Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy Awards Heading Into Week 8

Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I'm your host, Eric Samulski, and we've come to the week seven of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.

As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.

While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you're not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.

If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let's hand out some hardware that doesn't exist and people wouldn't really want if it did!

Star of the Week: D'Onta Foreman - RB, Chicago Beras

Khalil Herbert is on IR and it was meant to be rookie Roschon Johnson's chance to shine. Instead, a concussion kept Johnson out of the game, so D'Onta Foreman took the opportunity and ran with it - literally - totaling 89 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, plus another 31 yards and a touchdown through the air. His 31.5 point fantasy total in half-PPR leagues was tops of any non-quarterback, and he absolutely won people some matchups this week.

With Johnson likely returning in Week 8, the Bears backfield figures to be a two-back committee and could even devolve into a three-back nightmare when Herbert is eventually activated off the IL. So while Foreman will likely not reaches these highs again this season, we'll always have Week 7.

Breakout Player Award: Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts

While Jordan Addison could absolutely be worthy of this award, he was also vaulted into the top wide receiver role in his offense with Justin Jefferson out, so his breakout was a bit more expected than Downs' this week.

On the year, Downs is third on the Colts in routes run, second in targets and third in air yards, so he's been a consistent part of the passing attack, but Alec Pierce continues to remain involved, Michael Pittman is clearly the number one, and Gardner Minshew is inconsistent under center. All of that seemed to contribute to Downs being overlooked in fantasy despite now averaging 12.1 points in PPR leagues.

With the Colts in catch-up mode for much of their Week 7 contest against the Browns, Downs was able to explode for 125 yards and a touchdown on five catches. His six targets led the team, and he now has four top-30 WR finishes and two top-18 performances in that span. Of course, the inconsistency of Gardner Minshew remains and Jonathan Taylor is growing back into his full-time role in this offense, but Downs looks like he's here to stay as a fantasy contributor this year and beyond.

The Office Space Award: Calvin Ridley - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

This award highlights a player who we're all looking at on our rosters and thinking:

Perhaps giving Ridley this award is too extreme since he does rank third on the Jaguars with a 21% target share. However, after a Week 1 finish as a top six wide receiver with a 35% target share, the next six weeks have felt like a huge letdown. From Week 2 on, Ridley averages six targets (four catchable targets) per game on 16% targets per route run. That has led to 267 yards on 19 catches across six games. Aside from his 122 yard outburst against a Bills team that had just lost Pro Bowl CB Tre'Davious White, Ridley has not exceeded 40 yards receiving in any game since Week 1.

Over that same span, Christian Kirk is averaging 8.3 targets per game and 22% targets per route run. Zay Jones, when healthy, has seen five targets per game and 18% targets per route run, and Evan Engram has 7.33 targets per game and 21% targets per routes run. Ridley is beginning to look a lot like a boom-or-bust WR3 going forward.

Golden Globe Award: Gardner Minshew - QB, Indianapolis Colts

Every so often we get a clear reminder that value in fantasy football does not always equal value in real life much like winning a Golden Globe award doesn't actually reflect the popularity or success of the movie or performer. Up until recently, the Golden Globes were voted on by an international body that had no minority members and had evidence of providing nominations and awards based on bribes and incentives. It was more popularity contest than anything.

It's similarly misleading that Gardner Minshew finished as the 5th-highest scorer in all of fantasy football last week, posting 28.1 points. Yes, he threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another two, but he also threw a pick, took four sacks, and lost three fumbles. THREE. This is the second straight week where Minshew has dug his team into a hole with turnovers and then put up massive fantasy totals trying to drag his team out of said hole.

I guess it works for fantasy purposes, but you might be better off not watching the game.

Frankenstein Award: Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions

If you've watched any version of any Frankenstein movie, you know the iconic moment where Dr. Frankenstein proclaims that the monster is alive.

That's how many fantasy managers feel about Jahmyr Gibbs' value after he rushed 11 times for 68 yards and a touchdown on Sunday and caught another nine passes for 58 yards through the air. In two games without David Montgomery, Gibbs has averaged 14 rushing attempts and has 5.5 targets. The upside is clear.

However, that's also only when Montgomery is out. When the veteran comes back, he should be fully expected to take over the lead back duties in Detroit, so if you're in a redraft league, now might be the time to sniff around on some deals for Gibbs.

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Ryan Gosling Replacement Award: Darrell Henderson - RB, Los Angeles Rams

Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in "The Notebook"? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history.

In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. This week, that award goes to Darrell Henderson, who was signed off the street last week and then immediately took over the Rams' backfield with Kyren Williams on IR.

Despite many people trying to convince themselves that Royce Freeman or Myles Gaskin or Zack Evans was going to lead this backfield, Henderson had a 58% snap share and 60% of the rushing attempts. He also was on the field for all of the situations inside the five-yard line and in the two-minute offense. Henderson has a history of bell-cow back with Sean McVay, and while he wasn’t incredibly efficient with his carries, he never really has been and McVay still went back to him. Henderson is looking like the clear RB1 in Los Angeles until Kyren Williams is back and could even eat into some of Williams' workload if he performs well over the next few weeks.

We should have never counted Henderson out.

Boomerang Award: Emari Demercado - RB, Arizona Cardinals

As we all know, the boomerang is something you throw away from you that just turns around and comes right back. Similarly, Emari Demercado was a priority waiver pick-up heading into Week 6 because he seemed likely to start in place of injured James Conner. Instead he had two rushes compared to 10 for Keaontay Ingram and eight for Damien Williams. So, of course, we head into Week 7 and Demercado gets 13 carries and plays 50 snaps while Ingram didn't get one single offensive snap.

In truth, there were some signs this could happen in Week 6 that we all missed, myself included. Demercado still ran 26 routes in Week 6 compared to just 10 for Ingram and six for Williams. Demercado also had three of the short down and distance snaps in Week 6 compared to two for Ingram and two for Williams, and Demercado had eight snaps in the two minute drill compared to none for either Ingram or Williams.

So even in Week 6, the Cardinals had Demercado on the field often. It just didn't amount to many carries. However, that rectified itself in a big way in Week 7, and I think it's clear he's the lead back until Conner is back. Or not. Who really knows. However, Arizona faces the Ravens and Browns defenses over the next two games, so Demercado is more of a low-end RB2/FLEX play.

Rodney Dangerfield Award: Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders

For those of you too young to remember, this award is fondly named after the comedian Rodney Dangerfield, who was most famous for being in "Caddyshack" and also for a schtick in which he bemoaned that he couldn't get any respect from the day he was born. Sometimes it feels like that also applies to Jakobi Meyers, who is not being talked about enough despite being the WR15 in half-PPR leagues, averaging 14.5 points per game.

Even though he plays alongside future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, Meyers averages a 28% target share and is 13th, according to Fantasy Life's Utilization report, in the NFL in targets despite missing a game. He gets 32% of his team's air yards, which puts him in the same company as Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman, and DeVonta Smith.

Meyers is looking like a rock solid WR2 in PPR formats the rest of the way and if the Raiders decide to move disgruntled Davante Adams then Meyers' value will just continue to grow.

Horizon Award: Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills

The Horizon Award is where we look out into the distance and see if we can spot something magical, like a beautiful sunset or a potential fantasy asset. For me, that person is Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid was tremendous in his return from a concussion last week, catching eight passes for 75 yards. His eight targets were second on the Bills, behind Stefon Diggs, and this is a team without a clear second receiver.

However, Kincaid's value saw it's biggest bump from the recent surgery to fellow tight end Dawson Knox, which could sideline him over a month. With Knox on the field, Kincaid was running 63% of the routes and averaging 27 routes per game. Without Knox on the field, Kincaid could see 40 routes or more and he currently has a 21% target share when Knox isn't on the field. If Kincaid is running 40 routes and getting a target share north of 20%, then he could easily be looking at six or eight targets and game on a team that passes a lot with an elite quarterback. That makes Kincaid a potential TE1 as long as Knox is out, and perhaps for longer.

That's it for this week; we'll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!