Ranking: Teams with the most pressure heading into the season
With the NBA season right around the corner, we take a look at the teams with the most pressure to produce. Several of these teams will need to reach lofty expectations or at least not fall below a certain threshold to keep the status quo. Some of these squads have high stakes on the line such as the future of their star player.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off one of the most embarrassing playoff exits in NBA history with few assets available to make significant changes. Thankfully, they were able to parlay what little they had left into Damian Lillard, and they may have been at the top of these rankings otherwise. That acquisition has bought them more time with an aging championship core and the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo. There’s still no guarantee that Antetokounmpo will extend with the Bucks next summer, but at least that noise should settle for the remainder of this season.
They are now out of moves to make with all their draft equity through 2030 tied up elsewhere. They are as all-in as they could get and the pressure is on to produce, especially after making a head coaching change. Early leaguewide and fan expectations for the Bucks are nothing short of making the Eastern Conference Finals, which they’ve missed two years in a row. Internally, it could be championship or bust over these remaining two guaranteed years of Antetokounmpo’s contract.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot going for them right now. Anthony Edwards seems set to ascend to stardom and be one of the faces of the league over the next decade. Jaden McDaniels could be a consistent All-Defensive player with plenty of room to grow offensively. There still remains a possibility that the Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert pairing works and the team could rank high in both offensive and defensive rating. And the tragedy of this Wolves team is that even if all those things happen this season, they still might not be able to keep this group together.
The Wolves are approaching a potential crossroads with the costs of keeping all four of these players looking unrealistic. Towns, Gobert, and Edwards are all on maximum contracts and McDaniels is also due for a lucrative new deal. If all four players are kept along with Naz Reid, they would be deep into the tax and over the second apron over the next several seasons. And that’s before factoring a new deal for Mike Conley or addressing their point guard situation elsewhere. A deep playoff run this spring may be needed to justify running back this entire group.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers are entering year five of the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era. With the exception of their 2021 run to the Western Conference Finals, the last four years have mostly been mired with injuries and falling short of expectations. They’re entering the 2023-24 season with one of the oldest rosters in the league, making it fair to question just how much longer of a window this group has left. But with their draft equity under control of the Thunder through 2026, and a new arena on the horizon, they have little incentive to close the chapter on this era just yet.
Enough time has passed since the George trade that they can now trade up to two of their own first-round picks and swaps between 2027 and 2030. Right now they’re wrestling with whether to further mortgage their future for James Harden to improve their current window and hopefully extend it. A trade for Harden would indicate a commitment and belief in this core for several more years. But if more injuries and early exits occur in a similar fashion as the past few seasons, the sooner they could get to a point where they seriously consider blowing up the team.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls of the last few years could best be described as incredibly average. They traded a significant amount of draft equity to put this group together and have been mostly mediocre, other than a strong first half in 2021-22. They may not have expected a championship nucleus like many critics felt when they put this group together, but they were certainly expecting to be more competitive and relevant. This upcoming third full season with this iteration of the team could be a make-or-break year for the Bulls.
It appears that the Bulls have already begun doing their due diligence on the possibility of making significant changes to the roster. They’ve reportedly listened to offers for Zach LaVine, and trading him would likely be their best path toward retooling the roster. They are unlikely to have cap flexibility as long as his maximum contract is on the books, and they’ll continue to tread the tax if they re-sign or extend other veterans on the team. It’s possible we hear his name, along with others like DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic in trade rumors if they’re having more or less a repeat of last season.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are once again dealing with a public trade request from an All-Star for the second time in three years. Unlike the Ben Simmons situation, James Harden doesn’t have the same trade value or market. Thankfully, Joel Embiid is locked in for the next four seasons with his supermax extension about to kick in. However, it doesn’t help that other teams already planning for the possibility he demands a trade. The pressure is on as the Sixers must find the right trade that gives them enough assets to significantly improve the roster later.
So far, Embiid has said all the right things and looks forward to competing for a championship this season with or without Harden. As of now, the Sixers are looking to maximize 2024 cap space to improve the roster next season. The dropoff between both the Celtics and Bucks and the Sixers feels overwhelming, but there is a pathway to add an impactful player this year who could help close the gap. It’s possible they are able to convert the draft picks they get for Harden, along with the one first-round pick and two swaps of their own they could trade, for such impactful players now.
Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors went through the unprecedented loss of a superstar Finals MVP leaving them after winning the championship. Despite losing Kawhi Leonard and the significant title odds that left with him, they have remained as competitive as possible over the past four seasons. Unfortunately, they’ve only won one playoff series and have seen several players walk out the door in free agency such as Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and Fred VanVleet. In a situation where many teams would’ve at least had a soft reset and traded some of their upcoming veteran free agents, the Raptors left value on the table by holding on to these players.
The loss of VanVleet might not just derail their championship hopes but their playoff hopes as well. They now have arguably the weakest point guard rotation in the league and must get creative to facilitate an already struggling half-court offense. If they play well below expectations as we get closer to the trade deadline, do they go into yet another summer with key players set to become free agents? If not, we could see them trade players like Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby instead of risking losing them for nothing.
Dallas Mavericks
It is remarkable how much things could change in a year in the NBA. Everything was looking great for the Dallas Mavericks just over a year ago after a run to the Western Conference Finals. Even if that run was a fluke, missing the playoffs last year felt like an overcorrection past the mean. The true strength of this year’s Mavericks team might be somewhere in the middle, but that likely isn’t enough for a team that nearly made the Finals a year ago. The combination of high expectations, the bad taste of last season, and constantly being on the clock with Luka Doncic, should create a high-pressure environment.
Doncic is under contract in Dallas through 2026 when he could opt out and become an unrestricted free agent. He will likely become supermax-eligible as early as this season if he makes an All-NBA team again. His acceptance or hesitance of the offer, once eligible to sign in 2025, should give them an answer on where his head is at. Unfortunately, that gives them limited chances to make enough progress. They’re limited in ways to significantly improve the roster with only one first-round pick available to trade and no top prospects to offer. If Dallas continues to struggle to make the playoffs, we should hear plenty of speculation on Doncic’s future.
