Swing Games: Looking at Texas wins needed to secure a 10-win season
We have talked about it all offseason: Texas needs 10 wins in 2023. The path there is more simple than people make of it, but it won’t be handed to the Longhorns. The coaching staff will need to make a concerted effort to know what games it can win and attack those games with 100% effort.
Certain games matter more. The Kansas State and Oklahoma games are going to matter because both teams can easily pull ahead of the Longhorns in the standings. Oklahoma’s schedule is such that a win over Texas could grant it two free losses to reach the conference title game. K-State has already proven it can win the Big 12 without beating Texas.
In regard to winning 10 regular season games, the Alabama and Baylor games are going to be more important than the others because of the timing. Texas can’t lose one of the first four games. They haven’t proven they could recover from early losses with several strong performances since 2018.
Many buy into the coach-speak that assumes teams treat every opponent the same. Coaches may say that they do, but that approach is impractical if you want to win a conference championship.
If Texas prepares for Rice as hard as it does for Alabama it will lose in Tuscaloosa. If Texas prepares for Wyoming as hard as it does for Baylor it will lose in Waco. Those teams are going to give the Longhorns their very best and actually have the firepower to beat Texas. You have to prioritize those games.
With the above in mind, here are the games Texas needs to prioritize to secure a 10-2 record or better in 2023.
at Alabama
The game is monumental. For starters, a win probably doubles the chances that the Longhorns win 10 games. In addition, there are matchups that Texas can exploit. A loss here lowers the margin for error significantly. It’s hard to picture the team starting 1-1 and then winning nine of ten games. It would have to get that done against teams that mostly have strong animus against the ‘Horns. Texas can have no more big game moral victories. You had all offseason to prepare for it. Alabama is a must-win game.
at Baylor
Would it be a bad idea for coaches to limit Wyoming prep and focus on beating Baylor after the Alabama game? I am open to that approach. In fact, if Baylor was the first big game on the schedule, the Longhorns should have prepared all offseason for it. That distinction is rightly given to Alabama.
Though the players will have to play the game, looking past Wyoming should not be a concern. Frankly, if Texas is capable of losing to Wyoming this season, it simply isn’t going to win the Big 12. Certainly, it won’t be a 10-win team. The Longhorns cannot afford to lose to the Bears. The Baylor crowd is going to bring the energy for their team. A win and a 4-0 start means Texas probably wins 10 games in my estimation.
Kansas
You may have recently spotted our final game-by-game predictions for 2023. You might have also seen the prediction of Texas defeating Kansas, 63-24. That doesn’t happen if the Longhorns don’t approach this game soberly. After losing to the Jayhawks in 2021, Kansas should have the full attention of Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns need to blow out Lance Leipold’s team again.
Oklahoma
Syndication The Oklahoman
We don’t need to tell Sarkisian of the importance of this game. Unlike some coaches in the rivalry, Sark knows how significant Red River is to his program. While he knows the magnitude of the matchup, there will be an increase in the level of difficulty. Oklahoma is a much improved roster in 2023 despite some potential weak points on the second string and a clear weakness at cornerback. Texas needs to prepare as if Lincoln Riley was still the Oklahoma Sooners head coach. If it does, the Longhorns should win by two scores.
Kansas State
In another game I have the Longhorns winning by double digits, Texas needs to prepare as if it is the underdog. A win over Kansas State is an opportunity to send a message to the rest of the conference. It would signal that the league is under new management on the football field this season. The Wildcats are going to be physical but Texas can out-speed and outsmart the K-State defense like it did last season. It resulted in the game being won at halftime. Should the Longhorns win the above five games they will likely finish 10-2 or better.
