The Overhang: Can Mike McDaniel scheme his way out of Dolphins' injury hell? Is Patrick Mahomes doomed because of Chiefs' drops?

Any given Sunday (or Monday, or soon, Saturday, or Black Friday …)!

That’s what’s great about the NFL. Teams that recently took one on the chin can fire back the following week and completely derail a contender’s plans. Lost your starting quarterback? Ah, no worries, let’s rip off two straight against playoff teams.

It’s how every week can be in every season, especially in 2023, the year of the defense, the punt and the quarterbacks (emphasis on plural).

Six division leaders lost in Week 14. With that being the case, I am going to bring out my patented Worry-O-Meter and how I rate the level of concern I feel for each team’s contender chances (you’ll notice I was hungry when I wrote this article, which will be apparent once you reach each team’s rating). I am going to skip over the Falcons and the NFC South. I'll deal with that division once it starts to make itself presentable.

For the remaining five potential division leaders, let’s take a look and see what the Meter says:

Kansas City Chiefs

I know about the Chiefs' wide receivers. You know about the Chiefs' wide receivers. They are starting to get rattled off on social media and talking head shows like Santa’s reindeer: “there’s Valdes-Scantling and Toney and Moore and Blitzen.”

Kadarius Toney’s offensive offsides penalty has gotten plenty of the shine. But the Chiefs' young wide receivers room has had numerous instances every week with misaligning pre-snap or lacking detail on their assignment post-snap.

Then there are the drops. Oh, the drops.

The Chiefs have lost 25.2 expected points this year from drops from their pass catchers. That ranks fourth in the NFL. If you narrowed it to just drops by Chiefs wide receivers (which 15 of their 23 team drops have been by), the Chiefs have lost 21.9 expected points from drops, which would rank first in the NFL. This offense is also tied for first with the Seattle Seahawks in penalties per snap (6.2%).

Even with the drops and inconsistent play from their young WRs, it’s not like this offense has been bad. In fact, it’s still good. There are flashes of high-end play and drives that remind you, “oh, ya, it’s Mahomes and the Chiefs.” They’re eighth in underlying metrics like offensive success rate and EPA per play, and fourth in offensive DVOA. Their passing game does most of the work, ranking top five in the same categories.

The Chiefs' run game, something that has been a top-10 unit in efficiency since Mahomes has been KC's starter but has severely struggled most of the year, has finally found its footing post-bye week. Chiefs running backs averaged 3.6 yards per run and had a 29.1% success rate from Weeks 1-9, ranking 26th and 25th respectively. After their Week 10 bye, Chiefs running backs are averaging 4.5 yards per run and have a 37.9% success rate on early downs. Good for 10th and eighth in the NFL over that time span.

Something the Chiefs have shied away from post-bye week that they should lean back into is their use of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver). It’s a personnel grouping that they leaned into over the past few seasons, to great success, as it forces defenses to pick their poison of committing to limiting Travis Kelce by keeping defensive backs on the field (Mahomes has had an efficient pass on 23 of the Chiefs' 34 dropbacks out of 13 personnel, a 67.6% success rate that is simply comical), or using more linebackers to stop the run. The Chiefs, curiously, have gotten away from using 13 personnel following their bye week. Using it on 9.9% of their snaps before the bye (second in the NFL) to 4.7% over the past four weeks (12th). They have been poor running the ball out of their heavier personnel groupings, which might tie in to their run game improvement by using this personnel grouping less often, but it strips away a simple way to steal positive plays (while also limiting the potential damage a young Chiefs wide receiver might do. Which team he damages is anyone’s guess).

The Chiefs might be galvanized by their recent end game sequences and perceived slights. Patrick Mahomes might enter his MADhomes persona and go full Thanos the rest of the way (the Chiefs' remaining schedule: the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers; there's some friskiness here with Bill Belichick, Lou Anurumo and a solid Raiders unit, but no true heavyweight). Despite the improved run game and baby steps from players like Rashee Rice (despite his fumble Sunday), the Chiefs' wide receivers are a true wild card for KC and the AFC.

If they can simply get out of their own way, even limit their mistakes by just a portion, this Chiefs team still has Mahomes, a capable offensive line (rookie left tackle Wanya Morris held up OK in his first extended action), Kelce and a defense that, despite some injuries, is still playing like a top-10 unit. And they have Andy Reid and a defensive coordinator who is legendary for his week-to-week playoff game plans.

The drops are annoying. The penalties more so. But this Chiefs team should be looked at like a true contender in the AFC, especially when you look at the other teams battling for playoff spots. There’s still worry, and yes, January creeps ever closer. But I am not clutching my pearls quite yet.

Worry-o-meter: A quarter-slab of ribs

Miami Dolphins

An absolutely bonkers game Monday night combined with the moments of “oh, ya, Josh Allen” on Sunday has the once-sunny Dolphins season feeling like an afternoon sun-shower.

0.4%! That’s worse odds than that parlay you played last weekend.

So, what happened?

This defense has ranked among the league’s best since the return of Jalen Ramsey in Week 8. With the second-best success rate and fourth-best mark in EPA per play over that time period, Ramsey’s return allowed Kader Kohou to bump inside to the slot, boosting two positions on the backend of Vic Fangio’s defense.

The Dolphins' front, even after the devastating injury to budding star Jaelan Phillips, has been excellent over this time. The group has stopped the run at a league-leading rate and the Dolphins are tied for third with 44 quarterback hits. More remarkable considering the Dolphins send only four pass rushers at the highest-rate in the NFL. Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler and Bradley Chubb lead a very good group even without Phillips.

As long as safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott can return from their injuries, I feel good about where this defense stands. Despite the Will Levis experience on Monday.

For the Dolphins' offense, it'll comes down to how Miami deals with its bad health luck. That's a compliment to head coach Mike McDaniel and his ability to adjust week to week and on the fly during games. Left tackle Terron Armstead missed Monday’s game with a knee injury, center Connor Williams is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury suffered Monday night and right guard Robert Hunt will likely miss more time with a hamstring injury.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury and fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle left the Titans game with an injury before returning.

Despite the injuries and unfortunate turnovers in the red zone, the Dolphins' offense has still moved the ball and can still put up points in a hurry. The Dolphins have had one game this entire season in which their combined success and explosive rate dipped below 50% (which is considered league average). They have finished with 20 or more first downs in every game besides one. They have finished with six or more explosive plays in every single game and still average over nine of them, an output most offenses would kill for. This offense has continued to find ways to get yards and points no matter the personnel out there (so long as Hill is one of the players out there), whether it’s on the opening script or because of an in-game adjustment.

Offensive line injuries have a natural effect on the health of a run game. That has the potential to tarnish McDaniel's great designs and speed of the Dolphins' weapons, which is very important for any offense, especially this Miami offense that despite the valuable contributions from Hill, still ebbs and flows with how it's doing on the ground.

McDaniel has already shown an impressive ability to mitigate injuries and adjust to whatever is ailing his offense over his first two seasons in Miami. He will have to do some of his finest work yet with a gauntlet of a schedule to finish the season. I think this Dolphins defense is playing championship-caliber football recently and the offense can go nuclear at any given moment. The Dolphins will be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone in their conference.

(As long as they make it there first.)

Worry-o-meter: 5 out of 10 oz. of a filet at Shula’s

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are weird. They have 10 wins. They are tied for first in the division and have a very real shot of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, with their schedule including a desperate Seahawks team, the pesky Cardinals and the cutlet-filled New York Giants twice.

They will be heavily favored in every game remaining. So, what’s the issue?

Well, it’s how the Eagles stack up against the teams they just played back-to-back, the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles will have to at least face one of them come playoff time.

The 49ers and Cowboys both relentlessly attacked the spine of the Eagles' defense. The Eagles' depleted linebackers and defensive backs rooms got peppered on the ground and through the air by the 49ers' use of motion and pre-and-post-snap eye candy:

The Cowboys were putting four wide receivers on the field to toy with the already exhausted Eagles secondary and creating one-on-ones between CeeDee Lamb and 31-year-old Bradley Roby, who was on the Eagles' practice squad to start the season:

Relentlessly isolating the Eagles linebackers and safeties has been a successful venture for offenses this year. Dak Prescott targeted Lamb 10 times in the slot in the first Cowboys-Eagles matchup this year and the Eagles' defense currently ranks 32nd in DVOA when defending tight ends. That's something you might have noticed when Jake Ferguson and George Kittle were hauling in one of their 16 receptions for 231 yards in their combined three games against the Eagles.

This Eagles defense has been more Swiss cheese than the Cheez Whiz the ECW Mutants want. It was an expected natural regression but made even more severe given the patchwork personnel that has occupied about half of that unit’s starters. The Eagles currently rank 29th in defensive success rate (tied with the Denver Broncos, aka “that defense that gave up 70”) and 22nd in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent week performances.

There is nothing for this defense to currently lean on. It generates pressure at a league average rate, generate tackles for loss and run stuffs at a slightly above-average rate, but is generally below-average stopping the run. Philly's defensive front still has plenty of pieces: Hasson Reddick still gets his sacks, Josh Sweat is a good starter, Milton Williams has had a nice year, Jalen Carter has been as advertised and looks like he can be already chalked up as an All-Pro in 2024. But Jordan Davis has not been an impact player and planned starting linebacker Nakobe Dean hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Davis and Dean were (and Davis still is) the Eagles' planned answers to shore up their run defense. Right now, even if the defensive line creates edginess along the offensive line, the linebackers and safeties are unable to shore up any mistakes. Where a run look like this:

Suddenly looks like this:

The defense has been caught in a transition year. It can still create a pass rush with four, something that is critical in the playoffs, but when the backend personnel is depleted without a simple answer in terms of reinforcements, how will the Eagles find an answer? Do they get into more funky looks and blitz more? It will be interesting to see. Hopefully their schedule will allow them to experiment to find an answer.

The Eagles' offense still has stretches of inconsistency, but Philly's run game is still strong and it can create an explosive play at any moment. Defenses have been giving the Eagles issues recently with Cover 2, also known as “clouding,” when A.J. Brown is isolated.

The opposition has also changed the picture post-snap, for instance rotating a safety from in the box to a deep position, which changes how Hurts operates on a given play. That has created hesitation for Hurts and the offense.

The Cowboys also blitzed Hurts five times on third and fourth down. And the Cowboys, even when not creating a free runner toward Hurts, made Hurts feel heat when operating from the pocket, leading to quick throws (Hurts’ average time to throw of 2.46 seconds was tied for his quickest in a single game ever as a starter) well short of the sticks or before Eagles pass catchers were breaking on their routes.

The Eagles still have talent on their offense. They can create a chunk play with one fell swoop and were still moving the ball on the Cowboys before some ill-timed turnovers. Their quarterback run game even had some nice moments, something that has been surprisingly inefficient for them this season.

I think the offense can find answers, even if it isn’t always easy. But the defense, especially given the lack of cavalry on the way and recent performances against the NFC’s elite (plus the Bills the week before), has the worry-o-meter growing brighter.

Worry-o-meter: 8 out of 10 inches of a cheesesteak

Jacksonville Jaguars

A week after getting Flacco’d, the Jaguars will be facing Joe Flacco’s original NFL team, the Baltimore Ravens. There is no relief with an NFL schedule.

The Jaguars' linebackers are starting to get highlighted, with Foyesade Oluokun’s run-first attitude and Devin Lloyd’s inconsistent play starting to get picked at. The Browns took advantage of those deficiencies on David Njoku’s second touchdown of the day:

The Browns run a play-action concept that sucks Oluokun (yellow) up like a tractor beam, where he ends up near the line of scrimmage. On top of it, Lloyd (red) assumes that Oluokun will be picking up the crossing Njoku in coverage, you can even see him pointing:

The Jaguars are one of the worst defenses at all of the things that generally attack linebackers. They are a bottom five unit defending play-action concepts, which are plays that naturally put a linebacker in a bind between their run and pass responsibilities. The first Njoku touchdown came on a play-action concept that caused a miscommunication with the defense where no one covered Njoku:

Pre-snap motion, which puts a strain on defenses and their ability to communicate and be on the same page, has also been good against the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed 4.7 yards per attempt and a first down on 25.6% on runs that feature pre-snap motion, eighth and seventh highest in each of their categories.

Teams have run 55 screens against the Jaguars, tied for second-most in the NFL. While defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell definitely has an affinity for bringing exotic blitz looks, teams like to run screens against the Jaguars because they know how successful those screens can be. Offenses average 7.1 yards per play on screen plays against the Jaguars, fourth-highest in the league.

The Jaguars miss Tyson Campbell and their defense can still be strong against the run, even with injuries to a few of their starters. But multiple offenses have started to manipulate the middle of the Jaguars' defense, making it worrisome when Jacksonville goes against the AFC's elite offenses. The Ravens will be a tough test before the Jags' schedule loosens up.

The offensive line is in rough shape and the Jaguars miss Christian Kirk, who provides a big play element from the slot that Trevor Lawrence loves to attack in man coverage situations. Several turnovers have recently come from miscommunication or inexperience with Jaguars wide receivers, an interception because Calvin Ridley didn’t look for the ball, Parker Washington attempting to try and get more yards in a hopeless third-and-forever situation (he also didn’t look for the ball on the play Lawrence suffered the high ankle sprain against the Bengals).

This offense can still have good moments, with Washington having several positive plays as he’s earned more playing time and Lawrence capable of picking apart defenses when he gets hot. The Jaguars have also started to find some schematic offensive improvements, namely more two tight end looks and play-action concepts, but the injuries and inconsistent run game because of offensive line injuries and Travis Etienne’s boom-or-bust style (please more D’Ernest Johnson snaps, Doug Pederson) make it feel uneven. Even with Lawrence shouldering as much load as possible.

I still think of this Jaguars team is a good because of what this offense (especially Lawrence) and defense are capable of, which makes me think they’ll still be hosting a playoff game wild-card weekend. But injuries, offensive line woes and shaky defenses have sunk many promising seasons, especially ones that were talking “one seed” only a few weeks ago.

Worry-o-meter: 8 out of 10 drinks at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party

Detroit Lions

Luckily for the Lions, Justin Fields and his legs are no longer on the schedule (although Russell Wilson has been running around like it’s 2019 in Denver this season. A possible Wilson rushing over prop this weekend?)

Sadly, though, I am not sure what will help out the Lions' defense that has been among the league’s worst since playing the Ravens in Week 7. Since then, the Lions rank 27th in defensive success rate and have given up an explosive play on 12.9% of their plays, sandwiched between the Jaguars and Eagles (scroll up for more) in 29th.

Like the Jaguars and Eagles, the Lions' linebackers have gotten the spotlight from offenses. Rookie Jack Campbell’s play has been hesitant and he has constantly been attacked by teams’ play-action concepts. Alex Anzalone has regressed after a solid start to the season, while he is often more than capable in the run game, Anzalone has struggled at times to keep up in coverage.

Teams have averaged 10.4 yards per play when using play-action concepts against the Lions since Week 7. That's highest in the league. Those explosive plays happened in general because of poor tackling or run fits have plagued this defense from being able to reach any sustainability to match its well-designed offense. At times the defensive coverage can feel predictable, which can lead to easy reads for quarterbacks. Detroit's man coverage looks are often telegraphed, which can negate any potential pass rush because the quarterback can promptly get rid of the ball. The Lions have allowed 6.9 yards per play and -.29 EPA per play when defending in Cover 1, with the Eagles being the only defense ranking worse among the 15 defenses that use Cover 1 on 20% or more of their snaps.

There simply haven’t been enough explosive plays by this defense to compensate for how often it has been getting gashed. The Lions rank third in pressure rate since Week 7 but that figure drops to 12th when rushing only four. They're both encouraging numbers, but those have translated to only 13 sacks (perhaps some regression soon?). The Lions too often allow offenses to stay in manageable situations. They already miss 2023 breakout player Alim McNeill and this defense feels like it’s one pass rusher away (James Houston should hopefully return soon and can bring juice up front come playoff time). This can help the Lions at least get a little punch, but their lack of ability to stop the run and defend throws over the middle will be a constant thorn in their side for the rest of the season.

The Lions offensive sorely missed center Frank Ragnow, who has been playing at an All-Pro level this year, this past weekend against the Bears. He hopefully returns this week. The offensive line in general has faced a recent swath of injuries, and its ability to play at a high level makes this offense go. With left tackle Taylor Decker battling a back injury and left guard Jonah Jackson having only recently returned from injury, keeping the Lions' front on the field is of the utmost importance for this unit (and team, really).

Jared Goff is a completely different quarterback when pressured. When he has clean pockets, his throws stack up with some of the best, but when under duress his success rate drops 19.2%, about the same as rookie Will Levis. Blitzing Goff behind any potential backup offensive linemen can be something that defenses look to lean into. But, if that group is healthy, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be able to find his moments to throw haymakers and keep this Lions offense firing. It’ll just have to keep up with offenses throwing haymakers of their own.

Worry-o-meter: A whole Hot-N-Ready pizza