Upheaval in AFC East, but are Miami Dolphins poised to pounce? | Habib

Think back to when the AFC East was labeled the most intriguing division in the NFL.

Think back to when the New York Jets said they “embrace” the target on their back.

Think back to when coach Mike McDaniel said being in the AFC East would help the Dolphins reach their goal of a Super Bowl because they’d be “battle-tested.”

This was just seven months ago.

In case anyone missed signs of a wave of change would be barreling into this division like Niagara Falls, the message was unmistakable Wednesday. Never mind that the Bills have won the past four division titles. They were divorcing themselves of defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer, plus center Mitch Morse, all of whom have Pro Bowl credentials. They were parting with receiver Deonte Harty, whose 96-yard punt return against Miami was critical in the game that decided the 2023 division champion. And they’d said goodbye to free agent defensive end and A.J. Epenesa, a Dolphins nemesis.

Already, there is talk the Dolphins might claim some Bills castoffs. Each would fill a need. Only problem: It conveniently overlooks why these players are available in the first place — both Miami and Buffalo are over the salary cap and have until Wednesday to rectify that.

This brings us to the question: When McDaniel says "adversity is opportunity," does that adversity extend all the way up to western New York?

This is where we’ll mention the Jets and New England Patriots, but only out of obligation. Dysfunction within the Jets — the kind Aaron Rodgers alone cannot fix — was outlined in January by The Athletic, which said its sources “described a team riddled with excuse-making, a paranoid head coach, an ill-equipped offensive coordinator and an organizational tunnel vision on the quarterback that rubbed some teammates wrong.”

Finally, Jerod Mayo is hitting the reset button following Bill Belichick’s 4-13 swan song in New England, which is discovering how the other half lives when it comes to franchise quarterbacks.

Foundation of Dolphins defense takes a hit

In an alternate universe, it would seem the AFC East should be there for the taking for the Dolphins in 2024. The “all-in” approach by general manager Chris Grier might have done the trick last year if not for a second consecutive brutal season with injuries.

That’s only half the story. Fact is, the Dolphins’ so-called window may have slammed shut a year faster than anyone figured. The defense that ranked 10th in the NFL last season is on the brink of losing its foundation on all three levels: secondary (Xavien Howard), linebacker (Jerome Baker) and line (Christian Wilkins). Howard definitely won’t return, Baker would have to agree to a pay cut and Wilkins is a free agent. If the sides couldn’t reach agreement last year, what are the chances the Dolphins would be willing to win a bidding war this year?

Now consider other free agents (linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, center Connor Williams, guard Rob Hunt, safety DeShon Elliott) and the possible retirement of left tackle Terron Armstead. Once all those familiar names are grayed out, at least for now, what’s left is a skeleton of a starting lineup based on players who are signed, healthy and proven.

On offense: quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, fullback Alec Ingold, tight ends Durham Smythe and Jonnu Smith and receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. On the offensive line? Tackle Austin Jackson and center Liam Eichenberg can’t man all five positions.

The defense is even leaner. Keeping in mind edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb aren’t likely to be at full strength early next season, you’re left with tackle Zach Sieler, linebackers David Long and Duke Riley, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Kader Kohou and safety Jevon Holland. That leaves five holes. Anyone seen Channing Tindall? Cam Smith?

Grier touched on how the Dolphins are in the fix they’re in while meeting with reporters at the NFL combine in Indianapolis last week.

“Every year you can’t go and make those moves that people get excited for,” Grier said in a reference to blockbuster trades for Hill, Chubb and Ramsey. “You’ve seen it around the league that it’s not sustainable. At some point, you have to reel it back a little bit and add some youth and influx, and then cherry-pick here and there.”

In the NFL, there's no substitute for shrewd drafting

Therein lies today’s problem.

Hill, Ramsey and Chubb represent the three biggest chunks of the $255.4 million Dolphins salary cap for 2024. We won’t know Tagovailoa’s number until his deal is done, but going by his current figure ($23.2 million) and adding Armstead’s ($20.8 million), those five players alone account for 50.8% of the cap.

What’s a team to do? Draft well. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of the past two championships, drafted eight of their offensive starters in the Super Bowl. On defense? Another eight. Compare that to the Dolphins, who for their wild-card game in K.C. started a total of nine home-grown players.

Grier isn’t shy about swapping draft picks. The deals for Hill and Chubb included two first-rounders and a second-rounder. In return, the Dolphins collected Pro Bowl skill. Those veterans are proven. Nailing a bull’s-eye on draft picks has been more elusive.

In 2023, for example, five picks were traded away and the first-rounder was forfeited because of tampering. The only impact draftee thus far has been Achane.

Teams might overcome one such draft year, but two in a row? The Hill trade all but cleaned out the cupboard in 2022, leaving the Dolphins with zero picks in the top 101. Ironically, the most significant impact of any of the 2022 picks was by the last selection, seventh-rounder Skylar Thompson, who was pressed into the starting quarterback role due to injuries to Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater.

Going back just one more year, Grier’s top three picks were Waddle, Phillips and Holland. That’s about as solid a trio as the franchise has ever had.

But it can’t be overstated how important it is for the team to unearth draft gems. Think what the Dolphins would be without Mark Clayton (eighth round, 1983), Jason Taylor (third round, 1997) or Reshad Jones (fifth round, 2010). More recently, few contributions have been made by the Dolphins’ Day 3 picks. Since 2018, the only standouts have been Smythe (fourth round), Van Ginkel (fifth) and running back Myles Gaskin (seventh). Because of the rookie salary scale, such players offer four years of production at little cost. At least the Dolphins found gems on the free-agent market in Sieler and Kohou.

What will Chris Grier do with six picks?

Grier faces a challenge trying to make the Dolphins greater than what they were in 2023 even though he has less cap capital with which to work. The Dolphins own six picks in the 2024 draft, including No. 21 overall. If they hold onto it, it would mark the first time the Dolphins have spent a first-round pick since taking cornerback Noah Igbinoghene 30th overall in 2020. On the flip side: Outside of a second-rounder (No. 55), all four of the Dolphins’ other selections come in the second half of the draft, in Round 5 or later.

How much would it take to win the AFC East in 2024? Great question, especially with the Bills overhauling their roster. White, 29, was a first-round pick who had three interceptions against the Dolphins. So did Poyer, about to turn 33 and like White a former All-Pro. While Poyer made only $5 million last season, White made $16.4 million. Morse, who soon will be 32, would be a nice fall-back if Williams doesn’t return, but he pulled in $11.5 million in 2023. It at least provides a framework for the kind of market Grier would be entering.

While nobody expects the Patriots to be a factor in 2024, the Jets are the division’s mystery team. The Athletic painted a picture of dysfunction and distrust, quoting one unnamed coach as calling it “a (bleeping) mess.” At one point, coach Robert Saleh called a meeting with his staff to express his frustration with leaks. He threatened to take their cellphones.

The story also pointed to the 34-13 loss to the Dolphins on Black Friday that left New York 4-7 and cranked up the heat on Saleh. Particularly embarrassing was the Hail Mary by backup Tim Boyle that was intercepted by Jevon Holland and returned 99 yards for a touchdown with no time left in the second quarter. On a broader scale, there’s the question of whether GM Joe Douglas or Rodgers is really calling the shots.

More: Now, the hard part. Dolphins must fill many voids with smart, cost-effective signings | Schad

A weakened field naturally would enhance the Dolphins’ chances of winning the division for the first time since 2008. But would it truly help the Dolphins in the long run?

“If you’re trying to actually get to the AFC championship, if you’re trying to win the AFC championship, if you’re trying to win the Super Bowl, all those things, you better be a very good team and battle-tested,” McDaniel said last summer. “And our division should help us do that, but it’s going to be stressful.”

Free agent signings can commence on Wednesday. Behind that is the draft, April 25-27. Much can change. Four teams welcome it.

Dolphins reporter Hal Habib can be reached at hhabib@pbpost.com. Follow him on social media @gunnerhal.

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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Are Miami Dolphins in position to seize opportunity in AFC East?