading the league with 45 trips to the red zone. Unfortunately for fantasy managers like myself, hoping for more Keaton Mitchell outbursts, Edwards' role is #good for his fantasy managers. Being touchdown-dependent is okay when the team is scoring a lot of touchdowns. Baltimore's 30 touchdowns from inside the red zone are three more than the Bills, who are second with 27.

Gus Edwards SZN continues to roll on and will likely continue against the Chargers.

Khalil Herbert (CHI, 11.9 Expected Points)

Khalil Herbert returned from injured reserve last week against the Lions and immediately led the Bears with 11.9 expected points. I touched on Herbert in my Week 11 Snap Report, so I won't go too crazy here, but his workload last week was encouraging. Herbert led the Bears with 16 rushes for 35 yards and saw all three of the team's backfield targets.

The Bears lost D'Onta Foreman to an ankle injury last week, which undoubtedly led to Herbert resuming the RB1 role he saw pre-injury. Foreman didn't practice on Thursday and is probably a long shot to play on Monday night against the Vikings. Even if he does suit up, I'd still expect Herbert to serve as the team's primary ball carrier.

Before going down in Week 5, Herbert was the RB22 with 54.7 expected points, leading the Bears with a 26 percent opportunity share. He was also tops in the league in efficiency, ranking sixth in YCO/ATT (3.57) and eighth in YPC (5.3) among qualified running backs (min. 10 ruATTs/gm).

Fantasy managers who are in need of some volume at running back this week can look to Herbert, who should dominate backfield touches if Foreman is unable to go.

Wide Receivers

Week 11 Expected Points

Justin Watson (KC, 18.2 Expected Points)

I'm not rushing to start Justin Watson in Week 12 against the Raiders, but his 11-target outing against the Eagles is something to discuss. Watson's 11 targets in last week's loss to the Eagles marked a career-high for the six-year vet, as he's quietly having a career year with the Chiefs. His 36 targets and 329 yards are both career highs.

Neither is impressive, but Watson's snap share has seen a significant increase in the Chiefs' last two games.

Through the first eight weeks of the season, Watson's 42.4 percent snap share ranked fourth amongst Chiefs receivers, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 62.8 percent snap share leading the team. In the Chiefs' last two outings, Watson's snap share has ballooned to 61.5 percent, trailing only Rashee Rice (63.8 percent). MVS's snap share has plummeted to 49.2 percent. It seems highly unlikely that MVS will be earning more snaps after his egregious drop in Week 11, which would have likely sealed the win for the Chiefs had he managed to haul it in.

Watson has run a route on 56 percent of the Chiefs' dropbacks in his last two games, which isn't great, but it also leads all Chiefs receivers over that span. The receiver position has been in flux for the Chiefs all season. It's possible Watson is just the latest guy to get featured as Andy Reid and company attempt to figure things out.

Among receivers with 30-plus targets, Watson's 19.4 aDOT leads the league, but more than half of his targets (55.6 percent) have also come in the short and intermediate parts of the field. On his four intermediate targets against the Eagles, Watson managed four receptions for 50 yards and a score. Receivers tethered to Patrick Mahomes continue to be one of the most valuable assets in fantasy. Of course, we need to see some consistency from a receiver before we can trust them in fantasy. Watson's unexpected outburst in Week 11 has my attention.

Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL, 12.0 Expected Points)

An early injury to Mark Andrews may have been the culprit for Odell Beckham Jr.'s 116-yard outburst against the Bengals, but with Andrews now (likely) out of for the season, it's worth questioning whether or not OBJ could see more involvement going forward.

For starters, last Thursday's outing marked the third time Beckham had seen seven targets in a game this season. Those three games have all fallen within the last five weeks, as Beckham's 27 targets over the last five weeks account for 64.3 percent of his targets on the season. His 21 percent target share over that span ranks 32nd in the league and is tied with Mark Andrews. RotoPat notes in his Week 12 rankings that "it's been fun to connect Mark Andrews' lost targets to Zay Flowers. It's accurate to say it has been Odell Beckham, not Flowers, coming on strong over the past month."

RotoPat is indeed correct. It's why he's RotoPat, and we are not.

During his recent hot streak, OBJ has more targets, yards, and touchdowns than Flowers, with Flowers' 19 percent target share ranking third on the team — trailing Beckham by a slim margin. Beckham's 352 air yards lead Flowers by a wide margin.

As far as his on-field production at large is concerned, Beckham hasn't been worth the one-year, $15 million contract he signed with the Ravens this offseason. Although it likely helped seal the deal with Lamar Jackson and his long-term extension, which is valuable in itself. However, Beckham has played well when given his opportunities. Beckham is averaging 5.6 YAC/REC this season, which ranks 11th among qualified receivers and is the third-highest mark of his career. His 1.92 YPRR is his best since 2018, which was his final year with the Giants.

While I expect Isaiah Likely's role to grow in the coming weeks, the second-year tight end has managed only three targets in what is technically two games without Andrews (Weeks 1 and 11). OBJ's recent ascension has a good chance of continuing for the remainder of the season. His efficiency, coupled with increased volume, may be enough to put him on the high-end WR3 radar for the rest of the season.

Tight Ends

Week 11 Expected Points

Cade Otton (TB, 9.5 Expected Points)

It's been a steady climb for Cade Otton, who continues to see more work in the Buccaneers' passing game.

After seeing just 17 targets through the Buccaneers' first five games, Otton has totaled 29 targets in his last five games (5.8 TGTs/gm). His 29 targets in Weeks 7 through 11 rank ninth amongst all tight ends, while his 50.3 expected points are good for 10th. He's run a route on 79.2 percent of his team's dropbacks over that span, which is fourth-most behind T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and George Kittle, while his 168 total routes run is third-most. Otton has caught four or more passes in four of his last five games and turned in a 4/49 line last week against the 49ers. It isn't great, but it's serviceable as far as fantasy tight ends are concerned.

Otton and the Bucs get a Week 12 matchup against a Colts team that has allowed 16.5 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the last five weeks. They've allowed 10-plus targets to the position in three of those five games. Anybody needing a streaming option can look to Otton, who has run two more routes than Mike Evans and only three fewer routes than Chris Godwin since Week 7.