The top 11 running backs in the 2021 draft class
When we say that “Running backs don’t matter” in today’s NFL, I would opine that the more accurate slogan would be, “Running backs don’t matter if they don’t give an offense clear and definable traits and attributes.” It’s a bit clunkier, and you’re not going to see it on a T-shirt, but the running backs who come into the NFL with skill sets to help their professional offenses hit a different level will always be valuable, no matter how fungible backs may been seen at any given time.
Look at the running backs selected in the first round since 2016. That gives us a five-year view, and in that five years, the majority of NFL offenses have moved further and further away from the running back as the force multiplier of an offense. Eight backs have been taken in the first round in that time, and outside of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley, they haven’t been bellwether guys. Moreover, McCaffrey and Barkley have seen their overall value diminished due to injuries, and before Dak Prescott got hurt last season, the Cowboys were doing everything possible to put the offense in Prescott’s hands.
So, maybe it’s smarter to target the backs in later rounds who you think can accentuate what you want to accomplish schematically and philosophically. Few backs have been more valuable to their teams — in very different ways — than Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. Well, the Titans, who took Henry in the second round of the 2016 draft, want to beat you up and take your lunch money. Henry is the perfect back for that. Conversely, Sean Payton prefers his backs to be multi-positional tone-setters, and Kamara has proven to be the logical extension of Reggie Bush in Payton’s playbook. Which made him a ridiculous bargain in the third round of the 2017 draft.
The Seahawks got Chris Carson, their zone power back, in the seventh round of the 2017 draft, and the Packers took Aaron Jones in the fifth round that same year — which was before we understood what a perfect fit he’d be as a more versatile player in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Former head coach and offensive shot-caller Mike McCarthy didn’t understand Jones’ value, but LaFleur saw it right away.
Moving to the 2021 draft class of running backs, there’s a lot of specific talent here, and let’s not diminish any of these guys just because they’re not 300-carry dominators. Look closer and see just how they can help specific offenses.
How they can, in effect, matter.
Note: The percentiles in parentheses listed next to pro day data are compared to all historical athletic testing (combine and pro day) at the respective position of the player. Kudos to Pro Football Focus, and their Pro Day Schedule and Results Tracker, for this. As there was no scouting combine in 2021, and pro day schedules vary, we may not have all testing information for all prospects at publication time.
1. Javonte Williams, North Carolina
(Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'10" (29th) Weight: 212 (45th) 40-Yard Dash: 4.55 (45th) Bench Press: 22 reps (76th) Vertical Jump: 36 inches (68th) Broad Jump: 123 inches (78th) 3-Cone Drill: 6.97 seconds (64th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.09 seconds (91st) Bio: A star at North Carolina’s Wallace-Rose Hill High School, Williams gained 2,271 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns in his senior season and won a state title in the 4 x 100 relay. Recruited lightly, he accepted an offer from North Carolina, played decently his first two seasons, and went off in 2020 with 1,140 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns on just 157 carries, adding 305 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 25 catches. Overall, Williams gained 2,297 rushing yards and scored 29 touchdowns on 366 carries, with 50 catches for 539 yards and four touchdowns. His career 6.3 yards per carry ranks eighth all-time in ACC history. Stat to Know: Per Pro Football Focus, Williams forced 85 missed tackles in 2020 — 76 as a runner (the highest total in the country), and nine more as a receiver. And of all NCAA running backs in 2020, only Michael Carter — Williams’ backfield partner — had more rushing attempts of 15 or more yards than Williams’ 27 for 660 yards. Strengths: Blunt-force runner with the ability to create after contact at all times -- in fact, he seems to be energized by contact. Starts his runs with a bit of patience, reading his blocks, and then gains short-area acceleration with a collision in mind. Uses forward lean and nasty intentions to consistently bull through tacklers. If you're arm-tackling him, prepare to see the back of Williams' jersey in a big hurry. Presents the ability to put his shoulder in a defender's numbers and start a push the defender can't match. Outstanding contact balance allows him to reset quickly after a hit and keep running at a high speed. Decisive runner who can bounce outside when the need arises -- he isn't limited to bullying between the tackles. Has a great sense of how to get skinny in open spaces when they're there. Has a third-level next gear that makes him very tough to deal with in open space. Shows the same after-contact potential as a receiver in swing passes and simple screens; he's looking for a fight, and your average cornerback or safety isn't going to like it. Excelled on offset handoffs when he had to get to the edge quickly. Has the ability to win on leak and release routes after the block. Willing and aggressive blocker with a linebacker's mentality. Weaknesses: Williams isn't as diverse from a route perspective as some other rushers in this class, but that's most likely a matter of reps in a more interesting offensive system. He did get bottled up to a point by Notre Dame's frequent stacked boxes last season (11 carries for 28 yards). And you wonder just how long he'll be able to hold up with his violent, frenetic playing style. Perhaps he's best suited as a member of a committee as he was in college, where he never had more than 166 carries in a season. Other than that, not a lot of dings here. Conclusion: I've probably watched Williams' tape more than I needed to in order to determine whether he had the potential to be a big-time NFL back. That came pretty quickly. But when a player is this much fun to watch, that tends to happen. Williams would be a plus-level back with his speed and acceleration alone; what makes him special at an allegedly fungible position is the power and violence he brings to the field. You just don't see everything in one package at any position as you do with Williams at his. He's as close to scheme-transcendent as any back in this class, and in any class in the last few years. NFL Comparison: An unholy combination of Marshawn Lynch and Nick Chubb. Like Lynch at his peak, Williams has the obvious ability to blast through multiple opponents for serious gains, and like Chubb, he has a fabulous combination of sudden quickness and sustaining power. When every play has the potential to be a highlight play, that's a great way wind up as RB1 in a draft class. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JE65d6M9OY0&t=183s&ab_channel=TarHeelTapes
2. Najee Harris, Alabama
(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 230 (unofficial) 40-Yard Dash: N/A Bench Press: N/A Vertical Jump: N/A Broad Jump: N/A 3-Cone Drill: N/A 20-Yard Shuttle: N/A Bio: Everyone wanted Harris as he came out of Antioch High School in California -- he was the No. 1 running back in the 2017 recruiting class per 247Sports, so it's no surprise that he wound up at Alabama to become the next in a line of NFL-ready running backs. 2019 was Harris' first season as the main man in the run game for the Crimson Tide with 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns on 209 carries, along with 27 receptions for 304 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up in 2020 with 1,466 yards and 26 (!) touchdowns on 251 carries, adding 43 catches for 452 yards and four touchdowns. For his Alabama career, Harris gained 3,843 yards and scored 46 rushing touchdowns on 638 carries, adding 80 catches for 781 yards and 11 touchdowns. Harris' 4,624 career yards from scrimmage ranks eighth in SEC history, just ahead of the 4,575 gained by some guy from Auburn named Bo Jackson from 1382 through 1985. Stat to Know: Harris was perhaps the most balanced runner behind both zone and gap blocking schemes last season, with 123 carries in zone and 128 in gap. Harris also led all the backs in his draft class with 81 rushing first downs. Strengths: Harris has a sustaining running style in which he will assess the gaps, get to the hole, and move through with impressive power. Has the lateral movement skills to bounce outside and make gains after contact. Harris isn't going to make anyone miss Barry Sanders in the open field, but his footwork is good enough to confuse defenders, and he will then use his power to take extra yards out of the play. His ability to jump over defenders is pretty interesting and original -- there's a four-minute highlight reel of him doing so, and you can't say that about most backs. Smooth, natural receiver who helps his quarterback present play-fakes very well and releases into the flat quickly. Ran a fairly diverse route tree, especially in Steve Sarkisian's expansive system. Weaknesses: While most everything about Harris' playing style is smooth and professional, there isn't a lot of "bust-out" potential -- he had just 18 rushes of 15 or more yards last season on 251 attempts. You will often see defenders catching up to him on longer runs; Harris' second- and third-level acceleration is nothing special. Less a blocker and more an innocent bystander in pass protection, with more whiffs than you would like to see. Did his thing behind dominant offensive lines, and there may not be enough in his improvisational athletic profile to rack up huge numbers if his NFL front five is less impressive. Conclusion: Let the 81 first downs last season be your ultimate guide to Najee Harris. He is a table-setter for an offense in the run game, and I believe he has the potential to do so at the next level. There are still NFL offensive coordinators who want to build their systems around backs who brick-wall their way through defenders to keep drives going, and that might be Harris' superpower. NFL Comparison: Steven Jackson. Like the former Rams, Falcons, and Patriots running back, who played in the NFL from 2004 through 2015 and gained 11,438 rushing yards and scored 69 touchdowns on 2,764 carries, adding 461 receptions for 3,683 yards and nine touchdowns, Harris is a powerful, sustaining, versatile back who can be the epicenter of an offense. What you will get with him is a back who does just about everything at a plus level... but if you're looking for consistent explosive plays, he may not be your ideal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPOWjL3eB58&t=102s&ab_channel=kielpro88
3. Travis Etienne, Clemson
(Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'10" (39th) Weight: 215 (54th) 40-Yard Dash: 4.41 seconds (87th) Bench Press: 18 reps (42nd) Vertical Jump: 33.5 inches (33rd) Broad Jump: 128 inches (93rd) 3-Cone Drill: N/A 20-Yard Shuttle: N/A Bio: Clemson was the last of 34 schools to offer Etienne out of Louisiana, and Clemson was the school that got him. That may have been the last deliberate football-related decision Etienne made. He put up 823 yards from scrimmage as a true freshman in 2017, maxed out with 2,046 yards from scrimmage in 2019, and came back for 2020 with 1,502 yards from scrimmage. In his career for the Tigers, Etienne ran 686 times for 4952 yards and 70 touchdowns, adding 102 catches for 1,155 yards and eight touchdowns. His career 7.2 yards per carry average ranks first all-time in ACC history, and 11th all-time in NCAA history -- just behind Reggie Bush's 7.3. Stat to Know: In 2020, Etienne's 576 yards after contact ranked 12th in the NCAA, and represented 63% of his 914 rushing yards in total. Also, no back in the 2021 class had more receiving targets (58), receptions (48), or receiving yards (588). Strengths: Home-run hitter who is a threat to house it at any time -- Etienne had 85 carries of 15 or more yards on 684 career attempts. Has scary speed when he's bouncing outside and right up the middle; there are more than enough examples of him embarrassing defenders doing this. Clearly a tougher runner against contact in the 2020 season -- though that will never be his primary attribute, improvement in this area will improve his prospects. Kept that together even after Clemson's offensive line experienced massive turnover following the 2019 season. Can back out of brick walls up the middle very quickly and make gains outside the tackles. As a screen receiver, follows his blockers patiently, and can turn on the jets in a split second. Had just 12 snaps from the slot and 12 lined up wide last season, but can add this to his repertoire in the NFL. Weaknesses: Though Etienne has improved his power and contact balance throughout his career, he's never going to be a power back. Not that this was ever his ideal prototype. Is just as likely to get stopped up at or near the line of scrimmage as he is to break a big play. Created 51 first downs as a runner in 2020, but he's not a guy who's going to give you three yards and a cloud of whatever. Had 20 or more carries in a game just three times in his collegiate career, though of his 20 100-yard games, five came with 10 or fewer carries. That's pretty much who he is. More straight-line speedy than elusive in a side-to-side sense. Conclusion: The team that selects Travis Etienne will have to understand exactly what he is -- and what he isn't. Though he does present more power at times than you may think for his size, he's not a sustaining, grind-it-out runner. The upside is that players with Etienne's explosive potential don't exactly grow on trees. If he's in an NFL offense where backs are used creatively in a multi-purpose sense, he has the potential to be a foundation back with as many receptions as carries; think of a super-charged Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey. NFL Comparison: Jamaal Charles. When Charles was healthy with the Chiefs, he was the league's biggest threat to take any play for a long touchdown, and Etienne reminds me very much of Charles in his receiver-ish build, scary straight-line speed, and slightly upright running style. Charles' 2013 season, with 329 touches for 1,980 yards and a league-high 19 touchdowns, would be Etienne's ultimate potential in the right offense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb4M5tShow0&ab_channel=FlashHighlights
4. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
(Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'10" (37th) Weight: 214 (51st) 40-Yard Dash: 4.51 (58th) Bench Press: 22 reps (75th) Vertical Jump: 36" (68th) Broad Jump: 122" (72nd) 3-Cone Drill: 7.13 seconds (34th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.35 seconds (34th) Bio: A four-star recruit out of Mississippi’s Columbus High School, Hill chose the home state route, turning down offers from Missouri, Nebraska, Ole Miss, and several other schools. Regarding his college production, we're dealing with one major season here -- his 2019 campaign, when he gained 1,350 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns on 242 carries, with 18 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown. His career stats: 452 carries for 2,535 yards and 16 touchdowns, with 67 catches for 631 yards and six touchdowns. So, we're doing a bit of projection here, but the tape in both 2019 and 2020 makes it pretty easy to do so in a positive sense. Stat to Know: In just three 2020 games, Hill had 23 receptions for 234 yards, with just one drop and eight broken tackles. Strengths: Hill had 116 broken tackles on 452 career carries, and it's easy to see why; he never goes down without several fights, and his tape against Alabama in 2019 specifically shows outstanding power and determination against a dominant defense. Pinballing, slashing runner who's particularly good on draws and delays because he follows his blocks, and can bounce from gap to gap when things aren't happening up front. Runs low to the ground with great leg drive and will reach out for additional yards. Outstanding competitive personality on the field. Has a good enough extra gear into the second and third levels of the defense, but at and around the line of scrimmage is where most of his highlights happen. Expanded his palette as a receiver in 2020 with 14 snaps in the slot after 12 total in the three previous years. Weaknesses: Hill's blocking ability mirrors his tough on-field personality, though he could use a few awareness pointers -- this would lead to more direct hits and fewer whiffs. At times, he'll start freelancing, bouncing outside instead of following the plan, and that doesn't always go well. While he plays with consistent efficient power, he's not the kind of bigger back you can build that kind of offense around. Reportedly opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season after an "outburst" and subsequent suspension following a 24-2 loss to Kentucky in which Hill gained 79 yards on 15 carries. Conclusion: Hill saw his name get lost in the shuffle a bit because of his reduced 2020 season, but when you go back and watch what he did in a 2019 season in which he amassed 1,560 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns on 260 touches against strong competition, it becomes clear that he's NFL-ready if he's used correctly. NFL Comparison: Garrison Hearst. This is a bit of a throwback, but it's tough to find 5-foot-10 backs in the 215-pound range who run with Hill's power and contact balance, and I'm not going to compare him to LaDainian Tomlinson. Like Hearst, who gained 7.966 yards on the ground and added 2,065 more yards in the air over his career from 1993 through 2004, Hill has a nice combination of agility, speed, strength, and wiggle, with untapped potential in the passing game. He's not a foundation back per se, but if your team is looking for a thunder back to complement someone else's lightning, you might want to start right here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IkuJsesGXs&t=9s&ab_channel=JustBombsProductions
5. Michael Carter, North Carolina
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'9 1/2″ (12th) Weight:184 (17th) 40-Yard Dash:4.36 seconds (92nd) Bench Press:13 reps (41st) Vertical Jump:35.5 inches (43rd) Broad Jump: N/A 3-Cone Drill:6.90 seconds (59th) 20-Yard Shuttle:4.57 seconds (2nd) Bio: Speaking of thunder and lightning backfields... Carter was the lightning to Javonte Williams' thunder (or monsoon, or whatever weather-related Act of God you care to mention) in North Carolina's preposterously talented backfield. During his senior season at Navarre High School in Florida, Carter gained 3,345 all-purpose yards and scored 45 touchdowns. He turned down offers from Florida, Louisville, Mississippi State and Tennessee, among other schools, choosing North Carolina instead. Carter gained 659 yards from scrimmage and scored nine total touchdowns as a true freshman, and in his college career, he gained 3,404 yards and scored 22 touchdowns on 514 carries, adding 82 receptions for 656 yards and six touchdowns. Carter also had 29 kick returns for 650 yards. Stat to Know: Carter led all backs in the 2021 class with 29 carries of 15 or more yards, and gained 780 of his 1,245 rushing yards on those plays. Strengths: We're going to talk about Carter's limitations as a feature back soon. He's not a volume sustainer in the traditional sense. But once he's in the open field, watch out. Carter brings a ton of attributes as an open-field runner -- he's elusive in short spaces, he has an evil ability to stop and get back up to optimal speed, he can spin his way right out of trouble, and his second- and third-level burst is exceptional. It's not that he has no power; Carter can break tackles at or around the line of scrimmage at times. But that's not what he does best. Maintains balance through contact to a degree; likely a hidden advantage of his alleged height deficit. Versatile receiver who lined up in the slot a few times, and can do it more often at the next level. Presents the ability to run a multiple route tree, and has the speed, cut ability, and acceleration to become a guy who could also line up outside and make things happen. Plus blocker, especially for his size, with an aggressive mentality. Weaknesses: Unlike Javonte Williams, his backfield mate, Carter doesn't present a lot of power after contact -- he did force 47 missed tackles on 157 attempts last season, and he plays with more toughness than you'd expect at his size, but he's not a bruiser. When he gets contacted, he tends to go down more often than you'd like from a volume back. Conclusion: With players like Carter, we're getting back into our opening discussion about how running backs can matter. The Chiefs selected LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the last pick in the first round of the 2020 draft because they saw in him the perfect complementary piece in an explosive passing offense with option and RPO elements. It didn't matter that CEH stood 5-foot-7 and weighed 207 pounds. Edwards-Helaire reminded Andy Reid of Brian Westbrook, one of his favorite players when Reid was the Eagles' head coach, and while Edwards-Helaire's NFL transition is still a work in progress, the players are similar in their abilities to create yardage in open space and do multiple things required of the position in certain offenses. Carter has the same potential if he's used as an adjunct explosive factor. NFL Comparison: Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH wasn't part of a committee his last season at LSU -- that's how he gained 1,867 yards from scrimmage and scored 17 total touchdowns in 2019. Had Carter been the main man in that type of offense, his consistently explosive traits might have had him going down a similar path. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZFBexC76Qs&t=92s&ab_channel=kielpro88
6. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis
(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'11" (55th) Weight: 195 (ninth) 40-Yard Dash: 4.42 seconds (86th) Bench Press: 21 reps (66th) Vertical Jump: 35 inches (53rd) Broad Jump: 121 inches (65th) 3-Cone Drill: 7.26 seconds (18th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.46 seconds (14th) Bio: Primarily a quarterback at Yazoo County High School in Mississippi, Gainwell accounted for 8,412 total yards, 108 touchdowns, and 9.4 yards per carry. He turned down offers from Ole Miss and Mississippi State, choosing instead to attend Memphis -- a school that recruited him as a receiver. He made the switch to running back pretty quickly, but never lost his receiving chops. Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season, but gained well (sorry) in 2019, with 1,459 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 231 carries, adding 51 receptions for 610 yards and three touchdowns. Stat to Know: In 2019, Gainwell led all NCAA backs with 10 catches on 10 targets split wide of the formation for 192 yards, 105 yards after the catch, and a touchdown. Strengths: The Stat to Know is where we should start, because outside of UCLA's Demetric Felton, there isn't a back in this class who presents more as a receiver from multiple points in the formation. Gainwell had just three drops on 60 catchable targets in his college career, and he lined up in the slot 87 times and out wide 13 times in his collegiate career. Can run everything from release routes to fades (!) from the backfield, and shows a full route tree from the slot and outside. As a running back, Gainwell isn't going to bowl people over at his size, but he's got decent power. Solid one-cut runner who gets interesting in open space with elusiveness -- he forced 56 broken tackles and had 24 carries of 15 yards or more in 2019. Not a bad blocker for his size; he'll at least give effort. Weaknesses: While Gainwell has some push and contact balance, he's not going to break tackles at the line of scrimmage with defenders converging on him. More of an outside bouncer than an inside bruiser. Conclusion: It's a good time to come into the NFL as a shorter, smaller running back who has already shown the ability to win in the passing game in multiple ways. Alvin Kamara led all running backs in 2020 with 83 receptions at 5-foot-10 and 215 pounds. J.D. McKissic of the Washington Football Team caught 80 balls at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds. Indianapolis' Nyheim Hines caught 63 passes last season at 5-foot-9 and 196 pounds. Austin Ekeler of the Chargers caught 54 passes at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds. And on and on. Gainwell is clearly a complementary back in a running sense, but what will keep him on the field in an every-down sense is his ability to expand every passing game in lining up in the backfield or anywhere in the formation, and motioning from one place to another. And again, this isn't just a guy making hay with screens and swing passes -- this is a full route-tree receiver with a running back's number. Not every NFL team will value that, but the ones who do will be all over Gainwell as an immediate weapon. NFL Comparison: Austin Ekeler. The Chargers got Ekeler as an undrafted free agent out of Western State in 2017, and over the next four seasons, Ekeler ran the ball 401 times for 1,901 yards and nine touchdowns... and caught 212 passes for 2,079 yards and 16 touchdowns. There were a few other NFL backs who lined up in the slot and out wide more often more than Ekeler did in 2020, but Ekeler's play style comes up the most in my mind when I watch Gainwell do his thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ6VHKR-pBk&t=69s&ab_channel=kielpro88
7. Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma
(Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6'0" (85th) Weight: 230 (89th) 40-Yard Dash: 4.63 seconds (17th) Bench Press: 15 reps (18th) Vertical Jump: 31.5 inches (13th) Broad Jump: 112 inches (11th) 3-Cone Drill: 7.02 seconds (55th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.47 seconds (12th) Bio: The Nevada high-school star started his collegiate journey at the JUCO level, with two seasons at Cerritos Community College in California. Once he was ready to transfer, he chose Oklahoma over BYU, Kansas State and Hawaii, and got to producing on the field against tougher competition. In two seasons with the Sooners, Stevenson gained 1,180 yards and scored 13 touchdowns on 165 carries, with 28 catches for 298 yards. Stat to Know: Stevenson forced 36 missed tackles and had 12 carries of 15 or more yards in 2020... on just 101 rushing attempts. Strengths: From 0-10 yards, Stevenson is a bigger back who reacts and moves like a smaller back -- in a good way. Has excellent short-area agility for his size, and can bounce from gap to gap in a relative hurry. Ran through a lot of open gaps behind Oklahoma's outstanding mixed-blocking line, but also shows a nice ability to explode through those lanes, making things quite unpleasant for second-level defenders. Smooth route-running receiver on everything from simple screens to leak routes to the outside. His receiving ability is something his NFL team could capitalize on and expand. Weaknesses: Stevenson certainly has the ability to break tackles and make gains after contact, and maybe I'm spoiled because I watched Javonte Williams before I watched Stevenson, but I'd like to see Stevenson invite contact more than he does. He's more able to slough defenders off as he gains a head of steam, but there are other times I see him going down, and it's a bit surprising Conclusion: NFL teams that value Stevenson as a pure power back who can blast through tackles and do all the things traditional power backs do might be in for a shock when he hits the field at the next level. While he shows some power elements, I think of him more as a hybrid player who can run inside and outside, will disappoint at times with his leverage, will surprise with his speed and elusiveness, and can be more than a one-trick pony in the passing game. Here's where we have to separate a player's size from the skill set we would automatically assume. And if his NFL team has an offensive line incapable of presenting openings... well, we may have a fundamental issue. NFL Comparison: Stephen Davis. I've seen comparisons to LeGarrette Blount here, but Stevenson has more potential as a receiver, with less explosive power and more wiggle as a running back. With the Redskins, Panthers, and Rams from 1996 through 2006, Davis was a sustaining back who bulled his way to over 8,000 career rushing yards, and had the versatility to add nearly 1,500 receiving yards. There are elements of Fred Taylor to Stevenson's game as a big back who runs like a small back at times (in a good way), but Taylor was more of a downfield threat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4QpgjjsQy4&ab_channel=FootballTrends
8. Trey Sermon, Ohio State
(Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 6'0" (85th) Weight: 215 (55th) 40-Yard Dash: 4.57 (38th) Bench Press: N/A Vertical Jump: 37 inches (77th) Broad Jump: 125 inches (87th) 3-Cone Drill: 6.83 seconds (87th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28 seconds (50th) Bio: Sermon was highly coveted as a star out of Georgia’s Sprayberry High School, turning down Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia to go with Oklahoma. After three seasons with the Sooners, he transferred to Ohio State in a search for more playing time. Sermon finally got that workhorse load late in the Buckeyes' season, with a 29-carry, 331-yard game against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game, and a 31-carry, 193-yard game against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. Over four collegiate seasons, Sermon gained 2,946 yards and scored 26 touchdowns on 455 carries, with 48 catches for 486 yards and three touchdowns. Stat to Know: Sermon's broken tackle rate last season (30.2%) ranked eighth in the NCAA. Strengths: Especially for a back his size, Sermon has an outstanding sense for open gaps, and the short-area acceleration to get there and take advantage. Has decent lateral wiggle to move through traffic as it's converging. Open-field assault weapon who will embarrass second- and third-level defenders head to head, and those same linebackers and safeties find it very difficult to grab and hold on with any consistency. Has 16 carries of 15 or more yards in 2020, most of it after telling multiple tacklers to get off his lawn. Weaknesses: Sermon is six feet tall and uses his entire height even in power runs. He forced 33 missed tackles on 116 rushing attempts last season, but if he were to lower his leverage points, he'd be even more effective as a downhill havoc device. Doesn't have a next-level acceleration in the open field; he won't really run away from anybody. Limited reps and a limited route tree as a receiver. Conclusion: If Sermon had come out in the 1991 draft instead of the 2021 draft, he'd be coveted by every NFL team as a power back who could be taught to run lower, and it wouldn't really matter whether he could add to a passing game. That's where the league was then. Where the league is now might relegate Sermon to the middle rounds as a rotational back in a power-based offense. While he isn't a one-trick pony, he's also not a foundational back at this point in time, and I'm not sure whether he can add the attributes that would provide more contact balance. Since his deep speed is also limited, Sermon finds himself in a bit of a schematic box. That's not to say that he can't produce consistently, but it does mean that his palette of teams is what it is. NFL Comparison: Leonard Fournette. Fournette was about 15 pounds heavier than Sermon coming out of LSU, but their profiles are similar as power backs who can make defenses miserable when the blocking is good, struggle to create behind less clear pictures, and may or may not ever add much in the passing game (Fournette has at times in the NFL). Sadly for Sermon, we're mostly past the point where power backs will be selected fourth overall, as Fournette was by the Jaguars in the 2017 draft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVW9ItJE1BM&ab_channel=BradleyKelley
9. Demetric Felton, UCLA
(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: Weight: 40-Yard Dash: Bench Press: Vertical Jump: Broad Jump: 3-Cone Drill: 20-Yard Shuttle: Bio: The Temecula, California high-school star turned down offers from Michigan and Arizona State to stay closer to home with the Bruins. Felton started his collegiate career as a receiver, grabbing 22 catches in his first two seasons with just 15 carries. That ratio ticked up in 2019, when Felton carried the ball 86 times for 336 yards and a touchdown, as opposed to 55 receptions for 594 yards and four touchdowns. The conversion to running back was complete in 2020, as Felton gained 668 yards and scored five touchdowns on 132 carries, with 22 catches for 159 yards and three touchdowns. As such, he's a fascinating hybrid player for modern NFL offenses. Stat to Know: Felton's career receiving numbers reflect his positional versatility -- 99 catches on 140 targets for 958 yards and eight touchdowns. Strengths: Even after he made the switch to running back, Felton continued to line up in the slot and out wide at times -- 12 slot snaps and 14 wide snaps in 2020. Whether he's in the slot in the backfield, Felton is a constant threat to gain yards after catch or contact with his smooth acceleration, shiftiness, and straight-line speed. He can be particularly devastating on screen passes because he has the patience to follow his blockers, and knows when to turn on the jets. Can stop and start on a dime, and it doesn't take much for him to get back up to optimal speed. Will tend to run away from defenders as opposed to initiating contact, but his ability to do so consistently is impressive. Weaknesses: While that smooth acceleration is a trademark, Felton doesn't have a third gear that will allow him to elude defenders in a straight line. And though he forced 33 missed tackles last season, most of them were in the open field. This is not the back you want if you're interested in a line of scrimmage tackle-breaker. His tendency to break outside the line to avoid contact is an effective strategy, but any team wanting a power back isn't going to like it. Conclusion: When you get into the later rounds at the running back position, it's more important than ever to focus on what a prospect can do as opposed to what he can't. Felton is a player who shows a lot of potential as a slasher in the open field, and he's the most developed receiver among these backs (for obvious reasons). If that's your cup of tea, this is the ideal in this class. If you're looking for anything else... well, this is why Felton will be a rotational and scheme-specific back at the next level. NFL Comparison: James White. The Patriots' secret weapon over the last seven seasons, White has always found a place in Bill Belichick's offenses because he stands out as a situational runner and a highly aware receiver. Felton presents a similar skill set, and could have a similar impact in the right NFL offense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fSqKuwKfrU&ab_channel=SeanBialaszek
10. Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech
(Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: 5'9" (16th) Weight: 210 (41st) 40-Yard Dash: 4.46 seconds (77th) Bench Press: 22 reps (75th) Vertical Jump: 33 inches (28th) Broad Jump: 115 inches (25th) 3-Cone Drill: 6.96 seconds (66th) 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.31 seconds (42nd) Bio: A three-star recruit out of American Heritage School in Plantation, Florida, Herbert was named to the Miami Herald’s Top-50 Players of Broward County list and started his collegiate career at Kansas, where he gained 1.735 yards and scored 14 touchdowns on 320 carries, adding 34 catches for 297 yards and a touchdown. Herbert's decision to leave Kansas for Virginia Tech was a shock, though he posted a letter on social media to explain his departure. Whatever the reasons, Herbert had his best collegiate season for the Hokies in 2020, with 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns on 155 carries, and 10 catches for 179 yards and a touchdown. Stat to Know: Only North Carolina's Michael Carter and Javonte Williams had more carries of 15 or more yards last season than Herbert's 19 for 648 yards. Strengths: Herbert plays bigger than his frame would suggest in several ways. He's a surprisingly good power back with his low center of gravity, churning legs, and aggressive play demeanor. He forced 42 missed tackles on 155 attempts last season. Herbert uses his leg drive and choppy steps to work through traffic very well, and when he finds open space, he's generally a threat to create past linebackers and safeties. He's happy to block, though awareness issues get in the way at times. Weaknesses: While he is an excellent tackle-breaker, Herbert's size comes into play in a negative sense as a run-after-run power back. When he takes a body shot, no matter how hard he tries to get past it, it's 50-50 whether he'll go down. Hasn't shown much multiplicity as a receiver. Conclusion: As long as the off-field issues check out, Herbert could be a steal in this draft as a shifty, nasty, power/speed back with some potential in the passing game, and the willingness to block. NFL Comparison: Thomas Jones. While Jones presented more value as a receiver in his NFL career with five different teams from 2000-2011, Herbert reminds me of Jones as a runner with his aggressive, caterwauling style. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN8lzCmrqCE&t=193s&ab_channel=ACCDigitalNetwork
11. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
(Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
Height: Weight: 40-Yard Dash: Bench Press: Vertical Jump: Broad Jump: 3-Cone Drill: 20-Yard Shuttle: Bio: Born in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Hubbard played high-school football under Canadian rules at Bev Facey Community High. A football star and sprinting champion, Hubbard Chose Oklahoma State over... well, just about every other school, including (deep breath) Alabama, Auburn, California, Colorado, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Oregon. In three seasons with the Cowboys, Hubbard gained 3,459 yards and scored 33 touchdowns on 585 carries, adding 53 receptions for 479 yards and three touchdowns. Stat to Know: Hubbard led the NCAA with 328 carries in 2019, and that workload may have been too much. His yards per attempt dropped from 6.4 in 2019 to 4.7 in 2020, and he struggled with ankle injuries last season. Strengths: Natural one-cut zone runner who works patiently behind his blocks and is decisive when it's time to exploit the opening gap.Hubbard seems to genuinely enjoy pass protection, and once in a while, you'll see him just lay an unsuspecting defender out. When he needs to bounce outside, he can do that with impressive efficiency. Weaknesses: While Hubbard runs hard, he goes down on contact far too easily for a back his size -- he forced just 22 missed tackles on 133 attempts last season. You especially want to see more power from a back who, in Oklahoma's offense, faced a heavy box on just 5% of his runs. And for a former sprinter, you'd want to see more than the nine carries of 15 or more yards he had last season. He also fumbled the ball seven times over the last two seasons. Conclusion: Hubbard made this list because of his decisiveness as a zone runner, and the occasional ability to use straight-line speed to make defenders unhappy. It's possible that the workload issues of 2020 were a one-year problem, and if that's the case, some NFL team could get a bargain. NFL Comparison: Darren McFadden. When McFadden came out of Arkansas for the 2008 draft, the Raiders selected him fourth overall because it was believed that McFadden could turn his straight-line speed into an illustrations NFL career. While he had a couple of good seasons, McFadden's lack of a complete rushing repertoire -- especially in the power department -- limited his options. One suspects that the NFL will see Hubbard with a more realistic eye. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp3vCXudM2E&ab_channel=ZingHighlights
1
1
