The Overhang: NFL scoring is down, and offenses have been sputtering, and here's why

Does it feel like points are extra hard to come by for NFL teams this season? Does "2023" not feel like the year, but the score for every game? A smattering of touchdowns, plus a six-pack of field-goal attempts with one inevitable missed chip shot that hangs over your team’s head the whole day?

You are not alone in feeling that way. NFL offenses have been sputtering, scoring the fewest points per game through the opening six weeks (20.5) since 2010. And there are more underlying numbers that have this season feeling all recession-era, LMFAO’s Party Rock-ish.

Offenses are simply not creating chunk plays through the air or on the ground, a culmination of a recent trend (or renaissance) in defensive philosophy that wants to make offenses earn those yards and points, sacrificing multiple short gains to take away the long ball. While more reps can lead to leaner muscle in real life, it forces offenses to make effective plays constantly and hope their moments of selected aggression work out more often than not.

The plays offenses are throwing at these defenses have not been packing the wallop they used to. And it’s not because of loud music or Dan Fogelberg. It’s the culmination of league trends on both sides of the ball. Even to the simple eye test of watching an NFL game (or checking your fantasy scores) it’s apparent. But the underlying numbers are stark: The league average explosive play rate of 10% in 2023 is the lowest through six weeks since the start of TruMedia’s play data in 2000. And both run games and passing games have been hit.

(I’ll try to do my best with narrowing down the “since the year 20xx” statistical disclaimers. But, also, like, be ready.)

The trade-off is supposed to be that offenses are able, nay, allowed to be efficient. Peppering the defense underneath with 5-to-8-yard gains and testing the deep ball every once in a while to keep safeties from creeping down.

But the problem is offenses aren't complying. They hear all of us crying for yards and points and whisper, “No.”

NFL offensive statistics in 2023 are ... stark

NFL offenses had an offensive success rate of 41.2% and passing success rate of 43.7% through the first six weeks of this season. Both are the third-lowest rates in their categories since 2000 and the lowest in a decade. And even running the ball has been more “fine” than “good,” with success rate sitting right around the NFL average over the previous 20 years.

The passing game is a large part of these ill-advised attempts at moving the ball. And the run game hasn’t been efficient or explosive (with the lowest explosive run rate, meaning 12-plus yards, since at least 2000) enough to overcome it.

Quarterbacks are currently averaging the lowest expected points added per dropback and per pass attempt on record. It’s the first time the EPA per dropback mark has ever had an average in the negatives, meaning a standard dropback play in 2023 is, on average, more beneficial for the defense than the offense.

Offenses in general are following suit, with their total EPA and EPA per play both hitting their lowest marks since, yes again, the year 2000.

For those who are more fluent in standard counting stats, in 2023 quarterbacks are currently throwing touchdowns on 3.9% of their pass attempts and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Both are lows that we haven’t seen since 2008. This season currently features the lowest yards per completion on record ever. Quarterbacks are currently recording a first down on 31.4% of their dropbacks, the lowest since 2003.

Not to worry, right? “Quarterbacks are more athletic than ever!” you say. “Just sprinkle a little QB run game on it!” And, well, yes that is true. More quarterbacks use their legs as a consistent weapon these days. But it might be playing into the defense's hands, and also artificially lifting some of these stats.

Quarterbacks are currently scrambling more than ever, with the scramble per dropback rate hitting 5% for the first time through this point in the season. They are also taking sacks at a rate we haven’t seen since Will Smith was rapping about Miami, currently sitting at a sack rate of 7.2% that feels downright wrong and will hinder any offense.

Scrambling has remained as effective as ever on a per-play basis. But it also means those dropback numbers are being artificially inflated by the legs of quarterbacks in 2023 (the three results of a dropback being a scramble, sack or pass attempt). So that whole “pass attempt” thing has been a slog.

So it’s hard to consistently get yards right now. It’s also hard to get a lot of yards at once. And when you do get a bunch of yards at once, you might give it right back on a sack. Surely it gets easier once offenses get closer to paydirt, right? Closer to those golden 6 points that make it all worth it? Maybe even a group celebration to cap it off?

Nah. Defenses are straight laughing at that whole “touchdown” idea. Offenses are currently scoring touchdowns on just 53.3% of their drives that have reached the red zone, the lowest rate since 2012 and nearly a 10% drop from 2020’s six-week rate of 62.7%. And that’s with more aggressive play-calling on fourth down from head coaches across the league.

Who or what is to blame for NFL scoring being down?

So now that we’ve seen the crime scene that we’ll call offensive performances, who or what is to blame? Why is this all happening?

I think this plays out more like an ending to a "Scream" movie (except the third one, spoilers) in that there are several killers (of offenses), rather than just one villain. Because, like a lot of things involving football, several variables are a factor.

First and foremost, and something I hinted at: Defenses are currently running more zone coverages, with upticks in Cover 4, Cover 6 and Cover 3 steadily increasing league-wide until finding this current meta of Cover 3 and 4 being the yin and yang to most looks. As a result, man coverage has dropped significantly league-wide, from 28.3% in 2019 to 18% in 2023. (Except with the Browns and Jim Schwartz, because the world needs outliers.)

Zone coverages simply make quarterbacks work, mentally and physically. They have to find the proper place to go with the ball, and then they have to deliver the throw in between several closing defenders. With man coverage, a quarterback can choose a personnel or route matchup that he feels is advantageous and go from there. So again, defenses are forcing offenses to be efficient rather than give them chances at simple point-and-shoot looks.

Even longtime man coverage users like New England's Bill Belichick and his disciple Brian Flores of Minnesota have increased their use of zone coverages, with Flores even dropping eight defenders into coverage at a cartoonish 17.2% rate this season, four times the league average.

Also that increase in Cover 4 — remember bend, don’t break — has carried over into the red zone. There has been a slight uptick in Cover 4 along with Cover 0 (think “Engage Eight” in Madden or an all-out blitz variety) inside the 20-yard line to heat up quarterbacks into making quick decisions, testing offensive line rules and also allowing a defense's defensive backs to play aggressively in coverage, both in the red zone and the field:

Defensive coordinators are min-maxing the more finesse and adaptable “soft” zone coverage looks with the sheer aggression of sending the house in the field and red zone. Basically, if Buddy Ryan and Monte Kiffin’s schematic trees cross-pollinated (and I don’t mean Rex and Lane), it'd result in modern defenses. Because while teams are running more Cover 4 and zone than ever, they are also running Cover 0 at its highest rate league-wide since 2019, TruMedia’s first year with coverage data. In fact, the two games with the highest rate of blitzes from one defense both happened this year — from the aforementioned Flores, now defensive coordinator for the Vikings, against the Chargers in Week 3, and three days earlier by the New York Giants and their blitz-enthusiast defensive coordinator Wink Martindale against the San Francisco 49ers.

That philosophy has also kept offenses from even having chances at the end zone and forcing them to settle. Teams are currently averaging 2.11 field-goal attempts per game, which would be the most since 1973 if it currently holds. That's also the last year when field-goal posts were hilariously and dangerously located in the front of the end zone — which isn’t a coincidence.

Defenses are also outright better now.

As offenses become distilled to learn how to create yards, the defensive countermeasures do the same, whether it’s the modern quarterback run game or a Kyle Shanahan bootleg attack or staple play-action and third-down concepts. Defenses found tweaks that worked. As quarterbacks and pass-catchers evolved, the defensive backs and coaches who defended against them did as well. Safeties now have experience in defending the common route paths from the Shanahan passing game and others that have proliferated throughout the league, especially for play-action concepts featuring overs and posts that require communication and cohesion between multiple defensive players.

And as offenses feel suffocated, they have to try and create explosive plays to get some breathing room. Recent Cowboys offense vs. 49ers defense tilts have been great examples of an efficient offense not being able to create enough haymakers to keep a defense at bay. It's lone survivor simply running out of ammo against a zombie-like defense always moving forward.

Dropping back further or frequently calling longer-developing plays leaves quarterbacks and offensive lines exposed to the talented defensive lines with endless pass rushers who seemingly every team has these days.

Again, those endless waves of pass rushers are not a mirage of a few bad offensive performances on island games. Teams are allocating more of their salary cap to the defensive line than ever, with that mark hitting over 13% for the first time ever according to Spotrac. And it’s not just empty spending, with teams like the Browns, Cowboys, Jets and 49ers realizing the booster effect each talented pass rush seems to have on their front and overall defense. (And, frankly, just the team overall.)

Those pass rushers seem to be everywhere. So far this season, 107 pass rushers have a pressure rate of 10% or more, according to Next Gen Stats, which is 21 more than a year ago at this point in the season. And defenses currently have the highest pressure and quarterback knockdown rate with just four pass rushers going back to the beginning of TruMedia’s pressure data in 2019. QBs are being knocked down 186 more times in 2023 compared to 2019. Those hits add up!

That means any offense that has featured one, or several (I’m so sorry, Giants fans) offensive line injuries is already tempting fate with every aggressive play-call on their call sheet. And if they don’t have a quarterback who can mitigate the pass rush with quick decision-making or playmaking, offensive coaches have to get into the lab to figure out how they can create chunk plays.

Quarterbacks are culpable, too

Now what about the players throwing the football? They are young, a little dumb and ready to run.

Mike Sando of The Athletic recently looked into the changing of the guard that’s currently happening at the position. A recent flux of quarterbacks from the golden age of throwing have ridden off into the sunset, and a new wave of starters with limited experience have taken over the league.

According to Sando’s research, there were just two quarterbacks with 13 or more years of starting experience who started Week 1 in 2023. And that includes Aaron Rodgers’ grand total of four plays with the Jets.

That is a steep drop from 2017, which featured nine such quarterbacks. More importantly, there were 15 QBs who were between Years 1-4 starting Week 1. Nearly half of the league featured a quarterback on their rookie contract. There were just eight rookie contract quarterbacks in 2018.

The quarterbacks are less experienced in terms of seasons as a professional, but also in general age, which is a result of players entering the NFL Draft earlier. The average age drop from Week 1 starters in 2022 to 2023 was the third-largest decline since at least 1950.

So to summarize: There's been a dropoff from players like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan to a crop of signal-callers who are entering the league earlier, while defenses are getting smarter and clamping down on offenses league-wide, with better and more pass rushers and throw it in with any offensive line woes. And that’s how you get the lowest explosive play rate, a bottom-three success rate, and a record scrambling rate along with the highest sack rate in 25 years. These past few seasons have been the scientists adding marbles to the bowl in "Oppenheimer," and the first six weeks have been the detonation.

Will NFL offenses rebound anytime soon?

Is this the new norm? Are NFL games now confined to a race to 20 points?

While there will still be some schlock-filled performances this season, I do think offenses will rebound. If not this year, then next season.

Quarterbacks receiving experience in live situations will pay dividends down the road, even if not all of them work out for their current team (or ever). C.J. Stroud has been a standout rookie and there are a plethora of talented quarterbacks under 30 in just the AFC alone. We may have been spoiled with the group retiring and not remembering their early careers as well.

New counterpunches will be developed by a team that become a new staple, which will then be copied and molded by other teams. Much like what teams like the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams have done this season in terms of using motion, which other teams have already mixed into their own attacks. (Also, sidenote: This overall offensive trend hasn’t really affected the Dolphins, who have been putting up historic numbers and are also doing things like having the highest touchdown rate in the red zone ever, despite rates being depressed league-wide. Mike McDaniel is very good at this stuff.)

Perhaps teams will learn that they have reached critical mass in some regards — the NFL has never been in the shotgun more than this season — and will revert back to looks of yesteryear. Like how the Rams use Puka Nacua essentially as a fullback at times:

Or maybe just with personnel and formation. Some of the top offenses like the Dolphins, 49ers, Lions, Bills and Chiefs feature fullbacks and multiple tight end looks and multiplicity to keep defenses on their toes. Become less predictable and one-dimensional for defenses to tee off on.

And there’s nothing like a good ol’ “emphasis on illegal contact” that the rules committee might throw in there to help.

Scoring and offensive output might not reach the highs of the late 2010s, but coaches and players will adjust and adapt and modify. It’s the cyclical nature of the NFL, from the players to the play calls. Defenses are having their moment. And it’s going to be interesting to see what offensive coaches cook up, and what players emerge, to reclaim those golden 6 points.