Thursday NBA bets: Embiid & Harden vs. Durant, Steph Curry vs. Jokic
Ariel Epstein gives you her best bets from the two NBA games tonight, a long-awaited matchup between the 76ers and Nets after their blockbuster trade and a matchup of western heavyweights between the Warriors and Nuggets.
Video Transcript
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ARIEL EPSTEIN: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is Thursday, March 10, 2022. I'm your betting guide, Ariel Epstein, here to preview tonight's slate of NBA action.
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When I go to record this podcast, I usually think to myself, oh my goodness, I can't believe we're going to be looking at these games so far in advance. It's the night before that we are recording these, so no lines are out. Then I look to the slate for tonight, Thursday. I said, oh my gosh, two games. This is so great.
The first game, it's the Brooklyn Nets at the Philadelphia 76ers. This is the one everyone's been looking forward to because it was the big deal that happened at the trade deadline where James Harden went to Philly. Ben Simmons, Seth Curry went to Brooklyn. It was the saga of Ben Simmons versus James Harden and everyone wanting to get out of wherever they were.
Doesn't look like Ben Simmons is going to play, however, he should be sitting on the bench for Brooklyn. James Harden, he's been well in action for the Philadelphia 76ers. Before I dive into props, I'm looking at the over in this game. The Sixers have scored 120 or more points in every game that James Harden has played since coming over to Philly.
Brooklyn plays terrible defense. They have been bottom 10 all season in points allowed. With so many stars trying to prove something, I see this being like another All-Star game at the over. Overs are great for props, especially when players have something to prove. Even though everyone's going to be looking to James Harden, I'm still looking at the Sixers center, Joel Embiid. I'm betting he's over on points.
He's been averaging just under 31 points per game since Harden started playing for Philly. The Nets defense allows the ninth most points per game at 112. In the last 10 games, that number has gone up to just over 116 points per game allowed. Even with Kevin Durant, this team can't play defense.
Then you look to Tyrese Maxey, he's also been extremely good for the Sixers since James Harden came over. I would take Maxie's over, 16.5 points. I wouldn't bet it any higher than that. The point guard has been averaging 23.5 points per game since the All-Star break. Ever since James Harden came over, it's helped Maxey out. He hasn't really had to dish the ball out as much because that's really James Harden's job. Maxey's just focusing on scoring some points. He's got it next to Joel Embiid. The two of them have been awesome for betting overs on points. Perhaps, go do that.
Now for the Harden props, I know everyone wants one. I'd either go to his rebounds plus assist, which he's averaging about 20 combined since going over to Philly. Or you could bet Harden over 2.5 3s. I also like Seth Curry over 2.5 3s. Just don't lay any more than even money. Keep it at minus 110, nothing more. No more evilly juice number than that. If you get it in plus money, that's even better.
Harden's had three 3's in just two of his last five games in Philly in his career. In the last three games with Durant, the Nets have allowed for seven players to have three or more 3-pointers, so the Nets defense is allowing for a couple of players a game to have three or more 3-pointers. That could bode well for a player like James Harden, who is just out to prove something. And Seth Curry also, I mean, he's going up against his former team in Philly, he knows that court well, he's had some really hot nights there in Philly. So keep a close eye for him. It technically feels like his home court, even though he's on Brooklyn now.
Diving into the late game, the Golden State Warriors are at the Denver Nuggets Denver has won nine of their last 10. Golden State, they've just won three of their last 10. I'm looking at the first half over. The Warriors first half overs are averaging around 120. The Nuggets are the second best first half over team. Go look to that first half over for the combined points of Golden State and Denver.
Over to the props, I'm only looking at the Golden State side. First, I like the Warriors point guard Steph Curry over in his points prop. Guards are averaging just under 24 points per game against Denver since the All-Star break. I'm also looking to the Warriors center, Kevon Looney's rebounds. Centers are averaging just over 12 rebounds per game against Denver since the All-Star break. Looney, there's been this joke going around on Twitter that he is fully been immersed into the Splash Brothers. I like for Looney to have a bunch of rebounds tonight. So take his over, especially at like 9.5.
Here's a recap of my picks for tonight here on a Thursday. First, I'm betting the over in the Nets-Sixers game. I'm betting over on Joel Embiid points, over on Tyrese Maxey points as long as it's not any higher than 16.5. You can look to Seth Curry or James Harden over 2.5 made 3-pointers as long as you're not laying any more than minus 110. Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets, first half over. Steph Curry over on points. Kevon Looney, over on rebounds.
You can follow me on Twitter over @AarielEpstein and follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook. Bet $10 on any game at BetMGM and get $200 in free bets added to your account. You don't need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Go to BetMGM.com/YahooVIP to get started. New BetMGM customers only. Must be 21 or over. You have to be in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming only. Terms apply, please gamble responsibly. Frank Schwab will be back tomorrow on "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily" with a preview of the weekend's college ball games. Until then, good bye and good luck.
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- I got a Mike parle going tonight.
- Huh?
- I've bet on every team with a player named Mike.
- That's dumb.
- It's Mike night.
- Bet however you want. Yahoo Sportsbook is your ticket to bet MGM.
