Three reasons to believe and three reasons to doubt: Brewers postseason version

The Milwaukee Brewers are taking another bite of the apple.

Sure, it’s a phrase that has and will continue to rankle most Milwaukee Brewers fans, as it harkens back to the day in 2022 closer Josh Hader was traded to the San Diego Padres.

But, putting aside the emotions of that day – and how the deal ultimately kept the team out of the postseason that year – one of the organization’s top priorities has again been achieved with the Brewers reaching the playoffs for the fifth time in the last six seasons with a wild-card series matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It’s a run of success that is unmatched in franchise history, and one small-market Milwaukee should most certainly be proud of accomplishing.

But now the hard work begins.

More: What can we expect from all of the Brewers rookies in the playoffs?

Even though the Diamondbacks got into the playoffs as the third and final wild card in the National League, they certainly will be no pushover with strong starting pitching and defense, a capable offense and a well-regarded manager in Torey Lovullo.

And even though the Brewers are indeed back in the postseason, they enter having won exactly once – Game 1 in the 2021 NL Divisional Series against the eventual champion Atlanta Braves – since 2018.

Their last postseason series victory also came back in 2018, when they swept the Colorado Rockies in the NLDS.

Beat Arizona and the Los Angeles Dodgers – the same team that knocked the Brewers out in seven games in the NLCS in 2018 – await in the NLDS.

Following a 4-0 shutout of the Chicago Cubs to close out the 10th 90-win season in Milwaukee’s 55-year existence, everyone was riding high.

But a bombshell was dropped on Monday afternoon with the news Brandon Woodruff is out for the series – and potentially the entire postseason, should the Brewers advance – with a right shoulder injury.

Here are three reasons to believe the Brewers can advance in the playoffs, and three reasons to doubt.

THREE REASONS TO BELIEVE

The remaining pitching is still really good

No question, the Brewers suffered a huge blow with Woodruff, the scheduled Game 2 starter, now sidelined.

That puts even more pressure on Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes to deliver and for whoever is tapped to start in Woodruff's place – Freddy Peralta or potentially Wade Miley –  to assume an even larger burden.

Corbin Burnes threw only 66 pitches over four innings before being pulled from his final start of the regular season, so he should be well rested. Peralta, meanwhile, had his start skipped entirely.

In the bullpen, appearances were pre-determined and monitored closely to keep relievers sharp yet fresh.

Will that all be enough? It could be in a three-game series.

A five- or seven-game series would be a much different story.

The defense is airtight

Milwaukee was built on its pitching and defense – both vital elements for postseason success.

We’ve already talked about the arms. Now, for the gloves.

According to Statcast, the Brewers were the best defensively in the major leagues in 2023 by recording 40 outs above average. Meanwhile, The Fielding Bible ranked Milwaukee second in the majors in defensive runs saved with 66 (the Toronto Blue Jays led with 82, thanks in large part to centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier).

Individually, no one has been better on the Brewers defensively than Willy Adames. Despite his struggles at the plate he has been a constant at shortstop, where he led the Brewers with 16 outs above average, a total that ranked fifth overall in the major leagues, fourth in the NL and second among shortstops behind only Dansby Swanson of the Chicago Cubs (20).

Elsewhere around the diamond, catcher William Contreras has developed into a defensive difference-maker behind the plate both with his pitch framing and game calling, while rookie Sal Frelick has been a highlight reel since being called up by making a number of tremendous plays in the outfield.

Craig Counsell is calling the shots

The Brewers are in sound managerial hands with Craig Counsell at the helm.

Milwaukee posted the best record in the major leagues from Aug. 18 through the end of the regular season and essentially ran away from the surprising Chicago Cubs in the NL Central Division race in September to clinch their third crown in the last six seasons.

The Brewers were also an excellent 29-18 in one-run games, a stat that certainly will matter in October.

Counsell is adept at making out lineups, handling the bullpen and making the strategic calls late in games.

He's also a master motivator.

Perhaps this will be the season he wins his first NL manager of the year award. But it's the World Series trophy that Counsell has his eyes on.

THREE REASONS TO DOUBT

The offense has been too inconsistent

Let's first give credit where credit is due: The bats have been better and more consistent in recent weeks.

But overall, the struggles have been well-documented with a lack of timely hitting, an inability to move runners over and high strikeout totals.

And with the pitching making a step up in the postseason, those flaws are easily magnified (take a look back at the 2021 NLDS loss to the Braves for a refresher).

Contreras has been the steadying force at the plate, coming through consistently in the clutch.

Christian Yelich was in the midst of a solid comeback season when low-back trouble forced him to the sideline. He's since returned, and Milwaukee needs him to swing it like he was from May through July.

This is also the time when veteran pickup Josh Donaldson needs to step up his play. He has a wealth of postseason experience and is a power threat every time he comes to bat, but in his brief time with the Brewers he's hitting just .169 with three homers and 11 RBI.

Fellow veterans Carlos Santana and Mark Canha were also brought aboard primarily for their bats, and both have played in the playoffs plenty as well.

While no one should expect Milwaukee to suddenly become a small-ball team, it's worth remembering the team does have players such as Brice Turang, Frelick and Blake Perkins who have shown they are adept at dropping down bunts.

Any way to get on base and create runs is a good thing this time of the year.

There are a lot of postseason first-timers

The Brewers have a wealth of battle-tested veterans who are no stranger to the postseason.

But they've also relied heavily upon a large group of neophytes – Turang, Frelick, Andruw Monasterio, Elvis Peguero and Abner Uribe – to get to this point. And there are others like Perkins, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer who factored in as well.

How will they respond when the lights are at their brightest?

No one will know until the moment arrives.

The NL postseason field is daunting

First things first: The Brewers need to dispatch the Diamondbacks, which becomes that much more difficult now without Woodruff.

If that happens, the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers await in the five-game NLDS, with the first two games played at Dodger Stadium – a house of horrors for them in recent years.

The Dodgers, while weakened considerably in their rotation, have a formidable offense centered around NL MVP candidate Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Will Smith.

Then don't forget perennial Brewer killer Chris Taylor.

If somehow Milwaukee managed to get past Los Angeles, then it would be (barring a major upset) the Braves, possessor of one of the scariest offenses in recent memory.

Oh yeah, and their pitching isn't so bad, either. Spencer Strider is the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, and he could give Atlanta a clean sweep of the two top individual prizes if Ronald Acuña Jr. can hold off Betts for MVP.

Nobody said it was going to be easy.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers in the playoffs: Reasons to believe or doubt they'll succeed