Vanderbilt baseball fall mailbag: Which freshmen are standing out, plus leadoff predictions?
Vanderbilt baseball fall workouts have started in earnest. The Commodores started with intrasquad scrimmages and held an exhibition with Rutgers on Saturday in which they were outscored, 16-6, across 18 innings.
Vanderbilt's biggest question is obvious: Who replaces All-American Enrique Bradfield Jr. in center field? The Commodores will also look to find a third starter to replace Hunter Owen and several new bullpen contributors with four top relievers getting drafted.
From the 2023 roster, 25 of 37 players return. Vanderbilt also brings in 17 freshmen and four transfers, with a recruiting class ranked No. 3 in the country by Perfect Game.
The Tennessean answers reader questions about the Commodores as the 2024 preseason commences:
What is your prediction for the leadoff spot? — Daaron_D
Vanderbilt has tinkered with two players in the leadoff spot in scrimmages: Jonathan Vastine and RJ Austin. Of the two, Austin has a more traditional leadoff profile. He makes more contact and walks more than Vastine, but his base-stealing isn't as good − he's fast, but he nevertheless got thrown out in three of his seven attempts in 2023 and four of his nine attempts in the Cape Cod League.
Vastine is a better baserunner and his doubles-oriented approach could play well at the top of the order. Despite that, Vastine struck out too much last season (25% of the time) and didn't walk enough (9.6%) to fit well at the top of the order. He could still be a leadoff man, though, if his production looks closer to what he put up on the Cape, where he had a .397 on-base percentage, a 12.7% walk rate and an 18% strikeout rate.
The most impactful base-stealer is UMass-Lowell transfer Jacob Humphrey, who stole two bases in Sunday's scrimmage. The question with Humphrey is whether the bat is good enough to see the most plate appearances on the team. If not, he wouldn't be a good fit in the leadoff spot.
Who could fill in the closing role this season? Or should we expect a by committee situation? — Aidan Fasano
I'm going to make a bold prediction and say the closer will be someone who wasn't on the 2023 team.
Air Force transfer Sawyer Hawks has closing experience and is my early favorite for the job, though Vanderbilt may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. Coastal Carolina transfer Levi Huesman showed the type of slider that could play in high leverage. In Tuesday's scrimmage, he threw strikes. A freshman could also fill the role, with Ethan McElvain standing out as the most advanced rookie.
After watching some fall ball, are you more, less, same concerned about the offense? — McGoogs
A handful of scrimmages are not enough to change how I feel about the offense, so I will say it's the same level of concern. I don't think having a roster without a single player who has ever hit double-digit home runs in a season will work in the SEC in 2024, and I haven't seen any signs of a huge power breakout from any of the returning bats. There's still time for someone to surprise me, though.
What freshman do you think makes the biggest immediate impact?
It could be McElvain, but with so many experienced arms on the pitching staff, he may have trouble getting innings right away. Because of that, I'll go with one of the two power bats in the class who could see designated hitter at-bats right away: Braden Holcomb and Matt Ossenfort. Holcomb has big physicality that the rest of the position-player group lacks − he looks like he belongs with the pitchers − and during batting practice he hit a ball to the scoreboard Tuesday. Ossenfort was named Most Outstanding Hitter of the Cal Ripken League over the summer despite no college experience. Freshmen are always a risky proposition, so I doubt that both of them work their way into the starting lineup. I'm willing to bet that one of them will, though, and will provide an injection of much-needed power.
Attempt to predict the starting 8 defensively. — B Doug
The scrimmages give a pretty good idea of this as it's easy to see where everyone has been taking the most reps. I would say I'm fairly confident at catcher and the infield, with those being:
C: Alan Espinal
1B: Chris Maldonado
2B: Jayden Davis
3B: Davis Diaz
SS: Jonathan Vastine
The outfield is more in question. I think one of those spots (most likely right field) will be taken by RJ Austin, with the others taken by two of Troy LaNeve, Jacob Humphrey and Calvin Hewett. I haven't seen enough of either Hewett or Humphrey to get a read on which one of them might be the leader in that battle. Both are standout defenders, so it probably comes down to who hits better.
HLIBOKI, ESPINAL RETURN Why Sam Hliboki, Alan Espinal turned down pro opportunities to return to Vanderbilt baseball
Best guesses on starting pitching rotation, best newcomer, and most improved. — JamJack
Carter Holton and Devin Futrell are the obvious names for the weekend rotation. The third spot is too early to predict at this point, but I would peg the top candidates as Bryce Cunningham, Andrew Dutkanych and Sam Hliboki. Each of them has one specific thing they need to solve to take that spot. Cunningham needs more consistency, Dutkanych needs to throw more strikes and Hliboki needs to be able to get left-handed hitters out.
Because it's hard for freshmen to see significant playing time, the best newcomer is likely to be one of the transfers. I'd go Sawyer Hawks on the pitching side, Jayden Davis from a hitting standpoint.
The easy candidate for most improved is redshirt freshman catcher Logan Poteet, who had a huge summer in the NECBL. He's even worked out at first base a bit. The problem is that it's unclear how much playing time there will be for him with both Jack Bulger and Alan Espinal back for their senior years and the infield crowded as it is.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.
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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt baseball mailbag: Freshmen studs and leadoff predictions?
