Three reasons why the Bucks will win the 2023-24 NBA title...and three why they won't

The Milwaukee Bucks will begin their 2024 playoff run this weekend when they face Indiana in the first round, and they begin this postseason as one of the favorites to win an NBA championship.

Here are three reasons why they will win the title…and three why they will not.

Why the Bucks will win the championship

Damian Lillard has a great playoff

We know what Giannis Antetokounmpo can do in a championship run. Same with Khris Middleton. And Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. So if that means if wondering how Damian Lillard will perform (provided he is as close to 100% as he can be) over a two-month period is somewhat of an unknown, there are worse questions to have to answer. His lengthy history can inform part of that, as Lillard has made 36.9% of his three-pointers and averaged 25.7 points and 6.2 assists in 61 career playoff games.

And he, quite famously, sent Oklahoma City packing at the buzzer in Game 5 of the 2019 first round – which helped propel the Trail Blazers to the only conference finals trip of his career.

But that is the past and his role was different in Portland. This year, Lillard has been very open about his struggles in adjusting on the court to the Bucks, and injuries and personal absences have contributed to just six full games played with Antetokounmpo and Middleton under Doc Rivers.

So, it’s fair to wonder how Lillard will play in the postseason.

But the Bucks acquired him for this. For when the halfcourt offense invariably slows down. For when shots and free throws don’t fall for Antetokounmpo and Middleton. For when an opponent has a great offensive night and, frankly, the Bucks must outscore someone.

“Dame Time” is assigned to game-winning shots but here is a chance to make that synonymous with something greater a la “Mr. October.”

This is not to say Lillard must do anything more than he’s doing, but he was held under 20 points in 14 of the 36 games he played in series that saw Portland eliminated. Now, Lillard’s never had players like Antetokounmpo and Middleton to help share not only the scoring load but the attention from defenses, but for Milwaukee to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, Lillard is going to have to score at a high rate.

This isn’t to say Lillard’s defense won’t matter over two months, but the Bucks have really struggled to score points the last two postseasons. Injuries to Middleton and Antetokounmpo have had a lot to do with that, but Lillard is in Milwaukee to be an offensive difference maker this playoff. If he’s giving them 25 points per game with the occasional explosion of 30 to 40 along with a half dozen or so assists, the Bucks will be hard to beat.

Doc Rivers is the right coach at the right time

There is a reason why the Bucks fired Adrian Griffin on Jan. 23 with a 30-13 record. There is a reason why they turned to Rivers, who has one championship ring, two Finals and three conference finals appearances on his résumé. It’s because ownership and the front office felt the Bucks were not trending in a way that could capture a title and that Rivers was the guy to get them on that path.

So here we are.

There were clear growing pains and causes for concern as the Bucks finished the regular season 17-19 under Rivers. But there was growth. They have largely been a better, more consistent team.

And if they’re going to win a second championship in four years, Rivers will be a big reason. He will have to make the right decisions regarding matchups and schemes with the role players. He’ll have to know when and how far to push the workload of the Big Three. He’ll have to recognize when the plan needs to be scrapped and have a new one ready.

If the Bucks win a second championship in four years, Rivers will have a huge hand in it.

The Big Three get healthy

Every team in the playoffs has a roster full of players dealing with assorted ailments, if not outright serious injuries. But the Bucks have not had great luck when it comes to health in the postseason since 2018-19.

That continues this season, as Antetokounmpo's status for the start of the first round is in doubt as he recovers from a strained left soleus muscle, which is one of the two muscles that make up the calf, which he suffered on April 9. Lillard has been dealing with hip and adductor "soreness" since April 9, also, and had to get imaging to confirm he'd be good enough to play in the postseason.

Antetokounmpo missed essentially two games in the 2019-20 East semifinals with an ankle injury and in 2020-21 he suffered a severe left knee injury in the Eastern Conference finals. Of course, he was able to return for the NBA Finals and the rest is history. Middleton’s absence with a knee sprain in the second round in 2021-22 and injuries to Antetokounmpo (back) and Middleton (knee) in the 2022-23 first round vs. Miami helped end their title hopes early.

And, all three players suffered injuries that forced them to miss games during the regular season.

Of course, having their entire rotation healthy for the postseason doesn’t mean the Bucks would roll their way to a championship, but it’s safe to say they haven’t had the luxury of that scenario in years. Getting such luck this spring would give them their best chance to win another championship.

Why the Bucks will not win the championship

The ball stops moving on offense

One on hand, few teams in the playoffs have three players on offense that can get their own shots and nearly any time from 35 feet out all the way to the rim like the Bucks have in Lillard, Middleton and Antetokounmpo. In their respective two-man actions, any of them can get to a spot they like and put up a shot they like.

Usually, that’s a good thing.

But sometimes, it’s not. When the Bucks have struggled offensively the ball stagnates on offense and doesn’t move around. They’ve all fallen into isolation-heavy situations where there were zero- or one-pass possessions that left the team running back the other way after a miss. Following the regular-season ending loss to Orlando on Sunday, Rivers admitted the team is just "not a good iso team."

The pace of the offense slows down when this happens and players like Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Jae Crowder and Pat Connaughton are left standing around. Now, the Bucks don’t typically fall into this issue on a nightly basis but they can for a game – and if that game comes at the wrong time it could send them home early.

The defense loses its connection

Rivers immediately raised the floor of the defense on this team, eliminating porous transition efforts and giving players clear reasons why they were running certain defensive schemes. The improvement for the Bucks on defense has been clear since the first week Rivers was on the job.

But it doesn’t mean the Bucks aren’t a flawed team on that end.

Rivers has acknowledged he will make personnel-based decisions (for his team and who they’re playing) on what to do schematically and that his group needs to be physical at the point of attack and get into players. He has a mantra, that if “you’re off the body, you’re dead.”

The Bucks are big and strong but not quick, and they need to use their advantages in that way to make up for that deficiency. Now, they have a variety of defense to throw at teams. But they all require discipline. They need to play connected zone with proper rotation, smartly blitz pick-and-rolls while recovering quickly, crisply switch off the ball to eliminate mismatches and then physically switch to prevent gaps in that scheme.

Even under Griffin, the Bucks were able to get to stops in clutch moments and they’ve been more consistent under Rivers. But should they slip up on that end, they’ll once again be making early vacation plans.

The Bucks fall victim to another great individual performance

Since the opening of the Bucks’ championship window in the 2019 playoffs, they’ve been sent home in large part because they’ve fallen victim to an opponent’s game or series of a lifetime.

Last season, Miami’s Jimmy Butler averaged 37.6 points on nearly 60% shooting in the first round – including a 56-point effort in Game 4.

Boston’s Jayson Tatum (46 points) in Game 6 and Grant Williams (7 three-pointers) in Game 7 of the 2022 Eastern Conference semifinals to flip a 3-2 Bucks series advantage to send them home. In the 2020 playoff “bubble,” Butler had 40- and 30-point games and Goran Dragić averaged 19.8 points in a second round Heat victory.

In 2019, it was Toronto’s Kawhi Leonard’s closing four games on offense (29.3 points) and defense (10 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 1.3 blocks) that helped erase a 2-0 Bucks lead.

Milwaukee, of course, survived such a performance by Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant (35.4 points, 10.6 rebounds) in the second round of the 2021 championship season.

Sometimes, the other team has a player (or players) who have that series. Unfortunately it's happened to send the Bucks home early in recent years.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: 3 reasons why the Bucks will win the NBA title...and 3 why they won't