The case for bumping up Ian Kennedy's ownership percentage
We can already say with confidence: The 2019 Kansas City Royals aren’t going anywhere. The offense is actually middle of the pack (17th in runs), sparked by four interesting hitters. The pitching staff (27th in ERA) has been a mess. There are a handful of Royals worth rostering, and they’re long gone in any self-respecting league.
Maybe it’s time to add Ian Kennedy to that worthiness list.
Kennedy wasn’t on anyone’s radar entering his age-34 season, coming off a mediocre year in the Royals rotation (4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). But he’s in the bullpen this year, and doing fine work. He’s only allowed two runs over 15.2 innings, and check out those 21 strikeouts against just two walks.
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The asks are different for a relief pitcher, and so far, so good with Kennedy. He’s bumped his fastball velocity into the low 90s, a jump of 1.4 mph. He’s getting more ground balls and limiting hard contact. The ERA estimators generally won’t trust a 1.15 ERA on anyone, but FIP actually gives Kennedy a sub-1 number. And even if you want to regress his homer-less resume, xFIP lands at a digestible 2.59 result.
When an ERA and WHIP don’t match up, I generally trust the WHIP. So perhaps Kennedy’s 1.15 WHIP is the number to follow, not his (coincidentally identical) 1.15 ERA. But when you mix his K/BB rate with his acceptable ratio (partly baked by walk avoidance), good numbers should follow.
There probably won’t be a big-save guy in the Royals bullpen — the team is 11-20, and manager Ned Yost hasn’t settled on one static option. Kennedy recorded a save in the opener of Wednesday’s doubleheader, but it was a working-class save — two innings. He now has two handshakes for the year; three teammates have one each.
But failed starters turn into useful relievers all the time. Heck, it wasn’t that long ago when the Royals turned Wade Davis, mediocre starter, into Wade Davis, knockout closer. No one expects Kennedy to be a star, of course, but his six-percent ownership tag appears light. We all need some quality innings to smooth our ratios, don’t we?
Alex Verdugo gets his chance
If you live in Southern California, you know all about the traffic problems. The Dodgers are mixed up in that, with an outfield that’s often a source of gridlock. But things cleared up nicely over the last 24 hours or so.
Obviously, we don’t wish injury on anyone, especially a star-crossed player like A.J. Pollock. But when he hit the injured list a few days ago, we knew from back history to expect the worst. And now it’s confirmed — Pollock needs exploratory elbow surgery. The team is hopeful his season isn’t over completely, but there’s no timetable for a return.
This opens up a regular spot for Alex Verdugo, who’s unclaimed in three-quarters of Yahoo leagues. Verdugo, 23, has been productive in his 73 at-bats, slashing .342/.368/.616 with four home runs. You’ll usually see him in the second half of the Dodgers lineup, but any real estate here is worth buying. Los Angeles has 175 runs (second in the majors) and an .800 OPS (sixth).
Buying low before Coors Field kicks in
It hasn’t been a banner start for the Colorado offense — the Rockies are just 22nd in runs scored, despite scoring 11 times at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Maybe this sets up a buying opportunity.
Colorado’s schedule has been road heavy to this point — 12 games at Coors, 19 out of a suitcase. And several of the home dates have been played in poor weather. Eventually Mother Nature will heat up, and so should the Rockies. It’s a good time to quietly sniff around and see if anyone in your league is down on a name-brand Colorado hitter.
Maybe this sounds too idealistic for you, but I’ve heard from grumblings from disappointed Charlie Blackmon owners. Nolan Arenado has his lowest OPS+ in six years. An injury kept Daniel Murphy down for a few weeks. Just see what’s out there. If you want to shop in the discount rack, I suspect Ian Desmond would come at a notable discount. Desmond’s downside is clear — no one would be surprised if he lost his full-time job —but he was a useful piece in 2018 (22 homers, 20 steals), despite a mediocre .236 average.
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