Ranking the 10 Bucs players most critical to success in 2023
TAMPA — This time, he walked into the sunset with nary a stutter step.
Tom Brady has shown no sign of audibling out of retirement in 2023, and many presume the Bucs are heading back to an era that teemed with pewter and putrid.
But while conventional logic says Tampa Bay is staring at a serious regression without Brady (or Rob Gronkowski or the 2021 version of Leonard Fournette), some players could help the franchise stiff-arm convention with big years.
Here are the 10 guys (ranked in order of significance) we deem most critical to the franchise’s fortunes this season. For fun, we have drawn comparisons in each case to players from the Brady era and the bleak one (12-year playoff drought) that preceded it.
10. TE Cade Otton
Year: Second
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Rob Gronkowski’s hologram. Now the No. 1 tight end in the room, Otton can’t reasonably be expected to replicate Gronk’s brute-force run blocking or historic prowess as a pass catcher. But if he can make a jump in Year 2 after an encouraging rookie season (42 catches, 391 yards), it would provide a desperately needed dimension to the Bucs’ passing game.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Unreliable on and off the field, the team’s second-round pick in 2014 totaled only 45 catches in parts of three seasons in Tampa, and he was released after being arrested on a DUI charge in September 2016. Otton — a model citizen so far in Tampa — would really have to regress to hit Seferian-Jenkins status, and that’s unlikely.
9. OLB Shaquil Barrett
Year: Ninth
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: A younger version of himself. In the wake of the most traumatic offseason of his life, Barrett could be hard-pressed to regain the form that made him a Pro Bowler in 2019 and 2021. But if the Achilles he ruptured last October holds up, we’re guessing he’ll perform at an inspired level to honor the memory of 2-year-old daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: Da’Quan Bowers. As edge rushers go, this second-round pick (in 2011) may be the franchise’s biggest bust ever. During a disastrous half-decade tenure marked by injuries, arrests and suspensions, Bowers totaled only seven sacks. While Barrett, 30, is bereft of such off-field issues, injuries and productivity are concerns at this stage of his career.
8. WR Chris Godwin
Year: Seventh
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: The 2021 version of himself before his season-ending knee injury. The most versatile receiver on the roster, Godwin had 98 catches (for 1,103 yards) in 14 games before being sidelined. With precious little experience at receiver behind him and Mike Evans, Godwin will be counted on to catch, block, clear out defenders and mentor. In other words, he must be Chris Godwin.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: His younger self. Amid a few dazzling stretches, Godwin struggled mightily with his consistency, catching fewer than 63% of the passes targeted his way in 2017 and 2018. That percentage hasn’t dipped below 71% since, and despite the wear on Godwin’s surgically mended lower body, we foresee no regression.
7. WR Trey Palmer
Year: Rookie
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Antonio Brown, circa 2020. A controversial signing in October 2020, four-time All-Pro Brown added a sleek dimension to the Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich offense once he got his bearings. Palmer, who dazzled in training camp, had two acrobatic touchdown catches in the preseason to vault him to No. 3 receiver.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: Arrelious Benn. This 2010 second-round draft pick battled knee and shoulder issues all three of his seasons in Tampa, totaling only 59 catches. The Bucs, who must find speedy complements to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, desperately need Palmer to assert himself now that Russell Gage has been sidelined (knee).
6. DL Calijah Kancey
Year: Rookie
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Ndamukong Suh. Hoping to get faster up front, the Bucs drafted Kancey to serve as a sturdy, agile complement to behemoth nose tackle Vita Vea. In the twilight of his career, Suh excelled in a similar complementary role during his three seasons in pewter, totaling 14.5 sacks as a Buc (not including his 1.5 sacks in Super Bowl 55).
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: Brian Price. Drafted one round after Gerald McCoy in 2010, the former UCLA star dealt with injuries and the death of a sibling in two tumultuous seasons in Tampa before being traded to the Bears for a seventh-round pick. In 20 games as a Buc, Price totaled three sacks.
5. RB Rachaad White
Year: Second
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Leonard Fournette in 2021. After his breakthrough playoff performance the previous winter, Fournette delivered a dazzling encore (1,466 total yards, 10 touchdowns) in 2021, averaging a career-best 4.5 yards a carry. White, who replaced Fournette as starter midway through 2022, brandished that same dual-threat versatility as a rookie.
Bucs will suffer if he plays like: Charles Sims. The team’s third-round pick in 2014 had a solid sophomore season (529 rushing, 561 receiving yards) but suffered from injuries and inconsistency in four mostly nondescript years in Tampa. A spotty receiver, Sims’ best catch percentage in a season (75%, 24 catches on 32 targets) pales next to White’s (86%, 50 catches on 58 targets) as a rookie.
4. WR Mike Evans
Year: 10th
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Himself. The Bucs brought a ton of young receivers to training camp in an effort to get faster at the position, but exactly none are proven. Even worse, veteran Russell Gage (knee) is on the shelf. At 30, Evans still can stretch a field like no one’s business. Additionally, he has indicated that the Dave Canales offense will feature fresh routes in his arsenal.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: DeSean Jackson. The three-time Pro Bowler still had some jet fuel in his tank upon signing with the Bucs in 2017, but never could get on the same page with Jameis Winston (164 targets, 91 catches in two years). The Bucs’ offensive fortunes could get bleak in a hurry this year if Evans doesn’t develop a clairvoyance with his new quarterback.
3. RT Luke Goedeke
Year: Second
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Tristan Wirfs, circa 2020. We know that’s asking for the moon, but if Goedeke — who played right tackle at Central Michigan — can reboot his fledgling career by simply approaching Wirfs’ All-Pro stratosphere, the Bucs’ refurbished offensive line just might prove serviceable.
Bucs will struggle if he plays like: He did as a rookie. Goedeke slid to left guard out of necessity in 2022 and struggled mightily in seven starts. While the Bucs’ protection/run-blocking issues can’t all be laid at Goedeke’s cleats, there’s a reason he’s playing right tackle again.
2. LT Tristan Wirfs
Year: Fourth
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Himself. At 24, Wirfs has earned Hall of Fame projections in three sparkling seasons at right tackle. If he can brandish the same brute strength and agility on the opposite side, the best edge rushers on Tampa Bay’s schedule (such as the 49ers’ Joey Bosa, Saints’ Cameron Jordan) will have far tougher routes to the Bucs’ backfield.
Bucs will suffer if he plays like: Anthony Collins. Signed to a five-year, $30 million contract in early 2014, the former Bengal regressed into a high-priced turnstile that fall, when the Bucs finished 2-14. Questioned for his effort level (unlike Wirfs), Collins was a glaring part of a unit that tied for third in the NFL for most sacks allowed (52) and was released after one season.
1. QB Baker Mayfield
Year: Sixth
Bucs will surprise if he plays like: Brady with bootleg chops. OK, that’s asking too much. There’s only one GOAT, but that GOAT possessed all the mobility of a street lamp, which really hamstrung the offense last year when the line couldn’t protect him. Mayfield can’t dissect a defense or sneak a spiral into a tight window like Brady, but his mobility could open things up for Dave Canales’ offense.
Bucs will suffer if he plays like: Jameis Winston. The No. 1 overall draft pick in 2015 possessed one of the greatest arms — and turnover propensities — in franchise history. Neither Canales nor coach Todd Bowles will let Mayfield even approach 30 interceptions (Winston’s total in 2019); they would make a change long before then.
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