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Stetson basketball vs UConn in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament opener

ryan pritt and chris boyle, daytona beach news-journal
·3 min read

Stetson drew the most difficult test imaginable for its NCAA men's basketball tournament debut: a showdown with the top overall seed, defending national champion Connecticut, in the Big East's backyard.

The 16th-seeded Hatters (22-12) will head to Brooklyn, New York, on Friday to meet the No. 1 Huskies at Barclays Center. Stetson automatically qualified as part of the 68-team field last Sunday after defeating Austin Peay 94-91 for the ASUN title.

UConn ran the gauntlet last year as a No. 4 seed, defeating Iona, Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Miami and San Diego State in dominant fashion to claim its fifth national championship in program history. The Huskies (31-3) built an impressive résumé with 13 Quad 1 victories and a sweep of both the Big East regular season and postseason tournament championships.

March Madness: Stetson AD Jeff Altier checks final box with NCAA basketball tournament bid

Stetson, by contrast, finished the year 209th in the NET rankings, registering one Quad 1 win (UCF) in three tries. The Hatters will look to become the third No. 16 seed to topple a No. 1, a feat previously accomplished by Maryland-Baltimore County (2018, Virginia) and Fairleigh Dickinson (2023, Purdue).

Here is a quick scouting report on the top-ranked team in the field, the UConn Huskies.

Dan Hurley has restored UConn's winning tradition

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts to an official’s call in the first half of the NCAA Big East Conference Tournament second round game between the Connecticut Huskies and the Xavier Musketeers at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Thursday, March 14, 2024.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts to an official’s call in the first half of the NCAA Big East Conference Tournament second round game between the Connecticut Huskies and the Xavier Musketeers at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Thursday, March 14, 2024.

Hired on March, 22, 2018, Dan Hurley has guided UConn back to the college basketball's elite after the team posted consecutive losing seasons at the end of Kevin Ollie's tenure. Hurley has a career coaching record 286-183 (.637 winning percentage), including prior stops at Wagner and Rhode Island, where he guided the Rams to the NCAAs on two occasions.

UConn appears in the Big Dance for the fourth year running, though the first two trips resulted in first-round exits. Last year, however, the Huskies strung together one of the most impressive runs in the event's history.

They became just the fifth team since the bracket expanded in 1985 to win all six games by double figures. And they appear to be rounding into form at the right time once again, with seven straight victories overall — by an average margin of 19 points per game.

Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban bring championship experience

Apr 3, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) cuts down a piece of the net after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 3, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) cuts down a piece of the net after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Two starters remain from UConn's title-winning squad, including leading scorer Tristen Newton, who posted a double-double (19 points, 10 rebounds) in last year's final against San Diego State. Newton, a 6-foot-5, 195-pound grad student, averages 15.2 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game.

Five Huskies score in double figures on a nightly basis: Newton, Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle. Karaban, the second returning starter, contributes 13.9 points and five rebounds per game.

UConn is tied for 23rd nationally in scoring (81.5 ppg), 15th in scoring defense (64.4 ppg) and second in scoring margin (17.1 ppg). The Huskies lead the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.88), are ninth in effective field goal percentage (.571), 10th in blocks (5.4 per game) and 34th in three-point shooting (36.69%).

First all-time men's basketball meeting between Stetson, UConn

UConn guard Hassan Diarra (10) reacts after scoring a 3-point basket against St. John's during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the Big East men's tournament Friday, March 15, 2024, in New York. UConn won 95-90. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer) ORG XMIT: MSG515
UConn guard Hassan Diarra (10) reacts after scoring a 3-point basket against St. John's during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the Big East men's tournament Friday, March 15, 2024, in New York. UConn won 95-90. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer) ORG XMIT: MSG515

Digging deep into the Stetson archives, this will be the first meeting between the Hatters and the Huskies.

Bracket predictions from ESPN and CBS Sports had Stetson involved in a handful of scenarios after it punched its ticket last weekend. Upset tournament winners Wagner (Northeast Conference) and Montana State (Big Sky) bumped the Hatters out of the First Four pairings in Dayton, Ohio.

Had Houston won the Big 12 tournament Saturday night, it could have set up a rare rematch. Stetson traveled to meet the Cougars in November and lost 79-48 in just its third contest of the season. Houston will instead meet Big South champion Longwood in Memphis, Tennessee.

Staff predictions

Chris Boyle (@ChrisBoyleDBNJ): UConn 84, Stetson 59.

Ryan Pritt (@RPritt): UConn 91, Stetson 61.

Chris Vinel (@ChrisAVinel): UConn 79, Stetson 62.

Ken Willis (@HeyWillieNJ): UConn 82, Stetson 67.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Stetson vs. UConn prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in