The top 5 bad beats in Super Bowl betting history, including the 28-3 debacle
A bad beat in Week 4 of the NFL regular season or on some buzzer-beater in a random college basketball game will sting.
A bad beat in the Super Bowl will linger forever.
The Super Bowl draws in every bettor, from the one who makes one wager a year to the pro who grinds out the betting card at BetMGM every day. If there’s a bad beat in the Super Bowl, you will have plenty of people to commiserate with.
There haven’t been too many bad beats in Super Bowl history, surprisingly. But these five will live forever.
5. Patrick Mahomes’ rushing yards fiasco
When you bet on over 30.5 rushing yards and your player has 44, you never consider that you could lose the bet.
There was a doozy of a bad beat in the Super Bowl two years ago. Patrick Mahomes had 44 rushing yards for the Kansas City Chiefs, well beyond the total of 30.5. Even if Mahomes took a few kneel-downs at the end of the game, he was never going to lose 14 yards. And yet …
When the Chiefs started taking a knee at the end of the game, Mahomes wanted to kill some extra time off the clock. So he retreated a few yards each time. And after taking a knee three times he had somehow lost 15 yards. He finished with 29 rushing yards.
There are countless prop bets for Super Bowls and there are probably some wild stories of overs not cashing due to a penalty or a lock not hitting because a safety was the first score of the game. But there’s been nothing quite like the Mahomes prop losing.
4. Steelers-Cardinals scoring spree
The Cardinals-Steelers over/under in Super Bowl XLIII was 46, and nobody with the under was worried when the score was 20-14 with three minutes to go. Then there was a safety, followed by Larry Fitzgerald taking off down the middle of the field.
A safety on the Steelers made the score 20-16, and Fitzgerald’s long touchdown gave the Cardinals a 23-20 lead with 2:37 left. Then the Steelers went on one of the great drives in Super Bowl history, with Santonio Holmes scoring with 35 seconds left on a famous catch in the end zone. The Steelers won 27-23. Under 46 bettors saw a bet that looked great for 57 minutes get ruined in the final three minutes. And there was a play at the end of the first half that didn't help the under and really burned first-half bettors ...
4a. James Harrison's interception
Let's give an honorable mention to another Super Bowl XLIII beat. Harrison's 100-yard interception return is one of the most famous plays in NFL history. It's infamous to some bettors.
The Cardinals were +3 in the first half. They were inside the 10-yard line, trailing 10-7 in the final seconds of the first half. Bettors were at least getting a push, right? Wrong. Harrison picked off Kurt Warner and had one of the greatest return touchdowns in history. He barely got in the end one. Anyone figuring they at least had a push, and probably a win, on Cards +3 couldn't believe what happened.
3. Steelers and Cowboys hit the middle
The bad beat from Super Bowl XIII wasn’t a traditional one, because this one happened to the sportsbooks. It’s why you see oddsmakers, even decades later, be very wary about moving the point spread too much during Super Bowl week.
The Steelers opened as 4.5-point favorites. That line moved to 3.5 when bettors took the Cowboys. This is where we learn about the term “middled.”
The game landed just wrong for sportsbooks. The Steelers won 35-31, and the four-point Pittsburgh win was a disaster for the house. All the Steelers -3.5 tickets won. All the Cowboys +4.5 tickets won too. That’s a brutal middle. You have to feel a little bad for the sportsbooks after that. No? OK, let’s move on.
2. Seahawks lose on Malcolm Butler INT
Seahawks vs. Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX was an incredible game, arguably the greatest one in NFL history. The teams were so well matched that the point spread was a pick 'em, the only time that has happened in a Super Bowl.
Seahawks bettors are still wondering why Marshawn Lynch didn’t get the ball at the end to secure a win.
The Seahawks drove to the 1-yard line, Pete Carroll and his staff probably overthought clock management and instead of giving it to Lynch they had Russell Wilson pass it. Not only that, they called a pass to the middle of the field where bad things can happen. Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler saw it coming, made a phenomenal play and picked it off for a stunning turn of events and one monumental bad beat.
1. Falcons blow 28-3, and the under
Presumably, plenty of bettors who had the Atlanta Falcons at +3 in Super Bowl LI saw “bad beats in the Super Bowl” in the headline and refused to read any further, knowing this one would be at the top of the list. The pain from the Super Bowl LI bad beat will live forever.
Not that anyone needs a refresher, but the underdog Falcons led the New England Patriots 28-3 in the third quarter. Their win probability on just about any model was over 99 percent. Then the Patriots hit every single green light the rest of the game (16 of them, in fact), tying it on a two-point conversion late. Even a field goal win by the Patriots would be a push, or a win for the bettors who took the Falcons when they were +3.5. Then Patriots running back James White scored a touchdown on the first drive of overtime to make the worst beat in Super Bowl history official.
Even worse: Under 57 points looked like a lock most of the game until it fell too. When the game was tied 28-28 at the end of regulation, the over was clinched. If you had a Falcons-under parlay, you haven’t gotten over that beat. And you never will.
