SEC predictions for week 5
We’ve officially waded waist-deep into conference play.
Last week, I promised I would crack 80% on my picks for the season and after going 7-1 in week four, I managed to get to 80% (36-9 on the year). This week is going to be tough if I want to keep that rate going.
There are two top 25 matchups on deck for us this week in the Southeastern Conference, with the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks heading down to Athens to take on the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, and the No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels taking on the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Not only do we have these two fantastic matchups in store, but we also have two other top 25 teams on the road to face valiant conference foes (No. 10 Florida at Kentucky, No. 22 Auburn at LSU). Also, don’t forget the Super Bowl is being played this weekend between UConn and Vanderbilt. It’s must watch television.
Here are my predictions for the SEC in week five.
No. 2 Georgia vs No. 8 Arkansas
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 89.1% (Georgia)
My prediction: While Arkansas has been formidable up until this contest, Georgia possesses to much talent on both sides of the ball to choke at home. No disrespect to Arkansas, but that Bulldogs defensive front will be too much for the Razorbacks to handle.
Georgia 37
Arkansas 17
Missouri vs Tennessee
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 52.8% (Missouri)
My prediction: Missouri’s defense has been abysmal so far this season. With a high-powered Tennessee offense coming to town, I wonder if the Tigers will be able to keep up for long enough in this game. Unfortunatley for the Vols, Hendon Hooker’s health is a question mark for this game. I think Missouri wins in a close shootout.
Missouri 43
Tennessee 38
No. 1 Alabama vs No. 12 Ole Miss
Gary Cosby-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 81.1% (Alabama)
My prediction: If this game was in Oxford, I would be picking Lane Kiffin to be the first disciple to beat Nick Saban. Alabama’s offensive line has been a huge question mark this season, but Bryce Young’s poise hasn’t wavered. That’s the difference in this game.
Alabama 40
Ole Miss 30
South Carolina vs Troy
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 71.4% (South Carolina)
My prediction: I really don’t feel good about this game. I’m going to take South Carolina to win with some help from a healthy Luke Doty, but don’t be surprised if the Trojans either cover or win outright.
South Carolina 34
Troy 22
Kentucky vs No. 10 Florida
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 77.4% (Florida)
My prediction: Kentucky has consistently played to the level of their competition this year. I don’t trust them to play to the level of a Gators squad that is in the midst of finding their mojo. In Dan Mullen we trust.
Kentucky 20
Florida 29
No. 15 Texas A&M vs Mississippi State
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 68.5% (Texas A&M)
My prediction: A&M is currently on a downward spiral without a quarterback on roster that they truly seem to trust. The gameplay wasn’t there last week against Arkansas, but I believe the Aggies defense does enough to win this game. If Mississippi State can’t move the ball well against LSU, they won’t do it in College Station.
Texas A&M 30
Mississippi State 13
Vanderbilt vs UConn
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI prediction: 83.0% (Vanderbilt)
My prediction: Could I have asked for a better matchup this weekend? A Connecticut team that has completely checked out five games into the season against a Vanderbilt squad that was just folded like an origami anchor by Georgia this past weekend. If I could give both of these teams a win this weekend, I would. Their programs need a confidence booster. Give me Vandy by a lot. The Commodores might not be up to SEC standards but they are miles ahead of UConn right now.
Vanderbilt 47
UConn 10
LSU vs No. 22 Auburn
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
ESPN FPI prediction: 52.2% (LSU)
My prediction: With all of the mystery surrounding the quarterback situation at Auburn, I can’t pick them in confidence to beat LSU in Baton Rouge for the first time in 22 years. Auburn’s secondary has been a liability this season, and LSU will be the first team to truly expose it.
Auburn fans, if you’re looking for any vote of confidence heading into this game, hear this- these LSU Tigers may be the worst Auburn has faced in Death Valley since Auburn beat them in 1999. You know this coaching staff is picking Finley’s brain over this game. Whoever starts at QB should have some success for Auburn… if this coaching staff is willing to make adjustments elsewhere. The Tigers didn’t break against Penn State. Even though Georgia State outplayed Auburn for the majority of last weeks game, it still feels like an anomaly. LSU will prove whether that’s true or false.
LSU 31
Auburn 23
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