Will Republicans punish DeWine come election or will moderates rule the day?
In looking at some of the results of our most recent, high-profile elections, I wondered: Are moderates making a comeback?
Joe Biden, a moderate, becomes president.
Eric Adams, a moderate, becomes the mayor of New York, the most progressive city in the United States.
Gavin Newsom wins his fight against the recall, not because voters really liked him, but because they found the alternative — the right-leaning Larry Elder — distasteful.
More: Column: Political moderates can be game-changers in November
Three races don’t make a nationwide trend, but they do provide some clues as to the thinking of the electorate. Paul Beck put it this way — the extremes play in primaries, but moderates play in the general election.
“In the general election, generally, the more moderate candidate is going to prevail over extreme candidates. The primaries are set up in such a way that the parties are likely to nominate people from their political extremes, particularly on the Republican side,” said Beck, a professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University who has conducted election surveys in more than 50 countries across the world.
Political analyst Mark Halperin said in an email, ”The loudest, most extreme voices on the national town square are sometimes these days drowned out by a chorus of quieter voices, joining in unison to elect more moderate candidates.”
This should not be a surprise, Halperin said, because there are tens of millions of Americans who gravitate naturally to the center and want their government to be more about governing than shouting.
The numbers bear out the moderate rejuvenation. Gallup says those self-identifying as conservatives are waning and moderates (35%) and liberals (25%) account for the largest block of voters.
Election Day also showed the power of moderation. While Republicans sought out and ran school board candidates on platforms of racial grievance tied to critical race theory and anti-mask protests, communities across Ohio rejected that message and returned incumbents to their seats. On the national front, voters in Milwaukee rejected a ballot effort to defund the police.
Granted, the term “moderate” applies to Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
These are people at the political center who see both sides of an issue and value compromise in solving society’s problems.
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You can be a conservative against higher taxes on the wealthy or a Democrat who steadfastly believes in raising them. But the ability to work through the issues separates moderates from the party fringes.
This discussion has particular relevance in Ohio, where Gov. Mike DeWine faces a primary challenge from Jim Renacci, the former Congressman running as a Trump-publican.
Primaries attract far fewer voters, about 25% of registered voters.
It will be fascinating how much of the right wing of the party turns out for Renacci and whether Republicans, some still angry with DeWine over his COVID mandates, back him or stay silent.
More: Trump hints at primary challenge for DeWine in tweet
In the end, DeWine is one of the most decent men you’ll ever meet, and I suspect that will trump (no pun intended) any primary challenge and possibly set up a race against outgoing Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who both Beck and I expect to win the Democratic nomination.
More: Ohio mayors are picking sides in Dem primary for governor: Nan Whaley or John Cranley
So while it seems the yelling and screaming on the fringe works, my conversations with Beck and Halperin made me feel better.
Moderation — from all political perspectives — seems to be winning, at least for now. That would be a very welcome development.
Ray Marcano is a longtime journalist whose columns occasionally appear in The Dispatch. He can be reached at raymarcanodispatch@gmail.com.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ray Marcano: Will voters punish DeWine come election or will moderates rule?
