UFC 284 betting, odds: Islam Makhachev's improved striking, efficient takedowns make him a wise choice
Alexander Volkanovski stands on the precipice of history, with a lot of things in his favor. He's the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world according to the UFC ratings, holds the featherweight championship, has won 22 fights in a row and 25 of 26 overall and is 12-0 in the UFC.
On Saturday in his home country of Australia, he'll attempt the ultimate challenge when he steps up a division to fight lightweight champion Islam Makhachev for his belt and pound-for-pound supremacy in the main event of UFC 284 in Perth.
Despite the home-field advantage, bettors don't much like Volkanovski's chances of becoming only the fifth fighter in UFC history, after Conor McGregor (featherweight and lightweight), Amanda Nunes (bantamweight and featherweight), Daniel Cormier (light heavyweight and heavyweight) and Henry Cejudo (flyweight and bantamweight), to hold two weight-class titles simultaneously.
At BetMGM, Makhachev has been bet up to a -400 favorite, with Volkanovski a +300 underdog. Makhachev by submission is just +150, an alluring number for one of the best submission artists in the UFC.
It's Makhachev's wrestling that has bettors going his way.
One of the things that's often helpful when fighters are so close and the belief is that a bout could go either way is to look at how they did when the competition got better. Makhachev has fought 13 times in the UFC, so we'll look at his first seven fights and compare them to his six most recent fights. We'll assume the six most recent bouts represent the best opposition of his UFC career.
Then we'll take the same look at Volkanovski, splitting it into two six-fight halves.
Makhachev was 6-1 in his first seven fights, with three finishes. He submitted Leo Kuntz and Kajan Johnson and knocked out Gleison Tibau. He was knocked out in his second UFC fight by Adriano Martins. In the other three of his first seven, he won by decision over Chris Wade, Nik Lentz and Arman Tsarukyan.
In his most recent six UFC fights, Makhachev is 6-0 with five finishes, four submissions and a knockout. He submitted Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Dan Hooker and Charles Oliveira, knocked out Bobby Green and won by decision over Davi Ramos.
Volkanovski was 6-0 in his first six UFC fights with three TKOs, over Yusuke Kasua, Jeremy Kennedy and Chad Mendes, and decisions over Mizuto Hiroda, Shane Young and Darren Elkins. In his most recent six, he's been 6-0, as well, with one finish, a TKO in the fourth round of Chang Sung Jung at UFC 273 on April 9, 2022.
Makhachev has gotten better as his competition has increased. He's improved his finish rate and he hasn't lost. Volkanovski isn't finishing fights as frequently, but he is still winning.
In Makhachev's 13 UFC fights, he's only give up two takedowns and in nine of the 13, his opponent did not even attempt a takedown. In his first seven fights, Makhachev's significant strike attempts came in at a 62.2 percent success ratio, and he averaged 26.4 significant strikes per fight. In his most recent six, his significant strikes attempted success rate 57.3 percent and he averaged 48.0 significant strikes a fight.
The statistics show that he's become more successful as a striker even as he's increased in competition level.
He's had seven submissions even though he's only attempted 41 takedowns in 13 fights. He's outstanding at finishing a fight when he gets his opponent down. In his seven wins by submission, he was 2-for-3 on takedowns against Oliveira; 1-for-1 against Hooker; 3-for-6 against Moises; 3-for-4 against Dober; 1-for-1 against Johnson; and 3-for-5 against Kuntz. That's 14-of-20 on takedown attempts in fights in which he's gotten a submission.
That would suggest that even though Volkanovski is extremely difficult to submit, he'd better keep the fight standing. His problem is that Makhachev has gotten extraordinarily proficient over his last six using the threat of the takedown to set up his strikes.
Volkanovski is one of the smartest fighters in the sport, as well as the toughest.
Thus, I will pick Makhachev to win at -400 and I'll bet that the fight goes the distance at +130.
More picks for UFC 284
Jimmy Crute at -190 to win over Alonzo Menifield.
Randy Brown-Jack Della Maddalena fight to go the distance at +150.
