UFC 284 betting, odds: How to bet Islam Makhachev-Alexander Volkanovski main event
This Saturday night in Perth, Australia, lightweight champion Islam Makhachev faces long-time featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski in the main event of UFC 284. The stakes of the champion vs. champion headliner will be Makhachev's lightweight strap, while a win over Volkanovski will clearly position Makhachev as the UFC's No.1-ranked pound-for-pound king. The most interesting aspect of Saturday night's mega-fight is how contrasting the individual journeys were for each fighter to get to this moment.
After cleaning out the featherweight division and earning his 22nd consecutive win (12-0 UFC), Volkanovski needed a challenge. Moving up a weight class for the opportunity to become a two-division champ is the natural next step. The problem is the man who stands in his way. Before securing the lightweight title in dominating fashion in October, some floated whether Makhachev's meteoric rise through the lightweight rankings was warranted. Makhachev erased those doubts by submitting Charles Oliveira rather easily in the second round to claim the title. Islam looked more like a -300 favorite despite closing in the -185 range.
It will probably be some time before we see the lightweight champion at that price again. Makhachev is currently a -400 favorite against Vollkanovksi, the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. When you see a fighter as decorated as Volkanovski, who hasn't lost since 2013, as such a massive underdog, it looks like great value on the surface. But to me, it's a signal of the respect Islam has earned in the market and how the weight class impacts the potential outcome. So is it wise to lay 4 to 1 against Volkanovski? That's a hard sell as well. Here's how I bet the main event.
Islam Makhachev (-400) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+300)
Volkanovski is one of the most talented strikers in the Octagon. He is technically solid everywhere, impressively adapts mid-fight and camouflages his attacks with solid sequencing. In addition, his versatility and solid jab allow him to mix in his kicks and keep his opponents off balance while he controls the pace. As the fight progresses, he has the gas tank to fuel his volume and overwhelm his opponents. In his last three title defenses, he has outstruck his opponents by massive margins (183-87 on average). His offensive wrestling is solid for a featherweight, but at 155 pounds, he is now in Makhachev's world. And nobody should want to be wrestling in Makhachev's world.
Unlike his fights at featherweight, Volkanovski's win condition is solely in the striking realm. Makhachev's only loss of his career, when he got clipped by Adriano Martins, gives us a glimpse of how Volkanovski can stun the world as a +300 underdog. He has to be aggressive and sharp, with good lateral movement, to prohibit Makhachev from cutting off the cage. Volkanovski has defended 73% of takedown attempts, and I respect his grappling defense, but this is where the move up in class makes a massive difference. I have watched in awe as he survived and even reversed some precarious situations, but I don't think that translates to lightweight against a grappler like Makhachev.
What also makes Makhachev so dangerous is his recent improvements in his boxing. It allows him to set up his opponents patiently without leaving himself open by over-committing to his takedowns. I can see Volkanovski having some success early in the fight, but it won't take long for Islam to latch on to openings and put Volk on his back. Fighters often speak about how difficult it is to prepare for Makhachev's strength, and Volkanovski may be coming into this fight overconfident regarding the grappling aspect. It's hard to imagine any natural featherweight having success on the mat with Makhachev.
Volkanovski's speed and footwork will only take him so far, as I see Makhachev as the clear side. The size difference is a massive challenge when you look at it through the lens of having to fight arguably the most dominant grappler in the sport at his natural weight class. I don't see Volkanovski lasting all five rounds here, so I bet Makhachev to finish the fight inside the distance at -155 at BetMGM. The most likely outcome is via submission, which you can get at +150, but I'd rather have the scenario of Islam TKO'ing him from mount as well.
The bet: Islam Makhachev via KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-155)
