Sophomore wide receivers who could — or won't — provide value in fantasy playoffs
By Neil Dutton, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports
Kenny Golladay has arrived.
After demonstrating high efficiency and delivering splash plays in the face of huge volume, Golladay vanquished all doubts in his ascendance to the pantheon of true NFL alpha receivers. The heir to Calvin Johnson’s X-receiver throne in Detroit has arrived.
After consecutive underwhelming draft classes in 2015 and 2016, fantasy gamers are eager for a good sophomore wide receiver breakout story. With this in mind, let’s check in on the growth and development of Golladay’s WR contemporaries. The following wide receivers were selected in the first three rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft. There may be only one Kenny Golladay, but perhaps one of his draft mates will provide fantasy football teams with a boost down the stretch.
Round 1 Receivers
Corey Davis (Pick No. 5)
Corey Davis is currently No. 2 among wide receivers with a 29.3% Target Share. He’s also seeing a 34.2% share of the Titans red zone targets (No. 8 among wide receivers) and 44.4% of their targets in the end zone (No. 9). Despite these opportunities, he is averaging a mere 11.8 fantasy points per game.
Tennessee’s anemic offense is the greatest problem. The Titans rank No. 31 in pass plays per game, and the 80 targets Davis has seen is actually the 15th most at the position. The Titans have a middling schedule from here on out, and his volume ensures he should be in your lineups on a weekly basis. But anything above WR3 numbers are a bonus in any given week. Of course, even these lowly heights will come down if Marcus Mariota is missing for any length of time.
Mike Williams (No. 7!)
Is there a greater indictment of a former top-10 pick than a failure to usurp the undrafted Tyrell Williams as the Chargers No. 2 wide receiver? Williams has played a mere 60.9% of the Chargers snaps this season, while seeing only 35 targets (an 11.2% share). These targets have garnered 20 receptions, five of which Williams has turned into touchdowns, but PlayerProfiler’s Expected Touchdowns metric places him closer to two scores. If he doesn’t score touchdowns, he is virtually worthless in fantasy given his present level of opportunity. While I hate to use the term bust at this point, he is a non-factor in fantasy for 2018.
John Ross (No. 9)
John Ross came into the NFL as a highly-regarded speed merchant, but sadly it looks like these skills do not carry a guarantee of superstardom at the highest level. Ross has only played ten games and has not caught more than three passes in any of them. He has surpassed 39 yards once. He has been on the field a lot more in the last two games in the absence of A.J. Green, playing on 83.7% and 92.7% of Bengals snaps. He has scored touchdowns in both matches, too. But he has converted his 13 targets in those games into a mere four receptions for 66 yards. With Green likely to return this week, Ross should revert back to being an afterthought in the Bengals offense. You don’t need to be thinking about playing him again in 2018.
Round 2 Receivers
Zay Jones (No. 37)
Zay Jones has recovered from a disastrous rookie campaign and looks like a competent NFL wide receiver in 2018. He’s just not a very exciting one, with a distinctly ordinary 10.6 yards per reception and 6.6 yards per target.
Jones currently plays on one of the worst offenses in football, but his 18.8% Target Share and 38.5% Red Zone Target Share should put him the fantasy radar. Is it a coincidence that Jones set a career high with 11 targets in Matt Barkley’s first start in Buffalo? As long as Barkley is taking snaps, this smoldering breakout is worth watching.
Curtis Samuel (No. 40)
Curtis Samuel has made some small noise in 2018, even finishing as the WR10 in Week 9. But he plays on so few snaps and runs so few routes (no more than 12 in any game this season) that he cannot be counted on for anything beyond a few fluky touchdowns. Samuel’s 1.07 fantasy points per pass route (No. 1) suggests he is a rotational field stretcher who is best deployed in best ball formats, not traditional fantasy football leagues.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (No. 62)
It’s beginning to look like the Pittsburgh Steelers got the steal of this group when they used the No. 30 pick in the second round on Smith-Schuster. He broke out as a 21-year old rookie and has become a weekly must-start in fantasy football. The Steelers average 43.3 passing plays a game, number three in the NFL, and Smith-Schuster currently commands 22.6% of the Steelers targets. His 18.4% Hog Rate ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers, and suggests his usage would skyrocket if he ever escaped the shadow of target monster Antonio Brown. Smith-Schuster’s volume keeps him in the WR2 frame despite a far from easy schedule for the rest of the season. He has seven top 24 outings in his ten games this season.
Round 3 Receivers
Cooper Kupp (No. 69)
Ouch.
Taywan Taylor (No. 72)
Just as low pass volume is throttling Corey Davis this season, low usage crippled Taywan Taylor in 2018. Taylor was a highly thought of breakout candidate coming into 2018, but he has seen a mere 30 targets whilst commanding a 13.6% target share this season, however his underwhelming 5.8 fantasy points per game ranks No. 98 among wide receivers. With Mariota, maybe next year, Taywan.
ArDarius Stewart (No. 79)
Toto, we’re not in Alabama anymore.
Carlos Henderson (No. 82)
AWOL.
Chris Godwin (No. 84)
The Buccaneers are the most pass-oriented team in the NFL, evidenced by the team’s 43.8 pass plays per game. Chris Godwin is restricted to a sub-60% snap share despite impressive efficiency whenever called upon. He has caught 70.2% of his targets this season, with a 60% Contested Catch Rate (No. 8). Yet despite his ability to catch a good chunk of balls sent his way, the Buccaneers limit him to a mere 5.7 targets per game.
Godwin merits weekly flex consideration in his current role, but his upside is Golladay-level. Should an injury or demotion befall either Mike Evans or Desean Jackson, Godwin has demonstrated the ability to be efficient in the face of massive volume when called upon. That could translate a starting role on an aggressive offense into top-20 fantasy WR production.
Kenny Golladay (No. 96)
!!!JACKPOT!!!
Chad Williams (No. 98)
Who?
Amara Darboh (No. 106)
D’oh!
Summary
The NFL sophomore wide receiver position is in good hands with JuJu Smith Schuster and Kenny Golladay. Of the other day 1-2 picks in the 2017 NFL Draft, Chris Godwin is best-positioned to be the NFL’s next sophomore breakout sensation.
