UFC on ESPN 40 predictions: Santos or Hill? And who will be next ‘TUF’ winners?
Santos | Luque | Pauga | Miller | Sakai | Cachoeira | |
MMA Junkie readers’ | 
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Ken Hathaway  2018 Champion |
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Mike Bohn 2014 Champion |
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Abbey Subhan |
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Matthew Wells |
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Simon Samano |
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Matt Erickson | 
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Farah Hannoun |
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Nolan King |
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Brian Garcia 2017 Champion |
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George Garcia |
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Danny Segura |
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The UFC is back in its Las Vegas home base this week with a key light heavyweight bout, plus a pair of finals for Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter.”
UFC on ESPN 40 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)
In the main event, former light heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos (22-10 MMA, 14-9 UFC) takes on Jamahal Hill (10-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC). Hill is a big -340 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Santos is +250. Our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers largely are taking Hill with a big 9-2 picks lead.
In the co-feature, Vicente Luque (21-8-1 MMA, 14-4 UFC) takes on Geoff Neal (14-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) at welterweight. Luque is a 2-1 favorite at the betting window and like Hill has a 9-2 lead from our pickers.
In the heavyweight final of Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Zac Pauga (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) meets Mohammed Usman (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC), the brother of UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. Pauga is the biggest favorite on the main card at -290, but he has just a 7-4 lead in the picks.
In the “TUF 30” women’s flyweight final, it’s a close fight at the sportsbook between Juliana Miller (2-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and Brogan Walker (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Miller is a slight favorite at -125, but Walker has a 6-5 picks edge.
Augusto Sakai (15-4-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC) takes on -280 favorite Serghei Spivac (14-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) at heavyweight. But despite the big odds in Spivac’s favor, he has just a 7-4 picks lead.
And to open the main card, Priscila Cachoeira (11-4 MMA, 3-4 UFC) meets Ariane Lipski (14-7 MMA, 3-4 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout. Lipski nearly is a 2-1 favorite and has an 8-3 lead from our staff members.
In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Hill (77 percent), Luque (86 percent), Pauga (56 percent), Walker (57 percent), Spivac (78 percent) and Lipski (73 percent) are the choices.
Check out all the picks above.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 40.
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UFC on ESPN 40 commentary team, broadcast plans: Three-man booth set
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UFC on ESPN 40 breakdown: Can Jamahal Hill take out ex-title challenger Thiago Santos?
