UE, USI men's basketball enter home stretch exceeding preseason expectations

EVANSVILLE — Both the University of Evansville and University of Southern Indiana men’s basketball teams enter the home stretch exceeding preseason expectations.

Granted, those expectations among outsiders were low. But it’s February with meaningful Division I games to be played in Evansville. UE appears to be near full strength with the return of top scorer Ben Humrichous, who has been hindered by a foot injury. With him, the Purple Aces have a fighters’ chance to post their best season in league play since 2016. Meanwhile, USI has weathered cuts and bruises all winter, and they may pay off with another berth in the conference tournament, once again hosted at Ford Center in Downtown Evansville.

It all hinges on these next four weeks.

Where does each team sit? What tough games remain? How about some trends to note and storylines to follow? Here is a glance at what’s in front of each as the postseason knockout stage approaches.

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The schedule gets much tougher for the Aces

Entering Wednesday’s slate of Missouri Valley Conference games, UE (14-9, 5-7) sits in a tie for eighth with Belmont and Illinois State. The middle of the pack is crowded with that trio just one game back of another three-way tie between Murray State, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State (6-6).

Half the league is a game apart. With eight to play, there is ample time to make a big move up or down in the standings.

If the regular season ended yesterday, the Aces would be the No. 8 seed at “Arch Madness” in St. Louis. Most prediction models have them falling a seed line or two based on their remaining schedule. While 9-2 at home, three of their final four games at Ford Center are against Indiana State, Drake, and Bradley – the top three teams in the MVC, in order.

Up first is Bradley (17-6, 9-3) at 7 p.m. Wednesday. The Braves have won 11 of their past 12.

Aces’ improved defense to be put to the test

UE then travels Saturday to Murray State before returning Tuesday to host Drake. Bradley and Drake previously beat UE by 36 and 49, respectively. Murray won by 21. Each of those was without Humrichous (15.1 ppg).

“On both sides of the floor he's very effective,” UE head coach David Ragland said. “When he's playing, we're 16 points better offensively and 10 points better defensively. That's a 26-point difference right there that is very needed and helpful, especially with the teams we have coming up. We lost big at Bradley, and it would've been very helpful to have him. We have him now and it'll help us going into the game plan.”

According to KenPom, the Aces’ best chances of winning the rest of the way appear to be at Illinois State, home against Southern Illinois and at Illinois Chicago. If they can manage to go 3-5 down the stretch, they’d finish 8-12 in the MVC and that would be their best mark since 2016.

While the schedule gets tough, UE has taken care of business lately.

The Aces have won three straight following Saturday’s gutsy 63-62 victory at Valparaiso – their first MVC road win of the season. It was a continuation of a more disciplined defensive effort, Ragland said. After struggling for most of league play — they ranked last in defensive efficiency at 1.10 points per possession allowed — they’ve held each of their last three opponents to 0.95 or fewer.

UE will get a sense of how much of that improvement is legitimate against Bradley. The Braves lead the MVC in offensive efficiency (1.20 PPP), offensive rebound percentage (30.6) and 3-point field goal percentage (39.6).

“This is a different team than we played earlier in January,” Bradley head coach Brian Wardle said.

“You can tell they are a different team when (Humrichous) is on the floor. He brings a lot of versatility on both ends – smart, high-IQ basketball.”

USI looks for a boost at home

Currently, USI (6-17, 3-7) would qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament for the second straight year since making the jump to D-I. Not every team qualifies, and with the championships back in Evansville, it is noteworthy that the Eagles are in the second of a four-year probationary period and cannot make the NCAA Tournament.

USI sits alone in eighth place in the OVC – good for the final spot in the tournament. It holds a game lead over Tennessee Tech, Lindenwood and Southeast Missouri State.

Eight games remain. Two at home, then four in a row on the road before finishing with two more back at home.

USI, unlike UE, has a generally favorable home slate remaining. KenPom predicts USI to be favored in three of the four remaining games at Screaming Eagles Arena, beginning 7:30 p.m. Thursday against former UE head coach Marty Simmons and his Eastern Illinois Panthers (10-13, 4-6). The Eagles (4-7 at home) turn around Saturday night against SIU Edwardsville, a team they lost narrowly to back on Jan. 11.

The four-game road trip from Feb. 15-24 presents a difficult challenge, however. All four entered Tuesday atop the OVC, led by Morehead State (18-5, 9-1).

Jeremiah Hernandez is getting it done at the line

USI split a pair of road games this past week by winning 74-71 Thursday at Tennessee Tech – snapping a five-game losing streak in the process – before falling 79-74 Saturday to Tennessee State.

The victory over Tech marked the Eagles’ most efficient offensive showing against a D-I opponent this season. Junior guard Jeremiah Hernandez continued to make a case for First Team All-OVC with a team-high 19 points. He leads the league with 23.0 ppg, which can be traced to his ability to draw fouls (he ranks seventh in the nation with 7.7 per 40 minutes played) and his free-throw shooting (86.7% in league play).

In that regard, Hernandez would’ve seemingly fit in well on Simmons’ teams at UE. Simmons’ top players annually led the MVC in scoring in part by being adept at finding contact.

But the Eagles must protect the ball to draw a win Thursday against Eastern Illinois. They’re turning the ball over at a 21.2% rate in league play – the second-highest in the OVC. Meanwhile, the Panthers are one of the most aggressive teams in that aspect. They lead the league in forcing opponents into a 21.9% turnover rate (8.3 steals per game).

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: UE, USI basketball enter home stretch exceeding preseason expectations