How the Texans can attack projected MVP Lamar Jackson

There’s no such thing as an easy NFL divisional playoff game.

Any time a team makes it to this point in the season, with the best remaining eight squads, everyone is solid. The Houston Texans have known this all too well. This is just the fifth time in franchise history they’ve advanced to the AFC divisional round, and they’ve never won to make it to the AFC Championship Game, suffering losses to the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens over the last decade.

This one shapes up to be particularly challenging as, for all the greatness of their own quarterback in rookie C.J. Stroud, they’ll face projected league MVP in Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

Jackson, the winner of the 2019 NFL MVP award and this year’s anticipated winner, has surged under first year offensive coordinator Todd Monken. He threw for 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing for 821 yards and five touchdowns. His revamped offense, with receivers Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, was one of the most dynamic in the league and, paired with a top tier defense, the Ravens cruised to a 13-4 record.

That included a decisive 25-9 victory over the Texans in Week 1. Houston’s defense did their job, allowing Jackson only 169 passing yards and forcing an interception, but their offensive deficiencies couldn’t be overcome. Since then, Baltimore’s offense certainly has improved and so has Houston’s defense, which has jelled under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

This begs the question of how they can repeat their Week 1 performance against Jackson? It likely starts up front.

Houston had 16 quarterback pressures and four sacks in Week 1. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke on Wednesday spoke about how everything starts with the discipline and effectiveness of the defensive line.

“It’s going to be sort of like we’ve preached all year, but even at a heightened level of rushing as a unit. We can’t have independent contractors out there. It’s definitely going to be about guys staying in their rush areas,” Burke said of his unit needing to work cohesively. “If you get out of your area and out of your lane, and kind of where we’re trying to put it all together, if you get out, then he’s going to make you pay. So, I would probably say just from a discipline – a rush discipline level – this is the ultimate [challenge] this week, for sure.”

Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard, despite fighting their own injuries this week, will need to be at their best in this game. Their ability to generate pressure one on one and be used creatively on stunts generates an enormous amount of stress on the offensive line when paired with defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins. The odds are that Jackson can fry any defense if he’s given too much time, whether with his legs or his arm.

Another way generate pressure is to give the defensive line more time, or simply cover up passing outlets. Houston’s defensive back group is coming off one of their best performances of the season against Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco. Burke had more to say on the coverage component of covering Baltimore.

“Part of that preaching, even in coverage, there’s no clock on the coverage,” he said. “It’s – you have to defend the second play. We had him a couple of times where we kind of felt like we had him in the grass, and then he breaks out, and then he makes a play downfield. Hopefully not for that many yards, but it is a mental battle too, of like, we’ve got to keep coming, we’ve got to keep coming.”

Burke further discussed the tough task of stopping Jackson.

“You’ve got to throw waves at them,” he said. “He’s going to make some plays, right? There’s a reason he’s in the MVP conversation. He’s had a great season and he’s a great player, so we understand that there’s going to be plays that are made out there. It’s definitely going to be part of our mindset of, ‘Hey, next play – back up.’ We have a plan of how we want to approach it and we’ve got to stick with it.”

Don’t be surprised to see more varied coverage looks against the Ravens and further utilization of the special, emerging talent that is second-year cornerback Derek Stingley. Stingley was able to shut down Amari Cooper last week and will likely see a heavy load of Baltimore leading receiver Zay Flowers, the only player to gather over 100 targets from Jackson this season. That could be difficult with Flowers’ usage in the slot, but nevertheless it won’t be a surprise if they try.

Like last week, cornerbacks Steven Nelson and Desmond King will be tasked to cover secondary playmakers. Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the better No. 2 receivers in the league right now but won’t represent an overwhelming physical matchup for Nelson, whose outstanding year culminated in a pick-six last week.

Linebackers Christian Harris and Blake Cashman will have to work in tandem with the safety group to stall former All-Pro Mark Andrews, if he’s able to suit up for the game. Not dissimilar from David Njoku the week prior, this may be an area of the field they’re happy to force Jackson to work towards.

All together, stout coverage on the back end with a good performance from the pass rushers should be enough to get consistent pressure on Jackson and hopefully sacks. However, pressure isn’t enough against the NFL MVP. Jackson was the league’s best passer against pressure this season.

How do you bring down a quarterback that’s so elusive? Additional help never hurts.

Ryans has rarely blitzed six or more this season, but when he has it’s been effective. They have the second highest pressure rate on opposing quarterback and have forced the fifth best passer rating in the NFL at 69.7. It’s culminated in two interceptions and just two touchdowns allowed despite a relatively low success rate (21st).

The last time they played, Houston wasn’t afraid to send the house at Jackson as they blitzed him five times, one of just four games this season at that volume, and were able to force a turnover on the play.

Jackson goes from the league’s best passer, or at least a top passer, to extremely average against heavy blitz looks. He ranked 29th of 42 eligible passers in EPA/db and 36th in passer rating against such blitzes this year. The man coverages looks that they come with and relative overloading of defensive bodies also mean that it’s difficult for the MVP to use his legs.

Jackson’s EPA/db significantly decreases when forced to play against man coverage, likely for this very reason. He’s only scrambled on 10.5% of man dropbacks compared to 14.5% when facing zone. In this way, Ryans could gamble against Jackson as a pure drop back passer in the right situations and eliminate the chaotic element of his running.

It won’t be an every-down flavor for Houston, they’re a team that likes to win by rushing 4 and that’s their philosophy. However, expect them to dial up 5-10 plays where they work to heat up Jackson and force the kind of high variance decision making that can swing plays.

If everyone can play their assignments on downs and Ryans can dial up his signature magic at just the right time, Houston may be able to slow down the league MVP. Fans can wait and see what the defensive staff on Kirby Drive comes up with on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. CT.

Story originally appeared on Texans Wire