Stock Up, Stock Down: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry big winners after free agency

A lot has changed now that we are through the first week of free agency and many moves have been made that will affect the fantasy football landscape. D’Andre Swift signed with the Bears in what now looks like a formidable offense. Devin Singletary (Giants) and Austin Ekeler (Commanders) both are setting up shop in the NFC East, but I don’t expect either to blow us away in 2024. One solid move I like is Josh Jacobs to the Packers as he will be the lead back in an ascending offense, but there are other running back moves I like better that we’ll talk about below. I wanted to focus more on guys who are on new teams, so Zamir White, Jacobs’ former teammate who is a winner right now in free agency, won’t be listed below. We know what fire power Keenan Allen will add to the Bears’ offense paired with D.J. Moore, but who will the quarterback be? We think we know, right? What I do know is whose stock is up and who’s stock is down, let’s get it.

STOCK UP

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles

For Giants fans, their beloved former running back has made a deal with the devil, but the man had to do what was best for himself. For us, it’s an exciting time to see how the former No. 2 overall pick can flourish with a much more functional team, offense and quarterback. In 2023, D’Andre Swift turned his time (and career year) with the Eagles into a three-year $24 million dollar deal with the Bears. Barkley will have much more opportunities to score with players like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith around him. He’ll concede some goal line touchdowns to the “tush push”, but if he remains healthy, bank on Barkley getting back to top-five fantasy running back form.

Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens

People will point to Henry’s age (like they’ve been doing for the past three seasons) to keep waiting for his downfall. The reality is, on a points-per-game basis he outscored the likes of Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift in fantasy. Only Christian McCaffrey had more rushing yards than Henry in 2023. Then, to top it all off, he did this on a Titans team with average quarterback play and a rebuilding offensive line, while conceding touches to Tyjae Spears. He now enters a Ravens offense that is one of the best in the NFL and just gift wrapped Gus Edwards 13 rushing touchdowns in 2023. It won’t be far-fetched to see Henry surpass his stat line of 280-1,167-12 from a year ago.

Joe Mixon, RB, Texans

Leaving an offense led by Joe Burrow seems pretty bad until you fall into the lap of a unit headed by C.J. Stroud. The Texans got the most out of Devin Singletary last season as he was RB16 from Week 10 on after he got the starting job. Mixon was RB3 in that same span and brings an upgrade to Houston. Dameon Pierce underwhelmed last season and that is the best option behind Mixon right now. As the lead back in an explosive offense, Mixon figures to be a top-15 fantasy back, at worst.

Gus Edwards, RB, Chargers

Edwards ran for a career-high 810 yards and 13 touchdowns last season (RB34 in fantasy) and (for) now finds himself as the lead back, lining up behind Justin Herbert. I believe the Chargers will add a back in the NFL draft and don’t count out Isaiah Spiller, but as of today, the Gus Bus will roll in Los Angeles. With Jim Harbaugh now the head coach and the masses expecting them to run the ball, expect Edwards to keep his short yardage/goal line role, which brings great fantasy value.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers

“Oh no! Johnson is on that weak Panthers offense now!” However, it as an offense which saw 33-year old Adam Thielen reach his first 1,000 yard season since 2018. Bryce Young took his bumps and bruises in a major way as a rookie, but he locked in on Thielen as his trusted possession receiver to the point where he was WR10 (on a points per game basis) through the first 11 weeks of fantasy. Johnson will present Young with a much better option with additional speed and explosiveness.

STOCK DOWN

Calvin Ridley/DeAndre Hopkins, WRs, Titans

One person I like this for is Will Levis, but because I don’t believe the passing volume will be there, I can’t see how we are looking at two 1,200-yard receivers. This is what you call a good problem to have in “real football”, but trusting Ridley and/or Hopkins weekly in your fantasy lineups (especially after their up-and-down 2023 seasons) is too risky. The Titans are banking on Levis to progress in a major way and they’re doing everything to make sure that’s possible. New head coach Brian Callahan will call plays and run an offense similar to the Bengals, but can they match the production?

Gabe Davis, WR, Jaguars

It never truly worked out in Buffalo like he or the Bills would’ve liked as Davis could never move into the upper echelon of WR2’s. He’ll now be packed into a receiver room with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Parker Washington and Devin Duvernay. His contract (three years, $39 million) suggests he’s the Jags' WR2, but that remains to be seen. Going from Josh Allen to Trevor Lawrence doesn’t help his case either as Davis saw plenty of deep ball targets from his former quarterback. There hasn’t been a day that Davis has been in the NFL that I’ve ever drafted him on any of my fantasy teams.

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans

While Pollard was being hyped up as the next Emmitt Smith all of summer 2023, I was drafting Breece Hall rounds later. Pollard finished as RB23 last season as the Cowboys’ workhorse back and now finds himself in competition with Tyjae Spears, who showed promise as a rookie, especially in the receiving game. With both backs having different skill sets, I fully expect this to be a committee/hot hand approach. Pollard may get the first crack at the starting gig, but history has shown us that he’s at his best when splitting touches.

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings

Jones lands in Minnesota after refusing to take a pay cut with the Packers. The good thing for Jones is that down the stretch and into last season's playoffs, he showed that he’s still one of the more dynamic and explosive backs in the NFL. The biggest issues for him are the presence of Ty Chandler and the potential of a rookie starting quarterback not named Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels. The offense could come to shape, but right now there are some question marks around it.

Justin Fields, QB, Steelers

This one is pretty simple. After Fields was traded to Pittsburgh and notified that he’d back up Russell Wilson, his fantasy value took a hit (for now). Had Fields been able to get a chance with the new-look Bears’ offense, he would have been a top-five fantasy quarterback for me. Something tells me we’ll see him start some games in 2024 and I’d even draft him with one of my last picks, but that unknown makes him irrelevant in fantasy football as of today (unless we are talking dynasty).