Surprise! First-place Guardians make experts look foolish | Jeff Schudel
Aug. 11—Here is some free advice from an old guy: Don't mow your lawn at night. Don't leave your car windows down when it's raining and never, ever trust baseball experts employed by major websites for stock-market advice.
After games played Aug. 10, the Guardians were 58-52 and alone in first place in the American League Central Division, one game ahead of the Minnesota Twins and 2.5 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox with eight weeks and 52 games remaining in the regular season. They beat the Tigers, 3-2, on Aug. 10 for their fourth straight victory. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games.
No one outside the Guardians organization saw this happening.
The Sporting News, in its preseason prediction of how division races would unfold, had the White Sox winning the AL Central with a 94-68 record. It had the Guardians finishing last at 67-95. The White Sox would have to go 38-13 and the Guardians would have to finish 9-43 for those predictions to come true.
ESPN was kinder in predicting a 77-85 finish for Terry Francona's crew, but the sports giant gave the Guardians just a 15 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Bleacher Report chastised the Guardians for being quiet in the 2022 offseason (which they were) in predicting a last-place 71-91 finish in the division.
"Cleveland could not afford to be this quiet and expect improvement," Bleacher Report wrote. "The betting line (an over-under of 76.5 wins) is kind in its assessment of a regression for the Guardians."
The Guardians only move in the offseason was signing backup catcher Luke Maile. They were even quieter at the trade deadline when all they did was ship catcher Sandy Leon for left-handed minor league pitcher Ian Hamilton.
But here they are, against all odds, leading their division, taking their cue from Francona and following the example set by Jose Ramirez. If one of the best players in all of baseball never stops hustling, then each of his teammates knows he better play the same way.
"We did have a subset and a target of players (in free agency) — and more often than not, they didn't end up here," Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said in spring training. "On that level, it can be disappointing, but it doesn't take away from my excitement with the group we have."
That group of young players starts with leadoff hitter Steven Kwan. The rookie left fielder is hitting .300. Second baseman Andres Gimenez is in his third big-league season, but he is only 23 years old. Gimenez is hitting a robust .304 with 12 home runs and 50 RBI.
Oscar Gonzalez has 14 doubles, three home runs, 18 RBI and a .297 batting average in 39 games. Nolan Jones, a second-round draft pick by the Indians in 2016, is finally getting his chance. He is hitting .257 with five doubles, two home runs and 13 RBI in 24 games.
Will Benson, picked in the first round of the same draft that produced Jones, made his major-league on Aug. 1. He drove in a run with his first hit with the Guardians and scored to help the Guardians beat the Tigers on Aug. 10.
Kwan, Gonzalez, Jones and Benson are all new to the team that finished 80-82 last year. Kwan, Gonzalez and Jones have contributed to the surprising success. Now Benson is getting his chance.
Shortstop Amed Rosario's name was floated as a commodity the Guards would offer for a relief pitcher as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approached. It didn't happen, and the Guardians are better for it. Kwan hitting first and Rosario second gets the train rolling. No one plays with more grit than Josh Naylor.
In other words, the Guardians' success truly is total team effort.
"Often times, we came back to really believing in individuals we have in the clubhouse and the contributions they've made," Antonetti said in explaining why he didn't make a major trade at the deadline. "As importantly, the way this group has come together in a team dynamic — the way they play the game, the way they care for each other — we wanted to be really mindful not to disrupt that."
And now Shane Bieber (7-6) is pitching like the Bieber of 2020 when he won the Cy Young Award. He has won three straight and four of his last five starts. He has a 3.21 ERA, and the Guardians are 14-7 when he pitches.
Triston McKenzie (8-8) has been dominant as a starter at times. He blanked the mighty Houston Astros through eight innings on Aug. 7. Cal Quantrill is 8-5.
The Guardians are not invincible, to be sure. Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale have under-performed as starters. But every time it seems this team is sliding backward, it reverses direction, as it did last weekend when Quantrill and McKenzie helped salvage a four-game split with the Astros.
If the Guardians continue to outlast the Twins and White Sox, or slide into the American League playoffs as a wild-card team, they will do so with one of the best back ends of any bullpen in the majors.
Emmanuel Clase, who struck out the side in the ninth inning of the All-Star game last month to earn the save, is tied for third in all of baseball with 26 saves. James Karinchak, activated on July 3 after spending the first three months on the shelf with a shoulder injury, is back to being his cocky, confident self as the eighth-inning setup man.
Cleveland's baseball team isn't the Indians anymore. But it's in first place, and that's all that matters.
