The Daily Sweat: Trevor Lawrence might play vs. Saints, but will he struggle?
We trick ourselves into believing that just because a player is on the field, he's over an injury.
Trevor Lawrence might play on Thursday night. That doesn't mean he'll be able to do all the things he needs to do as quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury, and as a result the New Orleans Saints are 1-point home favorites at BetMGM. The line was Saints -3 earlier in the week, then it dropped some when there was more optimism over Lawrence's playing status.
The fact that the Jaguars aren't small favorites — they were 1.5-point favorites in the lookahead line last week, before Lawrence's injury — is probably a hedge on him being inactive and C.J. Beathard starting, but also acknowledging that he might not be fully functional four days after spraining his knee against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Jaguars are probably the better team in this game, but the Saints aren't incapable. Their defense is sixth in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed, seventh in DVOA if you're into advanced stats. The offense has usually moved the ball when Derek Carr looks healthy, though it has had trouble finishing drives.
The Jaguars have won three in a row and at 4-2 they have a chance to open up a big lead in a weak AFC South. But the injury to their quarterback had some unfortunate timing on a short week before a Thursday night road game. Whether Lawrence is active is only half of the story.
Here's the first look at the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Two MLB playoff games
There are not many more day baseball games left this year, but there is one (kind of) on Thursday. The Philadelphia Phillies look to stay hot against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Game 3 of the NLCS starts at 5:07 p.m. ET, a little earlier than normal. The Phillies are -125 favorites after taking the first two games of the series, including an emphatic 10-0 win in Game 2.
The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros start Game 4 of the ALCS at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Astros kept their hopes alive with a Game 3 win. The Rangers are -115 favorites for Game 4. Are the Astros, the defending World Series champs, going to storm all the way back to win the series? Game 4 will be huge in that pursuit. Houston is still +180 to win the series, way down from +450 before Game 3.
A couple college football games
If an NFL game and two MLB playoff games aren't your thing, here are the two college football games with point spreads on Thursday: James Madison is a 3.5-point favorite at Marshall, and Tulsa is a 3-point home favorite over Rice.
NHL has 12 games
On a busy night elsewhere in sports, there are a dozen hockey games. That includes a very interesting matchup between two pretty good Eastern Conference teams, as the Toronto Maple Leafs play at the Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs are -135 favorites, which shows a lot of respect for them early this season.
What's the best bet?
I'll go with the Saints whether Trevor Lawrence plays or not. Maybe Lawrence plays really well through injury, as many elite athletes can do, but it's hard with the short turnaround. I'd also give him a better chance if the Saints weren't good on defense, but they are top 10 in the league on that side of the ball. I'm taking New Orleans.
