Rangers vs. Panthers: Our analysis and prediction for the Eastern Conference Final
A spot in the Stanley Cup Final is on the line as the Rangers and Panthers meet in the Eastern Conference final beginning with Game 1 on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden.
Despite taking a 3-0 series lead against the Hurricanes in the conference semifinals, it seemed as if Game 7 at MSG was on deck with the Blueshirts down 3-2 early in the third period of Game 6 in Carolina.
Instead, Chris Kreider put together one of the all-time great playoff performances for the Rangers, netting a natural hat trick (three consecutive goals) in just under nine minutes of game action, giving New York the lead for good and ultimately ending the series in six games.
On the other side, the Panthers eliminated the Bruins in six games, reaching their second straight conference final after representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final last season.
In the regular season series, the Panthers held the 2-1 series advantage, with two of the contests being decided by one goal.
Can the Rangers advance to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2014, or will the Panthers join their Florida counterparts, the Lightning, and appear in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals in the last five years?
Here's our analysis and prediction for the Eastern Conference finals between the Rangers and Panthers:
Offensive advantage: Rangers
This one's closer than you think.
These teams are back-to-back in goals per game these playoffs, with the Panthers coming it at No. 3 with 3.55 GPG and the Rangers right behind them at 3.50 GPG.
The difference to me is slightly more consistency from the Blueshirts.
New York has scored four or more goals in six of their eight victories these playoffs, while Florida has achieved this accomplishment four times.
It's very close but I'm siding with the Rangers in putting pucks in the back of the net.
Defensive advantage: Panthers
The potential difference maker in this series could come down to Florida's defense. The Panthers are only allowing 24.1 shots per game in the postseason (best of the final four teams), while the Blueshirts surrender 32.5 shots on net per contest, the highest remaining of the organizations in the conference final.
Furthermore, in their series clinching win against Boston, the Panthers only gave up 23 shots, including just six in the final 20 minutes of action.
When it comes down to it, this is easily the best goalie matchup of this round and potentially the entire playoffs in the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin and the Panthers' Sergei Bobrovsky.
Through two rounds, Shesterkin has amassed a .923 save percentage and a 2.40 goals against average (GAA) in 10 games.
Bobrovsky has played an extra game and put up a very similar GAA (2.37), but the difference is his save percentage comes in much lower at .902 these playoffs.
So while the Rangers have the upper hand in the goalie battle, I lean Panthers given their ability to not allow their opponent to get nearly as many shots on their netminder.
Special teams: Rangers
When it comes to special teams, the clear winner is the Blueshirts.
New York ranks top-three in both power play (31.4 percent) and penalty kill (89.5 percent) this postseason, a big reason why the franchise has made it back to the third round for the second time in four seasons.
On the other bench, Florida doesn't stack up nearly the same when it comes to the power play. The organization has only converted 22 percent during the man advantage, the lowest of the final four teams. However, the Panthers are right behind the Rangers' on the penalty kill, coming in at 86.1 percent.
With both teams penalty kill percentage being neck and neck, this category goes to the Rangers advantage.
Rangers vs. Panthers odds & prediction:
Heading into Game 1, the Rangers are slight underdogs at +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) to win the series, with the Panthers as marginal favorites at +100 or even money (Bet $100 to win $100).
To me, this series boils down to the two factors mentioned above:
Can the Rangers not only get enough shots versus Bobrovsky, but also continue their success on the power play?
While the sustained excellence on the man advantage will be tough against an aforementioned stout Panthers' defensive unit, I believe the Blueshirts will do enough in the clutch moments to take down the reigning Eastern Conference champions, claiming the Prince of Wales trophy for the first time in a decade.
It will be a tough, long series, with New York clinching on the Panthers' home ice at Amerant Bank Arena in Game 6.
The best odds in New Jersey for the Rangers to win the series is on ESPN Bet at +130.
Prediction: Rangers in 6
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Rangers vs Panthers: Predictions, preview for conference final
