Rangers vs. Hurricanes NHL playoff preview: 3 questions, key matchups and prediction

The Rangers' road to the Stanley Cup was always going to have to go through Carolina.

The Hurricanes have stood in their way for five years running, beginning with a humbling sweep in a very brief return to the 2020 COVID-expanded playoffs at the tail end of an accelerated rebuild.

They went their separate ways while playing in isolated, regional divisions during the pandemic-shortened 2021 season before reconvening in the Metro once restrictions were lifted. The Canes took first place in 2021-22 and 2022-23, but sandwiched in the middle was a memorable 2022 playoff series. The home team won every game until the Rangers bucked that trend and stunned the Carolina crowd with a decisive victory in Game 7.

Then came the current 2023-24 season, with New York finally leapfrogging Carolina to capture its first divisional title (and Presidents' Trophy) since 2014-15. The Canes weren't far behind, finishing three points back for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. So, it was only fitting that they'd collide at some point in the playoffs.

"That's the team you want to overtake," Rangers captain Jacob Trouba said.

Second-round set: Rangers brace for 'long series' vs. Canes; updates on Chytil, Fox

The Blueshirts will get that chance when their second-round series against the Hurricanes begins with Game 1 on Sunday at 4 p.m. at Madison Square Garden. The rest of the game times have yet to be announced, although it’s believed Game 2 will be played Tuesday night.

Despite sweeping the outmatched Washington Capitals in the first round and clinching home-ice advantage throughout the postseason, the Rangers will enter the series as underdogs according to most betting sites. That's because pretty much every analytical model favors Carolina, which has consistently graded out as one of the league's very best teams in terms of shot share, possession and defending.

The Rangers don't seem to mind being doubted − at least not publicly.

"I don't think anybody in here really cares too much about the outside noise and all that chatter," Trouba said. "We believe in ourselves in here, and I think we know what's ahead of us. It's going to be a hard-fought, long series. That's what we're preparing for."

No one should be surprised if Trouba's words end up ringing true. This has seven-game series written all over it, with several ups, downs and momentum swings to be expected.

It will be a battle of attrition, with high-level players at every position and an intense will to win on both sides. The Canes have established their reputation as grind-you-out, win-every-foot-race outfit in six seasons under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, while the Rangers have taken on a similar mantra since bench boss Peter Laviolette took over last summer.

"We know it's going to be fast," Laviolette said. "We know it's going to be competitive. That's, I think, when we're at our best. And if you watch them, that's when they're at their best, as well. They're on the attack. They're checking forward. They're pressing, pressing, pressing. You have to be ready for that. You have to be ready from a speed standpoint, a compete standpoint."

Let's dive in...

3 questions

1. Which team is most improved since 2022?

The Rangers are carrying 14 players who were with the team in 2021-22, while the number balloons to 18 for the Canes. The cores for each side are largely the same, but as Chris Kreider pointed out, “There's more turnover than you realize.”

The biggest swing factor is Vincent Trocheck. He was the Hurricanes’ second-line center two years ago, scoring three goals in their series against New York, but will be wearing Ranger blue this time around.

The 30-year-old was arguably the Blueshirts' second-best player this season behind Artemi Panarin and contributed to every facet of their first-round sweep, leading the team with three goals, an NHL-best 71.2% faceoff win rate and an average of 22:20 time on ice across the four games.

“That’s a big piece,” as Trouba aptly put it.

On the Carolina side, the most impactful addition is Jake Guentzel. There’s a swing element there, as well, after the Rangers made a push for the former Pittsburgh Penguins’ standout at the trade deadline but weren’t willing to part with their top prospects to make it happen.

The former Cup winner posted 25 points (eight goals and 17 assists) in 17 regular-season games with the Canes and added another four (one goal and three assists) in five first-round playoff games against the Islanders. It would certainly add to the sting of missing out if he burns the Blueshirts in this series.

Trading for Guentzel, as well as another former champion in Evgeny Kuznetsov, infused Carolina's lineup with scoring depth to add to the speed, hustle and defense it already had in spades.

"They're both dynamic, offensive-minded guys," Trocheck said. "But the team itself plays the same way, no matter who’s in the lineup."

There are other newcomers on both sides.

The Rangers' most notable non-Trocheck change is on the bench, where Laviolette took over this season and instantly improved communication, preparation and accountability. They also signed defenseman Erik Gustafsson last summer, traded for forwards Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg at the deadline and incorporated rookies Will Cuylle and Matt Rempe.

For the Hurricanes, on top of adding Guentzel and Kuznetsov, they've bolstered their already-deep blue line by acquiring Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov in a two-year span. But the most significant advancement for either team could come from a host of young players who were around back in 2022 and have grown into more prominent roles since.

Which 25-and-unders will make the most valuable contributions in this series? Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafrenière and K'Andre Miller on the New York side? Or Seth Jarvis, Martin Nečas and Andrei Svechnikov for Carolina?

2. Will the Rangers make any lineup changes?

If they are, Laviolette isn't planning to discuss it publicly.

"I’m probably not going to talk about the lineup," he said Wednesday.

That leaves us to rely on what we've seen at practice, which has indicated the Rangers will keep the same lineup they used while sweeping Washington in the first round. That would mean no Filip Chytil, who continues to ramp up his hockey activities but has yet to work regularly with any particular line.

Signs are pointing to the Blueshirts waiting to insert the 24-year-old center, who's had a long journey back from lingering concussion symptoms, until injury or adversity hits.

For now, it appears they'll stick with Rempe as the 12th forward.

The 6-foot-8 rookie brought undeniable energy and physicality against the lumbering Capitals, even adding a key goal in Game 1. But the fast-paced Canes are a much different opponent, with Rempe's skill set less suited for this type of track meet.

You could make a reasonable argument for a speed infusion from Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski. There may come a point when the Rangers move in that direction, but this looks like an if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it situation. Until they suffer a loss or two, the Rempire State Building will likely remain in the playoff spotlight.

The only other lineup question heading into the second round revolves around the status of Adam Fox. The former Norris Trophy-winning defenseman didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday for what the team deemed maintenance reasons, but his absence is believed to stem from a right-leg injury that occurred when he was tripped by Caps defenseman Nick Jensen in the first period of Game 4 on Sunday. He was in obvious pain after the play, but finished the game while logging 21:09 TOI.

Laviolette has been vague about Fox's status for Game 1 against the Canes, but it would register as a major surprise if No. 23 doesn't suit up.

3. Can Frederik Andersen keep this up?

Perhaps the biggest gap between the two teams is in goal, where the Rangers have one of the best in the world in Igor Shesterkin and the Hurricanes have had a revolving door for years. But Carolina may be in a better spot there than it has been in quite some time.

Backup Antti Raanta started all seven games in the 2022 series due a lower-body injury to starter Frederik Andersen, who's missed significant time over the years with multiple ailments. That includes a blood clot that cost him more than four months this season, but the 34-year-old has been as sharp as ever since his Mar. 7 return.

From that point forward, Andersen posted a .951 save percentage with 14.6 goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, which both ranked first among NHL goalies who started at least 10 games in that span. He carried that momentum into playoffs and has now won 13 of 15 combined starts since coming back.

There was some thought that Brind'Amour would give postseason starts to Pyotr Kochetkov, who went 23-13-4 with a .911 SV% during an encouraging rookie campaign. Andersen's hot hand has dictated otherwise, but Kochetkov remains a solid Plan B should the veteran cool off.

All told, the Hurricanes are benefiting from a better goaltending situation than we've come to expect in recent years. But can Andersen (or Kochetkov) maintain this high level as the competition (and pressure) increases?

3 key matchups

Rangers' 5v5 offense vs. Canes' man-to-man defense

Since Brind'Amour took over in Carolina six seasons ago, the Hurricanes have consistently rated as one of the league's best teams in five-on-five situations. Their 56.67% xGF ranked second among all 32 teams this season, coming off a No. 1 overall showing (59.88%) the year before. (The Rangers, by comparison, ranked 23rd at 48.32%.)

It starts with a swarming forecheck, with all five skaters hounding opponents with every stride as they attempt to advance pucks up the ice. That in-your-face pressure often forces mistakes, with the Canes capitalizing to consistently win the possession battle. And when they have the puck, they aren't afraid to shoot it, with an average of 33.3 shots per game that ranks third in the NHL and a 56.95% shot share that ranks first.

Hustle is a big reason why Carolina's defense is so effective, with Brind'Amour a master motivator who demands a high motor from all of his players. But the system is a major part of their success, as well, specifically a man-to-man scheme that doesn't give opponents an inch.

"What you see is what you get with this team," Trocheck said. "They’re an honest, hard-playing team."

The Rangers know the system well and understand what's required to beat it, with the additions of a couple plus skaters in Roslovic and Wennberg aimed at helping them play faster against a smothering opponent like the Canes. Much of Thursday's practice was focused on solving their man-to-man coverage, but the biggest key, as Trocheck put it, is simply "a matter of outworking" them.

"They’re probably one of the best teams that defends that way," Mika Zibanejad said. "They’re hard to play against, and it's obviously a challenge. ... The way we have to break it is just work for each other and try to win when you're one-on-one – not just on the puck, but off the puck, as well. Move and make room. It's a team that we're familiar with. We know what gave us success against them in the previous games and what things that we have to do better this series."

Mika Zibanejad's line vs. Jordan Staal's line

Brind'Amour loves to take advantage of last change on home ice by handpicking his preferred matchups and building a checking line to negate opposing team's top forwards.

That's always been centered by perennial Selke Trophy-candidate Jordan Staal, who remains a shutdown defender but is playing in a slightly different role these playoffs. A neck injury to Jesper Fast, whom Rangers' fans know well for his defensive prowess and high work rate, and some shuffling at center has elevated Staal into the Hurricanes' top six. He still has a highly responsible forward on each of his wings in Seth Jarvis and Teuvo Teräväinen, but those players have more offense in their arsenal than we've typically seen from Staal's line.

In many respects, that makes them an even tougher matchup. And it shouldn't change Staal's assignment.

The 35-year-old has had some memorable battles with Zibanejad over the years, with a breakthrough occurring during that 2022 series. The Rangers' No. 1 center was held without a point in each of the first two games − both played in Carolina, with a heavy dose of Staal − but he busted out once the series shifted to New York. Zibanejad scored goals in each of the next four games before collecting three assists in the Game 7 clincher.

Notably, the 31-year-old was held without a point in each of this season's three head-to-head meetings. The Blueshirts still won two of them, but finding ways to unlock the Kreider-Zibanejad-Roslovic line − which finished the Caps' series with a 45.25% xGF, worst among New York's four lines, according to Natural Stat Trick − in a tough matchup will be a key.

It'll be interesting to see how many shifts Staal draws against the NHL's most productive regular-season line of Panarin, Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière. Shutting them down will be a top priority for the Canes, but they may want to match that firepower with their own top line of Guentzel, Sebastian Aho and Svechnikov.

Rangers' special teams vs. Hurricanes' special teams

It's not hyperbole to call these the NHL's premier special teams' teams.

The Rangers finished the regular season ranked third in the league in both power play (26.4%) and penalty kill (84.5%), while Hurricanes registered the No. 2 PP (26.9%) and No. 1 PK (86.4%).

Those trends mostly continued in the first round, with New York converting 37.5% of its power plays behind a top unit of Fox, Kreider, Panarin, Trocheck and Zibanejad. Carolina wasn't far behind with a 33.3% success rate using a PP1 featuring Aho, Burns, Guentzel, Jarvis and Svechnikov.

The only discrepancy came on the Canes' PK, which dipped to 72.7% against the Isles while the Blueshirts dominated the Caps to the tune of 88.2%, with a pair of game-winning, shorthanded goals to boot.

It'll be a clean slate once the puck drops for Game 1, but it's not an exaggeration to think whoever wins the special teams' battle wins the series.

"As you go deeper in the playoffs, it gets more and more important," Trouba said. "All the teams at this point have good power plays, good penalty kills. It's a major part of the game."

Prediction

The obvious concern heading into this series is that Carolina looks like one of the few teams who could expose New York at five-on-five.

The Rangers aren't as mediocre as some of the numbers indicate, especially because of their improved team defense under Laviolette, but their even-strength scoring has been underwhelming at times. When the Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière line isn't getting it done, the other three lines haven't produced consistently enough.

Their collective output against Washington doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in that regard, with seven 5v5 goals in the four games, a 45.01% xGF and 47.71% shot share. On the other hand, they didn't need to rack up goals to beat an aging team with such little offense push back.

Still, it's hard not to think the Canes will have the edge at 5v5. Barring something unforeseen, it's also clear the Rangers have superior goaltending with a former Vezina Trophy-winner in Shesterkin. That's why special teams will be so important, because whichever team wins that battle has a chance to tip the scales in their favor.

The margin between two of the league's top teams is that slim, making this series feel like a virtual toss-up. But if there's another factor that makes me lean in one direction, it's manner in which this budding rivalry has shifted in recent years.

Beginning with the 2020 bubble postseason up until they met again in the 2022 playoffs, the Rangers went 1-6 against the Canes. The narrative heading into that second playoff meeting was about Carolina being a bad matchup, but New York ended that chatter by winning the series in seven games.

That gave the Blueshirts confidence they could handle the Canes' aggressive forecheck and man-to-man defense, which they've backed up multiple times since with a 5-2 head-to-head record the past two regular seasons. The intensity is about to get turned up again, but I believe they have the formula — excellent goaltending and special teams, plus enough stars, grit and structure to make big plays at 5v5 — and the collective battle scars to push through. That's why I'm taking the Rangers in seven.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Rangers vs. Hurricanes preview: 3 questions, key matchups & prediction