A refreshed Igor Shesterkin holds the key to getting the Rangers back on track

TARRYTOWN - The line of demarcation for these Rangers is Dec. 5.

At that oft-referenced point, they were sitting pretty at 18-4-1 with the best points percentage (.804) in the NHL. It’s been a much different story in the 26 games since, with their 12-12-2 record in that span equaling an even .500 PTS% that can’t be classified as anything but mediocre.

The Blueshirts have pointed to a variety of reasons for that extended slide, with a few notable areas of concern. An increase in turnovers, which have exasperated their issues with defending against the rush, a dip in power play production and a lack of consistent scoring outside of the Artemi Panarin-Vincent Trocheck-Alexis Lafrenière line are certainly on that list.

But some may find it surprising to know that New York’s five-on-five play grades out similarly before and after Dec. 5. Their expected-goal share is actually better in the last 26 games (50.98%) than it was in the first 23 (49.56%), while their shot share (51.26% vs. 52.33%) and high-danger scoring chance rate (49.31% vs. 51.61%) are also a tick higher, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The Rangers' goals against average is up (2.57 vs. 3.12), but it’s hard to find an obvious defensive drop-off – except for one very important category.

Goaltending.

Compare Igor Shesterkin’s save percentage in his first 14 starts (.916) to his last 18 (.884) and you’ll find the most glaring change pre and post Dec. 5.

The mercurial netminder is well aware of this discrepancy.

“I need to turn around everything,” he said following Sunday’s first practice back from the bye week at the MSG Training Center. "Do a 180."

A mental reset

Shesterkin traveled to Toronto for the NHL all-star game shouldering the disappointment of a 9-8-1 record in the last two months and an uncharacteristic .899 save percentage for the season.

That frustration was clearly weighing on him, but he's hopeful a stress-free week filled with family and decompression time will reinvigorate him for the final push toward the playoffs.

"My numbers are not good, but I’m working hard," said the 28-year-old, who spent a few days in Miami before traveling with his wife and young son north of the border. "I think sometimes it’s needing to be a little bit better; sometimes it’s unlucky goals. I had a good time this week, and I think that helped me so much."

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A mental reset may be more important than any technical fixes.

Shesterkin is notoriously hard on himself, which he tried to work on over the summer, but it's one of those easier-said-than-done situations. Negative thoughts have a way of creeping back in when he's not getting the results he expects, particularly with his tendency for getting burned early in games and allowing multiple strikes in quick succession.

"It’s not fun to give up a first-shot goal," he said.

That can create a snowball effect and lead to some of the crooked scores we've seen in recent weeks, with Shesterkin surrendering four goals or more in five of his last 10 starts. And while many of them have come on odd-man rushes and other "loud" scoring chances, as head coach Peter Laviolette has described them, it's worth noting that the Rangers are allowing slightly fewer high-danger chances per game since Dec. 5 (8.69) than they were before (9.52).

Flaws exposed

Teammates and Laviolette have repeatedly defended their No. 1 goalie, placing the blame on collective cracks in the defense.

"The responsibility lies on us to do a better job in front of him," Laviolette said prior to the break.

It's hard to fault them given how often Shesterkin has bailed them out since arriving on Broadway in early 2020, particularly during his 2021-22 Vezina Trophy-winning campaign, but the reality is that he's been a notch or two below that level for much of this season.

At his best, No. 31 is capable of making a few momentum-altering saves each game. The Rangers came to rely on those heroics, with Shesterkin routinely covering up their mistakes and stealing wins. But that has not been the case lately, causing team flaws that have existed under the hood to suddenly cause the check engine light to come on.

His expected-goal differentials bear that out.

In his Vezina season, Shesterkin was expected to allow 143.43 goals based on the quality of the scoring chances he faced, according to Clear Sight Analytics, yet surrendered only 106. That 37.43 gap registered as the best in the league by a wide margin of 12.14. He wasn't as dominant in 2022-23, yet still finished with a 21.11 differential that ranked eighth.

This season, his 0.97 differential sits way down at No. 45 overall. Had it been anywhere close to previous top-10 levels, it's fair to assume the Rangers would have won at least a few more than 12 of their last 26 games. They actually outshot their opponents in 11 of 14 games played in January, yet won only five of them.

'Enjoy hockey again'

Perhaps it's an unfair burden to place on one player, but Shesterkin's excellence is a critical component in the Blueshirts' blueprint for success.

In fact, you could argue it's the critical component.

Improving their forward depth prior to the March 8 trade deadline is another important piece that team president Chris Drury is actively working on, along with tightening their defense and unlocking the struggling parts of their offense. But if Shesterkin doesn't return to form − or at least get much closer to it − it's hard to imagine these Rangers ending their 30-year Stanley Cup drought this spring.

The good news is there's still plenty of time for that to happen. Don't forget he went through a rough patch last season, then hit his stride in March and was the team's best player from that point forward.

Shesterkin doesn't take much solace in his history of overcoming slumps − "I don’t think about it," he said − but he did appear more at ease Sunday than he has in weeks.

He joked about not reading his stats ("I deleted my NHL app") and getting luck back on his side ("I hope the puck starts to like me more"), with that disarming demeanor a sign of what the Rangers can only hope is a refreshed netminder.

Their season may depend on it.

"I have to play much better and try to have fun," Shesterkin said. "Start to enjoy hockey again."

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: A refreshed Igor Shesterkin holds the key to the Rangers' season