UNC basketball vs. Duke: Score prediction, scouting report for ACC rivalry
The arrival of February means it’s time for college basketball’s greatest rivalry.
No. 3 UNC basketball (17-4, 9-1 ACC) and No. 7 Duke (16-4, 7-2) will renew the battle of the blues this weekend at the Dean E. Smith Center. ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Chapel Hill on Saturday morning for its weekly show.
As ESPN researcher Bryan Ives noted earlier this week, Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) will be the 49th time Duke and UNC have met with both ranked in the top 10. The Tobacco Road rivals split the last 48 such matchups with an average score of 76.8 points per game to 76.0.
The Blue Devils won both meetings last season in head coach Jon Scheyer’s first year as head coach. UNC is 20-18 against Duke at the Smith Center.
Here’s a look at some other things to know and a score prediction for the 261st meeting between the Tar Heels and Blue Devils.
Will Duke’s Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach be able to slow down UNC’s RJ Davis?
Last season, Duke’s Jeremy Roach was the primary defender on UNC’s RJ Davis, who averaged 14 points on 38.7% shooting in two losses to the Blue Devils. With Roach a bit banged up, Duke’s Tyrese Proctor – a 6-foot-5 guard – could be chasing Davis. Either way, the Blue Devils have to find a way to slow down Davis, who is averaging 21.5 points on 44.9% shooting this season. He’ll get his, but Duke has to make Davis work hard.
X-FACTORS: UNC basketball vs. Duke: Caleb Foster, Cormac Ryan and other X-factors
UNC-DUKE TICKETS: UNC basketball vs. Duke tickets: What it'll cost to watch the Tar Heels and Blue Devils
COLLEGE GAMEDAY: What to know about ESPN’s basketball ‘College GameDay’ for UNC vs. Duke
Kyle Filipowski vs. Armando Bacot remains a key matchup in UNC vs. Duke
It’s hard to ignore the guard talent that will take the court this weekend, but Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds) and UNC’s Armando Bacot (13.4 points, 9.9 rebounds) will still play a vital role in deciding which squad gets the edge.
In his first trip to the Smith Center, Filipowski had 22 points and 13 rebounds last season. In nine games against Duke, Bacot has averaged 15.1 points and 9.4 rebounds with three straight double-double performances. The player who can stay out of foul trouble will likely be on the winning team when the buzzer sounds.
Defense, rebounding and 3-point shooting
In last season’s games, Duke’s defense was the difference down the stretch as the Tar Heels failed to score in the final minutes each time and finished with 57 points. This season, UNC has produced more consistent defense but Duke has produced a more consistent offense.
The Blue Devils also won the rebounding battle 46-40 at Cameron and were even with UNC at the Smith Center last season. This season, Duke was out-rebounded in three of its four losses and the Heels were bested in that category in two of their four defeats.
In conference play, Duke has made 40.3% of its 3-pointers to lead the ACC and UNC has limited league opponents to a league-best 26.8% from long range. The Blue Devils are 5-1 when they reach double-digit treys. It's a great matchup across the board that should produce another classic game in the rivalry.
UNC vs. Duke score prediction
UNC 81, Duke 77: The Blue Devils have turned the tables on their road struggles, but the Tar Heels are 9-0 at the Smith Center this season. If it was at Cameron, I’d side with Duke. But UNC has won by an average of 17.8 points against five Power Five opponents in Chapel Hill.
Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball vs. Duke: Score prediction, scouting report
