Way too early Penn State football game-by-game predictions, spring edition
Penn State is hitting the midway point of its spring football practice schedule and the annual Blue-White Game is just a couple of weeks away, but why should that stop us from taking a guess at how each game of the regular season will play out?
I have been mulling over the Penn State football schedule since the end of the Rose Bowl and I continue to think everything is laid out for another solid season for the Nittany Lions. If things come together with a new starting quarterback as smoothly as most anticipate it will, and if the offense can establish its cohesiveness with the passing game, this has a chance to be a fun year on the offensive side of the football. And the defense has some talent to show off as well, although it has some fair questions to answer as well. But my trust in defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has me thinking this defense is going to be just fine.
As most seasons tend to do in the Big Ten East, Penn State’s biggest hurdles will likely be Michigan and Ohio State. As long as the Nittany Lions don’t stub a toe elsewhere on the schedule, and there are some games worth highlighting, then Penn State may just need to win one of those games against the Buckeyes and Wolverines in order to be in a bigger conversation at the end of the year.
Here are my spring football way-too-early predictions for the upcoming season. As you can see, I feel spring is overflowing with optimism.
Game 1: Starting the year off with a win over the Mountaineers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Penn State hosts West Virginia to open the 2023 season in the first meeting between the two old regional rivals since before Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993. It’s been a long time coming but Penn State should manage to send the Mountaineers back to Morgantown with a loss. [autotag]Drew Allar[/autotag] has a few miscues as he finds his comfort zone living up to the hype, but the leaders of this one will come on the ground with [autotag]Nick Singleton[/autotag] and [autotag]Kaytron Allen[/autotag] continuing to shine and racking up hard-earned yards.
Prediction: Penn State 36, West Virginia 23
Game 2: An easier win over the Blue Hens
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
After opening the season with a game against a Big 12 opponent, Penn State will welcome Delaware to Happy Valley. The FCS program will put up an admirable fight for a bit in the first half but Penn State will have all of the big plays needed to create separation before halftime and be able to get more players involved in the second half. Singleton and Allen each rush for 100 yards before getting an early rest in the second half.
Prediction: Penn State 46, Delaware 17
Game 3: A dangerous road trip to Illinois
Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
While Illinois may have overachieved a bit last season, I certainly don’t think the Illini were a fluke. Brett Bielema has reshaped the Illini into a legitimate Big Ten West contender, and that should once again be the case this season despite some solid coaching hires at Wisconsin and Nebraska restoring some hope for those two programs. But Illinois is tough defensively, and Penn State will be in for a true battle in the third week of the season. They’ll scratch their way to a win here to avoid an upset, so don’t expect an easy one in this spot.
Prediction: Penn State 33, Illinois 25
Game 4: Another Big Ten West contender approaches
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Penn State returns home in Week 4 for another Big Ten contest against a contender in the Big Ten West division. After a physical outing against Illinois, Iowa gives Penn State some trouble at times, but Penn State just outclasses the Hawkeyes with athletes making big plays, which has generally been the biggest difference in this series for a number of years now. Penn State wins a bit of a defensive battle under the lights.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Iowa 20
Bonus prediction: This is your primetime whiteout game on NBC.
Game 5: Winning ugly against the Wildcats
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Penn State and Northwestern are on much different playing fields, but there is something about Northwestern that suggests Penn State may have to win an ugly game. Pat Fitzgerald’s teams know how to slow down a game and let the defense keep things from getting too out of control against Penn State. That should be the case here as Penn State doesn’t play a sharp game after two grueling contests with Illinois and Iowa. But they do dig deep to find a way to win this game in the fourth quarter and go into the bye week with an otherwise clean 5-0 record.
Prediction: Penn State 33, Northwestern 24
Game 6: Making short work of the Minutemen
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
After getting a week off on the schedule, Penn State returns to action at home against UMass in mid-October. It will be the perfect opportunity to get back in sync before a massive game the following week. Because of the game on deck, don’t expect too much flash in this one. This should be a game dictated entirely on the ground as Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen power Penn State to an easy win over the Minutemen.
Prediction: Penn State 35, UMass 13
Game 7: Trouble in Columbus?
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio State has dominated the series with Penn State for years, especially during the James Franklin years. Franklin has led Penn State to just one victory over the Buckeyes, but that one win catapulted Penn State to a Big Ten championship run. This could very well be a matchup of unbeaten top 10 teams on October 21, but the first loss of the season could be sitting and waiting right here for Penn State.
Expect a great game, but Ohio State still has an edge where it counts the most and that leads to a big win for Ohio State while sending Penn State home with its first loss of the year.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Penn State 27
Bonus prediction: CBS airs the game at 3:30 p.m. ET
Game 8: Big rebound opportunity against Indiana
The Herald-Times
After suffering its first loss of the season, expect Penn State to get off to a bit of a sluggish start against a scrappy Indiana team in Beaver Stadium the following week. But Penn State manages to find its groove early enough to prevent a letdown performance that costs them another loss. Drew Allar shines with four touchdown passes and Penn State overwhelms Indiana for a solid rebound victory.
Prediction: Penn State 42, Indiana 23
Game 9: Looking ahead gives Penn State a scare?
Maryland is a dangerous team and is capable of giving any team on its schedule a good scare. That will be the case here as Maryland pushes Penn State to the limit in College Park. Taulia Tagovailoa puts up big numbers and at times picks apart the Penn State defense, but the defense is what leads Penn State to a victory by coming on strongly in the fourth quarter with key tackles and pressure. Penn State doesn’t get tripped up here but will have to breathe a huge sigh of relief when it is over.
Prediction: Penn State 39, Maryland 36
Game 10: Taking down the Big Ten champs
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
The biggest home game o the year will be played in the middle of November when the Big Ten championship race is coming down the final stretch. Penn State hosts the two-time Big Ten champions from Michigan for what should be a monster game in the East Division race. Having already lost to Ohio State, this is a must-win game for the Nittany Lions and they find a way to pull it off. Penn State gets off to a good start in the first half and has to hold off a good second-half surge from Michigan. Hold on to your butts.
The win creates a three-team race between Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan going into the final two weeks of the regular season. Michigan hosts Ohio State in the final game of the regular season.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Michigan 24
Bonus prediction: FOX uses the game for a Big Noon Kickoff and ESPN brings College GameDay to Happy Valley.
Game 11: No letdown against Rutgers
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
After a massive victory the week before against Michigan, Penn State is fueled and energized to finish off the regular season with authority. Cruising to a victory over Rutgers will be on the agenda for the final game in Beaver Stadium during the season. Rutgers has sometimes forced Penn State to win in less-than-pretty fashion the past few seasons, but Penn State will be flying high in this matchup.
Prediction: Penn State 52, Rutgers 17
Game 12: College Football Playoff spot on the line in East Lansing?
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
It all comes down to this. Penn State will have a chance to play in the Big Ten championship game on the final Saturday of the regular season, but it must take care of its own business regardless of the outcome of the Michigan-Ohio State game in order to keep hope alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Penn State could be left out of the Big Ten championship game but an 11-1 record could be enough to get into the College Football Playoff even without a Big Ten championship (see: Ohio State 2022).
Penn State will have to weather the elements in East Lansing against a Michigan State team that should be improved in 2023 after a disappointing 2022 season. And playing at home, Michigan State should be a problem for the Nittany Lions. But not quite enough of one as Penn State powers its way to a win on the road and lets the playoff selection committee stew on its playoff profile.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Michigan State 23
Bonus prediction: Penn State closes out the regular season with a CBS mid-afternoon kickoff.
