Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy Awards Heading into Week 16
Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I'm your host, Eric Samulski, and we've come to the 15th week of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.
As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.
While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you're not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.
If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let's hand out some hardware that doesn't exist and people wouldn't really want if it did!
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Star of the Week: James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills
Yes, technically Cook was outscored by Christian McCaffrey by 4.1 points in half-PPR formats, but I wanted to highlight Cook here because I believe his performance was the true star performance of the week. There were many people lamenting the end of Cook's fantasy season when the Bills signed Leonard Fournette, but the change at offensive coordinator from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady has drastically changed the course of Cook's season.
Since Brady took over the play-calling duties in Week 11, Cook has averaged 24.1 points per game, and a big part of that is his increased usage in the passing game. While Cook is still running a similar number of routes, he's now become more of a primary option in the passing game as defenses key in on Stefon Diggs. Over the four games with Brady calling plays, Cook has seen 31% of targets per route run, including seam routes up the middle of the field and wheel routes for touchdowns.
Cook was drafted as plus athlete with game-breaking skills and now that he's averaging over 20 touches per game with Brady calling plays, he's a locked in RB1 for the fantasy playoffs.
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Breakout Player Award: Ty Chandler - RB, Minnesota Vikings
After watching Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers fail to deliver, it was nice to see Chandler finally get a chance to show his worth to the Vikings. In his first start of his career, Chandler was given the full workload with 82% of the rushing attempts and a 12% target share. That amounted to 23 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown to go along with three catches for 25 yards receiving.
He showed an explosiveness that neither Mattison nor Akers did and even though Mattison could come back from his injury in Week 16, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell mentioned in a postgame interview that they want to continue to feature Chandler. While it's not entirely clear what that means, it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle after Chandler ripped off 5.7 yards per carry. The game against the Lions could be a high-scoring one, which could mean another strong fantasy day for Chandler.
Undertaker Award: Chris Godwin - WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
Everybody knows the GIF. Some of us were alive to see it live. But this award is given to a player who we left for dead who simply came roaring back.
This week, that award goes to Chris Godwin, who exploded with 10 receptions for 155 yards in a win over the Packers. It's his second straight game with double-digit targets since the Bucs coached started talking about making it a point to get him more involved. While the targets didn't amount to a huge day against the Falcons, he now has back-to-back games with 39% and 42% target shares, respectively.
We know that Godwin is capable of putting up big scores when he's going right, and he gets a good matchup this weekend against the Jaguars. He might be turning his season around in time to carry people to the fantasy football championships.
Horizon Award: Jameson Williams - WR, Detroit Lions
The Horizon Award is where we look for a player who looks like they could be on the verge of a breakout. This week, we give that award to Lions receiver Jameson Williams. The former first-round pick looked set to be a top five or ten pick before a brutal knee injury ended his final collegiate season. Then we thought he was going to emerge as a threat for the Lions before he got suspended for gambling. Well, it seems that we might finally be seeing Williams play his way into a bigger role.
In Week 15, he ran a season-high 72% of routes for the Lions and had a 22% target share, which was second on the team behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Now, Williams was clearly the third most useful player in the passing game with Sam LaPorta going off, but Williams jumping ahead of Josh Reynolds for the first time could be a sign of increased workload in the last few weeks. Or it could be because Reynolds was limited by a back injury in practice. Either way, Williams is beginning to see more opportunities and has the ability to turn those chances into major fantasy days.
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Spoiled Milk Award: Zack Moss - RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Spoiled Milk Award goes to a player who has potentially stayed on your roster past their expiration date, much like that carton of milk in the back of your fridge. This week, that award goes to Zack Moss. While Moss was tremendous to start the season, he has struggled in the three weeks since taking over for Jonathan Taylor, rushing 36 times for 92 yards with no touchdowns. He has added 54 yards receiving and one touchdown on nine catches, but with Gardner Minshew under center instead of Anthony Richardson, Moss may have a hard time replicating his early season success.
Now, some of those stats are skewed by the fact that he left last week's game early with a shoulder injury, but that's also another reason why he may no longer need a spot in your starting lineup. X-rays were negative on Moss's shoulder and he claims he plans to play through the injury this week, but how effective will he be? Given his ineffectiveness in his previous two full-time starting opportunities, it might be time to dump the milk and buy a new carton.
The Office Space Award: Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets
This award highlights a player who we're all looking at on our rosters and thinking:
This week, that award goes to Breece Hall. After putting up 18.6 fantasy points in Week 14, Hall was held in check against the Dolphins with just 12 rushing yards on six carries and 1.8 fantasy points on the day. He's now scored under five fantasy points in three of the last four weeks and hasn't rushed for over 50 yards since Week 5. While the receiving work has led to some spike weeks, Hall has become super boom-or-bust and one that it's hard to count on in the fantasy football playoffs. However, he does have a great matchup this week against Washington, so he could pull us back in for one more ride.
Ryan Gosling Award: Zamir White - RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in "The Notebook"? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history. In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. That award goes to Zamir White, who filled in admirably for Josh Jacobs last week and could do so again in Week 16.
Given the chance to start last week, White played 70% of the Raiders' snaps and handled 65% of rushing attempts while running a route on 59% of dropbacks. That's basically the same role as Josh Jacobs. He turned that into 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 16 yards. Overall, it's not as great of a game as we saw from Ty Chandler in his first start, but it's the workload we really care about and the workload that makes White a solid option if he's given another start this week.
Hello, Boys; I'm Back Award: Gus Edwards - RB, Baltimore Ravens
Just like with Randy Quaid in "Independence Day," with this award, we shout out a player's return to fantasy relevance.
While we never want to see injuries, especially ones like what happened to Keaton Mitchell on Sunday night, we also have to talk about the fantasy implications of those. For Baltimore, that likely means a return to relevance for Gus Edwards.
Edwards averaged 19.3 points per game from Week 7 until Week 10 before Keaton Mitchell was activated and changed the Ravens backfield into a three-headed committee that frustrated all fantasy managers. With Mitchell now out for the season, Edwards should return to a similar role which gave him 15-20 touch upside and all of the red zone work (aside from Lamar Jackson) on a good offense. Previously that provided him with multi-TD upside, so we should expect that to continue, even if Justice Hill will take most of the passing down work. The 49ers are not a good matchup this week, but all Edwards needs is one short touchdown to change the complexion of his fantasy day and that can happen in any game.
That's it for this week; we'll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!
