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Top 10 Super Bowl props: Will Travis Kelce have more TDs than Cristiano Ronaldo has goals?

Frank Schwab
·7 min read
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The Super Bowl is the only game of the year in which the point spread seems like an afterthought.

Bettors will take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3.5-point underdog or side with the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorite. There will be many over/under bets on the total of 56.5.

But Super Bowl betting is unlike any other because of props.

There are literally hundreds of prop bets offered at BetMGM, from the straightforward like how many passing yards for Patrick Mahomes to the ridiculous, such as the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach.

With this many props on the board, it’s hard to know where to start. Let’s look at 10 of the most popular props at BetMGM, with a pick for each:

Who will score the first touchdown?

This is, to nobody’s surprise, the most-bet prop of Super Bowl LV. It’s a fun bet with some enticing odds that is usually settled early in the game. The favorites are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at +600, and that’s no surprise either. Both of those Chiefs stars had huge regular seasons.

Quarterbacks are often popular, even though they rarely score the first touchdown. But last year Patrick Mahomes did it, costing BetMGM in the low six figures because so many bets came in on him. Mahomes is +2200 to score first Sunday. So far, the top three in terms of ticket count for the first TD are Kelce, Mike Evans and Hill.

Even better, in all BetMGM states other than Pennsylvania, users can log into the BetMGM app, opt into the risk-free first touchdown bet on the promotions page and get a risk-free $20 bet on that prop. If bettors don’t win the player to score first prop, they’ll get a $20 free bet in their account.

Surprisingly, who will score the last touchdown of the Super Bowl is the 13th most popular prop at BetMGM.

Pick: Mike Evans +1100

Mike Evans scored the first touchdown of the NFC championship game, can he do it again in the Super Bowl? (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Mike Evans scored the first touchdown of the NFC championship game, can he do it again in the Super Bowl? (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Will Rob Gronkowski have a big game in a Bucs win?

Gronkowski is still a big name and had a solid season after a year off in retirement. The last time we saw Gronkowski in a Super Bowl, he made the biggest play in the Patriots’ win over the Rams.

BetMGM offers props that combine a player’s performance with the game’s result, and Gronkowski is popular in that market. Bettors can take Gronkowski to record 40 yards and the Buccaneers to win at +500. It makes sense why those odds appeal to bettors.

If you really want to get crazy, Gronkowski is 200-to-1 to throw the game’s first touchdown pass.

Pick: Tyreek Hill to record 100+ yards receiving and Chiefs win at +210

Travis Kelce TDs vs. Cristiano Ronaldo goals

One of the more popular markets is cross-game matchbets. You can bet whether Patrick Mahomes will have more passing attempts or Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James will have more combined points, rebounds and assists against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night.

Where else can you bet on Kelce, the Chiefs star tight end, against the world-famous soccer star Ronaldo? Kelce’s number of Super Bowl touchdowns is -150 vs. Ronaldo’s goals on Saturday for Juventus F.C. against Roma. That’s a bet you don’t get to place every day.

Picks: Mahomes over James, Kelce over Ronaldo, Alex Ovechkin points (+200) over Tom Brady touchdowns

Will the Chiefs trail by two scores and also win by two scores?

Mahomes has had some big comebacks already in his playoff career, and BetMGM made a prop around that.

BetMGM is offering the following prop: Will the Chiefs trail by 9-plus points at some point in the game, but win by 9-plus points? Yes is +600 odds. MGM pointed out that Mahomes has come back from 9 or more points down to win by 9 or more points four times already in his playoff career, and no other quarterback in NFL history has more than one such postseason win. This is among BetMGM’s 20 most bet-on props.

Pick: Pass

What will the first scoring play be?

The three most popular props at BetMGM for the Super Bowl are first player to score a touchdown, Super Bowl MVP, and the first scoring play.

The reason the prop is popular is probably due to nice odds on a field goal or safety:

Chiefs TD +130
Buccaneers TD +180
Bucs field goal +500
Chiefs field goal +550
Bucs safety +5000
Chiefs safety +5000

Pick: Chiefs field goal +550

Can Tom Brady rush for just 1 yard?

There will be a lot of bettors hoping on every play that 43-year-old Brady takes off and runs, just once for 1 yard. The over/under on Brady rushing yards is 0.5. The over is +145. That means a $100 bet gets a $145 profit if Brady gets just a single yard. It will be an odd sweat. And this type of prop also led to the worst beat of last year’s Super Bowl.

Pick: Brady over 0.5 rushing yards

Will there be a TD of less than 1.5 yards?

One of the staples of Super Bowl props is the over/under for the shortest touchdown. It’s always 1.5 yards. The Score said that in 21 of the past 31 Super Bowls, there has been a 1-yard touchdown. There were three in last year’s Super Bowl. Under 1.5 is at -165 odds, but that still seems like fair value.

Pick: Under 1.5 for shortest TD -165

Will Chiefs or Buccaneers record more rushing yards?

The Chiefs rushed for more yards than the Buccaneers in the regular season, but it doesn’t make sense to try to run on the Bucs. The past two seasons Tampa Bay has had a great run defense. The Bucs allowed 1,289 rushing yards this season, which was the fewest in the NFL by far. The Chiefs allowed 1,954. If you had Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, why would you even try to rush against that Bucs front? It makes sense to take any overs on props for the Chiefs passing game, and unders for their running game. Mahomes is going to throw it a lot.

Pick: Buccaneers -115

Will Harrison Butker have more than 3.5 extra points?

One prop that has gotten an odd majority of bets is the over on Butker’s extra points. That line is 3.5, and 95% of the bets have come in on the over according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing.

It’s understandable why many people are taking the over. The Chiefs score a lot, and extra points usually follow touchdowns. However, Butker did miss six extra points in the regular season and one more in the playoffs. And the Chiefs could always score and go for 2 depending on the game situation, which would frustrate Butker bettors. And there are many of them.

Pick: Butker over 3.5 extra points

Ok, how about the coin toss and Gatorade bath color?

It’s the Super Bowl. Even if you’re a serious bettor, it’s OK to lay a couple bets on some novelty props like the outcome of the coin toss and the color of the Gatorade bath for the winning coach.

Picks: Tails (-105) and clear for the bath (+650)

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