Smart money is on Washington to cover the spread against the Steelers on Monday
Washington may not have a great chance to pull off the upset this week against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, but some smart sports bettors around the nation have shown some interest in their chances to keep this game close. Look no further than the fact that the spread, which opened at Washington +10.5, has moved all the way down to Washington +7, according to BetMGM.
That means that people have been betting on Washington plus the points, and sportsbooks are lowering the number in order to mitigate their risk.
So why is there so much confidence that Ron Rivera and his team can keep this close? Pro Football Focus’ Lee Sharpe broke it down:
The Steelers are clearly the best team in this matchup — there’s no doubt about that. But Washington is the best among the sad set of teams that make up the NFC East, being somewhat unfairly dragged down with them in terms of perception. Conversely, the Steelers are thought of quite strongly as the last undefeated team in the NFL — and they are likely still somewhat overrated.
The biggest reason why I like this line is the rest differential between these teams. There has been no NFL game, at least since realignment, where one team has a short rest of only five days (as the Steelers will here), while the other team has a mini-bye of 10-plus days (Washington Football Team will have 11, having last played on Thanksgiving). This should provide Washington with a significant advantage in this game.
The disparity in time off is not to be understated. Washington has been able to game-plan for more than a week for Pittsburgh, while the Steelers are coming off of an uninspired 19-14 win over the Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens on Wednesday afternoon. That definitely makes a difference.
It’s also interesting to note how much a win benefits Washington as far as the playoff race goes. Check out this graphic from PFF:
With a win, Washington would have a 54% chance to win the NFC East; with a loss their chances drop to 29%. Of course, there are similar numbers to the New York Giants, who would improve to 52% chances with a win over the Seahawks, and just 26% with a loss. They are currently favored to lose by 10.5 points on the road.
It’s going to take a perfect game from Washington in order to shock the world and knock off the undefeated Steelers, but it’s 2020 — far crazier things have happened. While you may not want to bet that they can pull off the ultimate upset, it’s extremely possible that they can keep this one close and cover the spread.
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