Updated ESPN Ohio State football game-by-game remaining schedule prediction

·3 min read

The Ohio State football team took care of business in extremely impressive fashion yet again on Saturday night against Indiana 54-7. It was the continuation of a team squad that continues to get better and is a much-improved version of what we saw in a Week 2 loss to Oregon weeks ago.

But the schedule is back-loaded with games against Big Ten East foes Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan coming in the next few weeks, so it would be prudent to tread lightly and continue to keep the foot on the proverbial gas pedal when it comes to preparation and focus.

Each week, we follow what the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) has to say about the percentage probability of Ohio State winning its remaining games, and as the Buckeyes have looked more explosive on offense and more sound on defense, those percentages continue to change for the better. Add to it the flaws that we’ve begun to see with some of the teams in the Big Ten — and well, it’s beginning to look like the Big Ten title might run through Columbus yet again.

Here’s a look at the updated ESPN FPI game-by-game win probabilities for all the games on Ohio State’s schedule from here on out.

Oct. 30 vs. Penn State

Oct 23, 2021; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Devon Witherspoon (31) forces Penn State Nittany Lions running back Noah Cain (21) out of bounds on a run during overtime at Beaver Stadium. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.0% (up from 79.4%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Jonathon Cooper (18) chases down Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) during the third quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, September 28, 2019, at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch]

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 80.8% (up from 77.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell signals to his receivers prior to taking the snap in the third quarter against Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 93.9% (up from 90.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s new head football coach Mel Tucker is greeted by Sparty on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2020, at the Capital Region International Airport in Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 86.5% (up from 83.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) rushes the quarterback as Wisconsin Badgers offensive lineman Logan Bruss (60) blocks during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 62.6% (up from 58.2%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1

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