TNF Preview: NFC West battle between Los Angeles & Seattle

Minty Bets is your guide to success when betting the Thursday Night clash featuring the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Will the Rams cover the points on the road? What about Russell Wilson's competed pass total or Matthew Stafford's yards total? Minty has you covered. New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. . Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit.

Video Transcript

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MINTY BETS: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It's October 7, and I am Minty Bets, your betting guide heading into a massive NFC West battle.

The Thursday night game will be on the Yahoo Sports app at 8:20 PM, Eastern Standard Time. The Rams head to Seattle, and LA is a 2 and 1/2 point favored with a total set at 54 and 1/2. First. Of all, I love the NFC West it's my favorite division to bet on and the division I probably pay the most attention to because it's such a good and competitive division.

So I'm really excited for this game. The Rams are coming off a loss to the Cardinals, and the Seahawks are coming off a win against the Niners. Normally, I would take Seattle as underdogs all day, but they're 2 and 1/2 point underdogs, and that kind of worries me because Seattle's offense looked off.

They barely were able to convert third downs. Only averaged about 4.3 yards per play, and Russ only threw for 149 yards. I actually expect the Rams to tighten that defense and bounce back. They allowed 37 points from Arizona, and Matt Stafford only completed 63.4% of his passes. This is definitely not happening again. At least, not tonight.

I expect the Rams to win and cover but I think this line will get bet up as we've seen them open as favorites, and now 2 and 1/2 point favorites. I would not bet the Rams if this line gets any higher. If we're seeing them favored by 3 points or more, I'm going the other way and betting on the Seahawks for sure.

Both the Seahawks and Rams are top 10 in scoring and rank first and second in offensive DVOA this season. Seattle's defense is allowing the most total yards from their opponents but their offense never has an issue scoring. Betting the over seems tempting and makes the most sense. But I'm going to look to the under.

And I know unders are no fun and their tragic game to watch. But I actually said it earlier. That Rams defense is going to tighten things up. Aaron Donald is going to put pressure on Russell Wilson, and Wilson has been sacked 11 times already this season. That Seattle o-line needs help and their secondary is bottom third in defensive pass success rate.

So due to LA having the much better defense, this is why I like the under. Now, this is a tricky game to call overall. So let's get into some player props. We're going to begin with Matthew Stafford's passing yards. It's set at 2.99 and a half. So essentially, is Stafford going to throw for 300 or more yards? I'm going to say yes and go with the over.

He's 2 for 4 so far this season, going over 300 passing yards. But this week, he's going up against Seattle's defense, which has a ton of holes in it. And Stafford has tons of weapons at his disposal. Onto another quarterback, who other left than Russell Wilson. His total for pass completions is set at 24 and a half.

And oh, man. OK. He has gone under 25 pass completions in all games so far this season. And on top of that, he has had less than 25 completed passes in all of his games against the Rams, dating back to 2016. I mean, come on are the Bucs sleeping on this or do they know something that we don't?

I think that's a little set pretty high considering this history and this trend, but I think it's also set high because they expect it to be a high scoring game. So I get it. But I am going under here. Lastly, let's talk about DK Metcalf. Love the guy. He's recorded a touchdown in 3 of 4 games, and had 6 receptions in 2 of 4 games.

His receptions made total is set at 5 and a half, and I think that's a little high. The under is that plus 105 and I kind of like the value there. I'm seeing regression from the Seahawks offense and I think DK will get about five catches or less.

So just to recap, Rams minus 2 and 1/2 under 54 and 1/2, Matt Stafford over 299 and 1/2 passing yards, Russell Wilson under 24 and 1/2 past completions, and DK Metcalf under 5 and 1/2 receptions. You can follow me on Twitter @mintybets, and make sure to follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook.

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