Tale of the tape, predictions: Who has the edge when Notre Dame football visits Louisville?

SOUTH BEND — Notre Dame football has reached the halfway point of its season with a 5-1 record.

After cruising through its first four games, the No. 10 Fighting Irish have played back-to-back thrillers, losing to Ohio State, 17-14, two weeks ago and defeating Duke, 21-14, last week. Both games have featured touchdowns in the final 35 seconds of the game to give the winning team the victory.

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The Irish get a third-straight ranked opponent this week when they travel to Louisville to face the 25th-ranked Cardinals (7:30 p.m., ABC). It’s also another undefeated opponent for Notre Dame, as Louisville enters with a 5-0 record. All-but one of the Irish’s opponents this year has been unbeaten when they’ve faced them.

Here is the tale of the tape and predictions for Saturday night’s contest at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium:

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When Notre Dame has the football

The Irish offense hasn’t been as efficient the past two weeks against better competition. After averaging 46 points scored in its first four games, Notre Dame has combined to score 35 against Ohio State and Duke.

Even with the struggles, Irish quarterback Sam Hartman has stayed mistake-free, now throwing 145 passes without an interception. It’s the longest streak to start a season in Notre Dame history and fourth all time for the program, with Ian Book’s 266-staight passes without an interception in 2020 being the high mark.

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Hartman has found a new favorite target the past two weeks in tight end Mitchell Evans. The junior has 209 of his 272 receiving yards the last two games, including six catches for 134 yards against Duke. Evans’ production has been crucial, as long-term injuries to wide receivers Deion Colzie and Matt Salerno, as well as not having Jaden Greathouse and Jayden Thomas last week, has limited the passing options for Hartman.

The Cardinals defense ranks 38th out of 133 teams in yards allowed per game at 327.8. They have one of the best pass rushers in the country in junior Ashton Gillotte, who’s five sacks are tied for fifth best amongst FBS players. He could be a problem for a Notre Dame offense that struggled against Duke’s pressure last week.

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While Notre Dame has had issues scoring the last two weeks, its depth and variety of options on offense will provide fits for Louisville.

Edge: Notre Dame

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When Louisville has the football

This will be the third-straight year Notre Dame faces Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer, but the first as a Cardinal. In 2021 Plummer played for Purdue and last year he started for California. Plummer reunited at Louisville with former Boilers head coach Jeff Brohm.

Plummer has posted solid 2023 numbers, throwing for 1,406 yards, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. His favorite target is Jamari Thrash, who has 22 receptions for 444 yards and five touchdowns. Junior Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and sophomore Chris Bell also have double-digit receptions in 13 and 10, respectively.

Louisville has relied on Jawhar Jordan for most of the ball carrying duties, with the junior at 510 rushing yards and six touchdowns. His 66 attempts are 35 more than the next closest running back.

With an elite cornerback in Benjamin Morrison likely drawing the assignment of guarding Thrash, running the ball might be Louisville’s best chance at winning. The Irish allow an average of 124.2 yards a game on the ground, which ranks 52nd in the country. This will be the Cardinals’ toughest defense they’ve faced so far.

Edge: Notre Dame

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Special teams

Notre Dame has strong-legged kickers in Spencer Shrader and Bryce McPherson. Shrader has produced a touchback on 64% of his kickoff attempts, while McPherson is 18th in the country with a 45 yard-per-punt average.

For the Cardinals, Brock Travelstead handles all kicking duties. While he’s been efficient in field goals, extra points and kickoffs, he has struggled with punting, ranking in the bottom 10 of qualified players with an average of 38.2 yards/punt.

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Neither team has produced much in the return game, so punting becomes the difference here.

Edge: Notre Dame

Coaching

The Notre Dame coaching staff has been tested the past two weeks. After faltering against Ohio State, they were able to gain some momentum back with the win over Duke.

Brohm is back at his alma mater, playing quarterback for the Cardinals from 1990-93. After two-straight double-digit win seasons at Western Kentucky, Brohm took over at Purdue, going 36-34 in six season with the Boilermakers. He won the Big Ten West division in his final season last year, helping Purdue earn a Citrus Bowl invite before taking the Louisville gig.

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Brohm has pulled off some primetime upsets in the past, notably in 2018 when the Boilers knocked off No. 2 Ohio State, 49-20. They also had wins over No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State in 2021.

Both coaching staffs know what it takes to win a big game. Given the Irish have done this two-straight weeks now, they earn the slight edge Saturday night.

Edge: Notre Dame

South Bend Tribune staff predictions for Game 7 vs. Louisville

TOM NOIE: No. 10 Notre Dame 31, No. 25 Louisville 13: This is a get in, get out and get on to USC situation for the Irish, who ran a gamut of emotions the previous two games. They won't in this one.

MIKE BERARDINO: No. 10 Notre Dame 28, No. 25 Louisville 17: Notre Dame keeps the good vibes rolling with a three-peat against well-traveled QB Jack Plummer.

MICHAEL WANBAUGH: No. 10 Notre Dame 31, No. 25 Louisville 20: Cardinals are averaging 37 points per game, but struggled against a good N.C. State defense. The Irish 'D' is holding opponents to more than 18 points below scoring average.

AUSTIN HOUGH: No. 10 Notre Dame 34, No. 25 Louisville 17: It’s been a nice start to the season Louisville, but they haven’t faced a test like Notre Dame yet. The Irish get the win and get ready for a mega showdown with USC next week.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Tale of the tape, predictions for Notre Dame football vs Louisville