There’s a lot to like about the Philadelphia Eagles. They rank third in offensive and defensive DVOA, their ground game leads the NFL in rushing EPA and success rate, their defense tops the league in dropback EPA and success rate, and head coach Nick Sirianni’s devotion to analytics ensures the Eagles a natural advantage in most matchups.
All that being said, it’s still a bit surprising how fervently bettors are dashing to the metaphorical window to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Sixty-eight percent of the spread handle at BetMGM is on Philly, and the action appears to be snowballing. Less than a week after a bettor placed $1 million on the Eagles moneyline (-125) to win $800,000, another seven-figure bet has landed. The $1.25 million wager will pay out a cool mil if Philadelphia wins the Super Bowl.
Chief concern for sportsbooks
Out of all the states where bettors can place a wager online with BetMGM, Kansas is the only one where the Chiefs are drawing more bets than the Eagles. A Kansas City loss would be brutal for the sportsbook, but there are scenarios in which they would really get crushed. The worst outcome includes Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce scoring the game’s first touchdown (+650) to cash the two most popular prop bets at BetMGM (a Kelce anytime touchdown is the second-most popular prop), and then the Eagles winning 37-34, thanks to a photoshopped image that has some bettors believing the Super Bowl “script” leaked.
If the universe feels like rubbing some salt in the wound, a good way to doing that is for yellow/green Gatorade to get poured out in celebration of a Philly victory. Just under 40% of all money wagered on the Gatorade bath is expecting a Lemon Lime shower, which opened at +350 but has been bet down to +175.
At least the sportsbook will be picking up some easy money to help subsidize any losses. One bettor wagered $2,500 to win $625,000 that the Chiefs and Eagles will enter halftime entangled in a scoreless draw. The two teams led the NFL in scoring this year.
Stats provided by Football Outsiders and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).