Ranking the schools: What ACC programs could be conference expansion targets of the Big Ten?
Could the ACC be set to see some of their members join the Big Ten? ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes so.
A former NFL quarterback who won a national championship with Alabama football, McElroy believes that the Big Ten is the most likely of any conference to start expanding. In addition, he thinks the conference will go East Coast next and not be fixated on the Pac-12.
So how do the ACC programs stack up in terms of their appeal to the Big Ten? Which ACC programs are the best fit for the Big Ten.
Now let’s outline some of the criteria first:
Preference is given to AAU member organizations. This is important since all Big Ten members that have entered the conference have done so as AAU members. Only Nebraska isn’t a member but they were at the time of being added to the Big Ten in 2011.
Television markets matter, they really do.
Football, not basketball, drives the bus. Although basketball and the Olympic sports do factor in significantly to the Big Ten Network’s programming and overall bottom line. There is one caveat to this statement and it is addressed in the list.
For purposes of this exercise, Notre Dame is considered an independent and not an ACC member.
With the Big Ten set to add UCLA and USC and rumors of Oregon and Washington next, it looks like the Big Ten might make a push for 20 programs overall.
So what ACC programs could the Big Ten be looking to poach? And who makes the most sense for the Big Ten, were interest to be mutual.
10. North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
It seems sad to lump several of these programs together but someone has to be in the basement of this discussion. Unfortunately, geography is working against all five of these programs.
In the case of North Carolina State and Wake Forest, were the Big Ten to accept North Carolina and/or Duke, it wouldn’t need either of the other two ACC programs from the state as there would be geographic redundance. Same for Pittsburgh, which has geographic redundancy with Penn State. And if Virginia were to move to the Big Ten, then Virginia Tech would be left out in the cold.
As for Syracuse, this is a school that has a fine athletic tradition in football, basketball and several Olympic sports. But the television markets they capture are just not that significant in today’s modern media world.
Stings for ‘Cuse fans, but it is true.
9. Louisville
Louisville certainly could have been a contender to be with the likes of North Carolina State and Syracuse on the outs of this discussion…but they do have a solid media market, are a known entity for basketball (for better or for worse) and have had decent football success in recent years. The proximity to Ohio is also a plus.
Is Louisville likely to be considered? Not really. But it does have a legitimate candidacy…well, more legitimate than the above schools.
8. Georgia Tech
Can Georgia Tech deliver the Atlanta market? If the answer is yes, then the ‘Ramblin Wreck could well move up this list.
But in a state dominated by Georgia football, it doesn’t seem likely that Tech would get an invite here. They’re a very distance second in their own state.
And as the Big Ten is looking for impact markets to expand into, Georgia Tech just feels a bit forced as a contender for conference expansion.
7. Duke
OK, so this is a weird one. Duke’s brand is bigger outside North Carolina than within the state, a state that is dominated by the Tar Heels. But they are a national brand, at least for basketball.
And football is occassionally good, plus the Olympic sports are stellar.
Duke’s appeal will be not in their home television market but in the numbers that they would bring for national broadcasts. Simply put: you either love or hate Duke.
Regardless of your love or hate, you tune in to watch them nonetheless.
6. Clemson
It would seem, on paper, that Clemson would be higher up this list. After all, the Tigers recently won a national championship and have successful basketball programs.
But the size of the market is small compared to some other ACC programs in contention here, and that hurts Clemson. Also hurting Clemson is that they aren’t an AAU program.
OK, let’s clear this out of the way: Boston College isn’t an AAU institution. But they are highly regarded academically. Is the Big Ten willing to overlook this?
They might. And why, you ask?
Boston is the tenth largest media market in the nation and the largest for an ACC program in terms of their home market. That matters for television deals.
Their AAU statues hurts, no doubt. But Boston College has had plenty of Olympic sports success and would be a natural fit here.
4. Virginia
Perhaps the most natural fit in terms of academics and athletics, Virginia offers just about everything the Big Ten wants.
It’s border makes for a natural rivalry with Penn State and Maryland. The institution is an AAU member. There is some great success here and although football has suffered, it is clear that men’s basketball, baseball and wrestling along with soccer and lacrosse, would all add something special to the Big Ten.
3. Florida State
The second-most popular program in one of the largest states in the nation, Florida State is a national brand with a rabid fanbase in football. While not an AAU program, Florida State has some serious potential to be a sizzling addition to the Big Ten in football and basketball.
The AAU issue is a stickler but if Florida State wants in, the Big Ten will make it happen.
2. Miami
A top 20 market, one of the largest in the ACC, also means that Miami brings plenty of attention to their Big Ten candidacy.
Miami holds a national brand and while they’ve struggled in football in recent years, including with moving tickets, this is still a non-brainer.
Factor in the success of both basketball programs and baseball and Miami might be a smooth fit in the Big Ten.
1. North Carolina
Like Virgnia, the fit is simply there for North Carolina. An AAU school, the recent football success helps their candidacy. But don’t get it twisted, even as football drives the bus this is a move all about the national brand in men’s basketball.
North Carolina delivers the combination of academics and athletics that the conference craves.
