UFC betting: Is Chris Daukaus a good value play as 3-1 underdog vs. Curtis Blaydes?

Getting knocked out by Derrick Lewis is nothing of which Chris Daukaus ought to be ashamed, or embarrassed about. Lewis is the UFC’s all-time KO leader, and among the others he’s knocked out is Curtis Blaydes.

Blaydes just so happens to meet Daukaus on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) in Columbus, Ohio, in the main event of UFC Fight Night.

But that KO of Daukaus by Lewis did have a huge impact in one spot: the betting line.

Daukaus was a slight favorite against Lewis, roughly around 7-5. But at BetMGM, Blaydes is -400 and Daukaus is +310.

Daukaus entered the Lewis fight on a five-bout winning streak and though he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, each of those victories was by TKO. Daukaus’ last nine wins were all by TKO.

It’s difficult, though, to win a power-for-power battle against Lewis, as Blaydes found out on Feb. 20, 2021. Blaydes was controlling the fight with his wrestling, but Lewis caught him with a big shot and the fight was quickly over.

The impact of those fights seems negligible, because neither man has the punching power that Lewis possesses. Nonetheless, the oddsmakers have gone in a very different direction on Daukaus after that bout.

So does that make Daukaus a good value play at better than 3-1? This is where it gets tricky. Daukaus is 4-1 in the UFC and 12-4 overall, but his two best wins were over Shamil Abdurakhimov and Aleksei Oleinik, neither of whom is close to Blaydes' level.

It’s easy to wonder if the whole of Blaydes adds up to be less than the sum of his parts. He’s a massive, burly wrestler who has tremendous power and conditioning. Blaydes has also defeated Abdurakhimov and Oleinik, but he’s got high-quality wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt, among others.

So he has that experience of fighting — and winning — against the best in the division, which Daukaus doesn’t have.

Blaydes also isn’t worried about fans booing, or UFC president Dana White getting angry, and he’ll use a wrestling-heavy style and keep his opponent down on the mat for as long as is needed.

He showed that most notably against Volkov, when he said he would do it and then went out and executed. It didn’t win him any fans, but it got him a victory over a quality opponent and sent him into a big match with Lewis.

That might be the X-factor in the fight. If Blaydes can get Daukaus down and apply top pressure, his odds of winning improve. Daukaus’ key is going to be to get past Blaydes’ jab and to a distance where he’ll be able to land to the body but not get taken down. It’s a delicate balance.

I believe Blaydes will be able to take Daukaus down, so I will go with him to win. I don’t want to lay 4-1, so I’m going to play both sides here. The most likely outcome is Blaydes taking Daukaus down and winning by ground and pound. So I’ll bet two units on him at -110 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.

But Daukaus is very good on the ground, though he hasn’t shown that in the UFC, and he’s +1300 to win by submission. So I’ll cover my base a bit given that there will be a lot of grappling and scrambles involved and play a half-unit on Daukaus by submission.

So, if Blaydes wins by KO, I’ll make a $150 profit, given that I’ll get $200 for his win and lose the $50 on Daukaus by submission. If Daukaus pulls the surprise and gets the submission, I’ll make $650 for correctly picking that but lose the $220 I bet on Blaydes for a final profit of $430.

Of course, I’ll lose all bets if the fight ends any way other than Blaydes by KO or Daukaus by submission.

Other bets for UFC Columbus

• My mind says to take Bryan Barberena, but with Matt Brown fighting at home in possibly his last bout, I’ll lay one unit on Brown by KO/TKO or DQ at +175.

• I’ll play Askar Askarov by decision at -125 over Kai Kara-France.