Should Texans extend Nico Collins before 2024 season begins?

NFL free agency started over a month ago, and the NFL draft happened last week, leaving fans to wait for rookie minicamp and offseason training activities to start.

Now enters one of the quietest times of the year for fans, but it doesn’t mean teams aren’t working hard behind the scenes to improve their rosters.

The Houston Texans are in a good spot after an extremely active offseason. Houston filled several holes in free agency and through offseason trades, bolstering its roster to compete with the elite teams in the AFC for years to come.

There’s more work to do, and with $23.6 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap, the Texans have plenty of ammunition to secure deals. But what about taking care of one of their own?

Wide receiver Nico Collins is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Because he was not a first-round pick, he cannot receive a fifth-year option.

Houston’s options are either to make him a deal, put him on the franchise tag after the season, or watch him walk in free agency.

Collins had a breakout third season, totaling 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns while becoming quarterback C.J. Stroud’s primary target. The former third-round pick is in line for a cushy new contract that reflects his level of play.

On “The Athletic Football Show“, co-hosts Nate Tice and Robert Mays argued that Houston should look to make a deal sooner rather than later. So what’s the holdup?

Injuries, inadequate quarterback play, and an overall bad environment for a young wide receiver hurt Collins in his first two seasons. The results were 70 catches for 927 yards and three touchdowns across 24 games. 

Houston may want to see another year of production before they hand out wide receiver one money to Collins. The acquisition of former All-Pro Stefon Diggs adds to the target competition, so how Collins plays alongside a fellow upper-echelon wideout may factor into its decision.

However, it’s a dangerous game to wait and see. Around the league, teams are locking up their young receivers, with Indianapolis signing Michael Pittman Jr. to a three-year deal worth $70 million, including a $46 million total guarantee, and Philadelphia inking Devonta Smith to a three-year, $75 million contract.

Neither Pittman nor Smith reached Collins’ level in 2023, though both have been sturdy options in their respective passing games, hence why Tice and Mays argue the Texans should get the deal done now before the asking price expands to top-10 status next offseason. 

“He (Collins) looks like a top-10 guy now, and I would give him Devonta Smith pay, so he plays like A.J. Brown,” Mays said.

Smith’s $25 million annual salary serves as a good benchmark for a potential Collins extension. However, as more time passes, more teams iron out deals. 

The Lions inked Amon-Ra St. Brown to a four-year, $120 million contract – the largest annual average for a receiver until Brown’s three-year, $96 million extension –  on Apr. 24. St. Brown’s contract includes $77 million in guarantees the second most behind Brown’s monster deal which guarantees him $84 million. 

Star receivers like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are awaiting new deals, and both will likely reset the market by this time next offseason. 

The price tag for receivers — more specifically leading targets — only continues to grow. In 2019, Julio Jones’ three-year, $66 million was the largest extension. Today, Jones’ 22 million salary would rank lower than  Diggs’ $22.5 million pay, which currently is the 12th highest-ranked contract among receivers, according to Spotrac. 

While the logic of waiting another year and making Collins prove he’s elite holds some merit, what if he takes another step in Year 4?

In games featuring Tank Dell, Collins posted 50 receptions for 800 yards and five touchdowns. Over 17 games, the average comes out to 85 catches, 1,360 yards, and eight touchdowns. 

Diggs’ arrival only takes more attention off of Collins. An improved run game and better health along the offensive line bodes well for the offense as a whole and for Collins to raise his efficiency level, which was top five in nearly every metric last season.

Pro Football Focus graded him as the fifth-best receiver last year, and he finished top in yards after catch per reception and yards per route run. 

Texans general manager Nick Caserio hasn’t been keen on giving lucrative contracts. In three years, the largest contract he’s dished out was to All-Pro Laremy Tunsil worth $75 million over three years. 

It would make sense for Collins’ deal to be in a similar range. A three-year extension would come off the books right as Stroud enters his sixth season, which, if the Texans use the fifth-year option, would be the first year of his perceived monster deal. 

Nobody expected Collins to be a number one option heading into last season, but now it’s clear he can be for years.

The clock is ticking for Caserio and company to complete a deal. 

Story originally appeared on Texans Wire