Should the Rams take a chance on Trey Lance as Matthew Stafford’s successor?
The 49ers thought they found their franchise quarterback in 2021 when they traded up for Trey Lance and selected him third overall. In total, they traded three first-round picks and a third-rounder to take Lance with the No. 3 pick, a deal that now looks like one of the worst in NFL history.
Not only has Lance failed to earn the starting job in San Francisco, but he’s not even the backup to Brock Purdy. The 49ers have named Darnold their No. 2 quarterback, leaving Lance at No. 3 and in limbo.
San Francisco is considering its options with Lance, which presumably includes a potential trade. Cutting him would cost the 49ers $14.6 million in dead money, which is $5.3 million more than his 2023 cap hit. Trading him would save them $3.76 million this year, so that seems like the more logical option.
If the 49ers do put Lance on the block, should the Rams consider making a move? Obviously, this wouldn’t be with the 2023 season in mind; Matthew Stafford is the unquestioned starter this year. However, if Stafford is legitimately considering retirement in the next two years, the Rams need a successor.
The #49ers are naming Sam Darnold their No. 2 quarterback and the team is exploring options with Trey Lance, sources tell me and @RapSheet.
Darnold will back up Brock Purdy, while the future of Lance — the No. 3 overall pick in 2021 — is unclear. pic.twitter.com/HxXQkfM6nq
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 23, 2023
Lance hasn’t exactly proved to be a starting quarterback through two-plus years, but he also hasn’t gotten many reps – even going back to college. He had one full season as a starter at North Dakota State and has started four regular-season games in the NFL.
The 49ers must not like what they’ve seen in practice, which can’t be ignored, but he’s still such a raw player with very little actual experience. Since 2018, he’s played 23 games and attempted 420 passes in the regular season between college and the NFL. For comparison, Stafford threw 303 passes in only nine games last year alone.
Based on reports, Lance has struggled this offseason, both in practice and the preseason. Pro Football Focus has graded him 73rd among all quarterbacks in the preseason, completing 22 of 33 passes for 285 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. His three turnover-worthy plays are tied for the second-most in the NFL.
So why would the Rams even consider acquiring a prospect who’s widely considered to be a bust? Because of Sean McVay’s coaching ability and Stafford’s uncertain future.
If all it takes is a fourth- or fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft to acquire Lance, the Rams would be crazy not to at least think about it. They used a fourth-rounder on Stetson Bennett this year and he’s two years older than Lance.
If the Rams were to acquire Lance, it would give them yet another young quarterback to develop, and potentially a starter if Stafford were to retire after this season or next. Lance will have a cap hit of $10.85 million in 2024 and a fully guaranteed year of at least $20 million in 2025 thanks to the fifth-year option, but the Rams wouldn’t necessarily have to pick up that option. They could sign him to a different deal worth less, depending on how/when he plays.
Getting a top-10 talent for a Day 3 pick is never a bad dart throw, especially at the most important position in sports. If Lance doesn’t pan out, you cut bait and let him go after paying a mid-round pick. It’s no different than the Rams cutting John Franklin-Myers one year after taking him in fourth round – even though that decision looks like one of the worst of the Les Snead era.
In the off chance that McVay can develop Lance into an above-average starter, it would be a massive win for the Rams. We know McVay likes mobile quarterbacks, too, and Lance certainly has plenty of athleticism.
He has some legitimate arm talent, too.
I thought this was one of #49ers Trey Lance best throws, Flick of the wrist pic.twitter.com/xk8Dools8W
— Rich Keltz (@RichKeltz707) August 21, 2023
The biggest concern with Lance is his awareness and processing in the pocket. It seems like he’s been late to see receivers open and holds the ball too long, which gets him in trouble and leads to sacks or ill-advised throws.
McVay’s offense is very quarterback-friendly, though, which could help Lance take the necessary steps toward becoming a starter – even if that’s two or three years down the line.
The 49ers aren’t going to trade Lance within the division, and Kyle Shanahan definitely isn’t trading him to his buddy McVay. But if I’m the Rams and the price is a fifth-rounder, I’m at least thinking about it.
