Quinn Ewers NFL draft: How Texas QB's decision could impact Arch Manning, Maalik Murphy

This story has been updated from a previous version.

Texas football (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) is still firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt for the 2023 college football season, but there’s already talk regarding the Longhorns’ future quarterback situation.

Quinn Ewers, a two-year starter and former No. 1 overall recruiting prospect, is reportedly very likely to return to the Longhorns next season, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Thamel said Ewers' camp believes an extra year of development would help his chances at being a successful NFL quarterback.

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Meanwhile, Texas has another No. 1-ranked prospect, Arch Manning, waiting in the wings. The latest in the Manning family line of quarterbacks (following grandfather Archie Manning and two-time Super Bowl-winning uncles Peyton and Eli Manning), Arch Manning made his first appearance of the season against Texas Tech last Saturday, relieving Ewers before backup Maalik Murphy, who started two games in Ewers' absence this season.

The future of the Longhorns’ quarterback room is certainly not the worst problem to have, with two passers seemingly talented enough to run the show should Ewers leave. If the current Texas starter does return, however, it creates a set of circumstances coach Steve Sarkisian will be forced to navigate.

Here’s a rundown of Texas’ future quarterback situation, and how Ewers' decision affects not only himself, but also, potentially, Murphy and Manning:

Will Quinn Ewers return to Texas?

Ewers has long been believed to leave college early for the NFL, as he did the same in high school.

The former No. 1-ranked prospect of the 2021 recruiting class reclassified from the 2022 class by graduating from Southlake Carroll High School in Texas early to join Ohio State’s roster. Ewers didn’t play his freshman season with the Buckeyes, instead sitting behind future No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud. Following the 2021 season, he transferred to Texas.

On Saturday before the Big 12 Championship game, ESPN reported the likelihood of Ewers returning is growing exponentially.

Ewers has certainly flashed his potential at times, but injuries in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons have reduced his playing time during his college career. The redshirt sophomore missed games vs. BYU and Kansas State after a third-quarter injury vs. Houston before returning against TCU. He also missed three games last season after a hit from Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner.

Ewers emerged as a Heisman Trophy candidate early in the season after passing for 349 yards and three touchdowns in the Longhorns’ 34-24 road win against Alabama in Week 2, but fell off the list after surrendering three turnovers against Oklahoma in a 34-30 loss in Week 6.

The 6-2 signal caller’s talent alone would likely see him selected early in the 2024 NFL Draft, but a full season of production could result in Ewers being among the top selected quarterbacks in 2025.

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Quinn Ewers NFL draft projections

Ewers was routinely projected in the preseason to be selected in the first round, even being mocked as high as the No. 6 overall pick and third quarterback selected behind USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye, the consensus top two QBs of the class. Ewers definitely helped his stock with his performance against Alabama, but a few lackluster starts, paired with his injury, has seen him fall out of numerous recent projections.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, which compiles various mock drafts from throughout the industry, Ewers is a projected second rounder whose average selection is the 45th overall pick. His highest projection is ninth overall to the Falcons.

Will Arch Manning transfer?

If Ewers returns for another season, it’s fair to speculate whether Manning would transfer to find playing time earlier in his career.

With a Ewers return, Manning would likely not have a path to starting until his redshirt sophomore season (his third year in the program). However, his grandfather Archie Griffin said in a recent interview with The Spun that the same situation worked well at Ole Miss for Eli Manning, the No. 1 pick of the 2004 NFL Draft:

"Every situation is different. If you remember, Peyton and Eli went to school early for spring training. Peyton got thrown in for his first game as a freshman. He played a great deal that season. Tennessee had a great offensive line and two really good running backs, so that allowed him to work into it," Archie Manning told The Spun. "Eli had what I think is the best course. He redshirted his first year, was a backup in his second year, and then started in his third year. I think it’s a big jump."

Even if Ewers leaves for the NFL after the season, it’s not a given Manning beats out Murphy for the starting role next season. Without Ewers in the room, they would likely compete for the starting job in the spring. Murphy might have the leg up in the competition with two starts this season: The former four-star recruit combined to complete 35 of 62 passes (56.4%) for 418 yards and three touchdowns to three interceptions in relief of Ewers.

Manning has yet to appear this season and can be redshirted as long as he doesn't play in more than four games. As it stands now, the most recent indication on his status at Texas is that he doesn't intend to transfer.

"Arch is happy with the decision he made. All the reports we get is that he’s doing well," Archie Manning told The Spun. "He’s going to get a redshirt out of this year, and I think that’s important."

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Will Maalik Murphy transfer?

Murphy will be a redshirt sophomore next season and would likely compete with Manning for the starting job should Ewers decide to not return to school.

If Ewers returns, however, Murphy would almost certainly weigh his options on whether to transfer, as he would have even less playing time as a starter should he remain with the Longhorns (assuming he beat out Manning once Ewers did leave). Murphy has flashed potential of being a solid player at a major program.

Murphy was the No. 12-rated quarterback of the 2022 recruiting class, holding offers from Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan and others. He would certainly draw interest in the transfer portal.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Quinn Ewers' NFL draft decision impacts Arch Manning, Maalik Murphy