Quarter-season analysis: 20 things I think about the NY Rangers

Wednesday's 3-2 comeback win over the Detroit Red Wings officially moved the New York Rangers past the quarter pole of the 2023-24 NHL season.

The Blueshirts have now played 21 of the 82 games on their schedule, racking up an impressive 16 wins in that span to earn a league-best .786 points percentage.

Postgame takeaways: Clutch Jimmy Vesey leads comeback win

With each passing game, we're learning a little bit more about the makeup of this team and how they're adapting to new head coach Peter Laviolette. There's still a long way to go, with the ultimate judgment coming once the playoffs roll around in mid-April. But it's no longer early. The contenders and pretenders are beginning to separate themselves.

New York certainly falls into the former category, but here we'll get into many of the specific takeaways with more than 25% of the schedule complete. I really enjoyed writing this piece at this time last year, so we decided to give it another go.

Here are 20 things I think about these Rangers based on their first 20-plus games:

20 things I think about the NYR

1. I think hiring Laviolette is looking like a wise choice. He felt like an uninspiring retread at the time, but he’s brought a new level of accountability, communication and structure. His systematic changes have made an immediate impact on team defense, his practices have upped the competitiveness and intensity, and his game management has been a clear upgrade over previous coach Gerard Gallant.

2. I think many of those improvements are showing up in the finer details. The Rangers have gone from 20th in the NHL to first in faceoff percentage, 18th to seventh in blocked shots and 31st to third in giveaways.

3. I think having a consistent forecheck and effective neutral-zone trap makes a world of difference. The stats bear that out, with the Blueshirts’ average goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.38) and shots allowed (28.33) both the lowest they’ve been since they won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2014-15.

4. I think there’s still work to be done with their five-on-five offense, but it’s trending in the right direction. New York scored only 13 goals at 5v5 in its first 10 games (an average of 1.3 per game), then followed it with 27 in the next 11 (an average of 2.45 per game).

5. I think the top power-play unit feels as dangerous as it has in any of my five seasons covering the team. It hasn’t been as predictable with everything flowing toward Mika Zibanejad for one-timer attempts, with much more motion, diversity and crisp puck movement. The chemistry is deep-seeded between the five guys on PP1 − Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck − with the result a 29.2% conversion rate that ranks fourth in the league and an 11.29 xGF/60 that's tied for first, according to Evolving Hockey.

6. I think Zibanejad’s slow start has flown under the radar because the team is winning, but six 5v5 points (two goals and four assists) through 21 games is hard to sustain from your No. 1 center. The good news is he's riding a four-game point streak and has a history of getting hot in the second half of the season.

7. I think Blake Wheeler isn’t the solution as the top-line right winger. He’s been better since moving up, but there are still too many moments when the 37-year-old looks like he’s behind the play. His 44.85% xGF is easily the worst among forwards who have been used in the top six. There aren’t any great alternatives with Kaapo Kakko on long-term injured reserve, but I do wonder if putting Zibanejad in between Panarin and Alexis Lafrenière − who have been a revelation as the team's best 5v5 forward duo this season − would ignite the top line.

8. I think I’m surprised by how drastically different the season has gone for Kakko and Lafrenière. At the end of training camp, the opinion both organizationally and around the league was that Kakko was the young forward poised for a breakout. Instead, he’s struggled to produce offense, with just three points (two goals and one assist) in 19-plus games before getting hurt Monday. Meanwhile, Lafrenière is third on the team with eight goals and has never looked more confident.

9. I think Erik Gustafsson was the biggest steal on team president Chris Drury’s bargain-shopping spree over the summer. For a one-year, $825,000 deal, he built the best bottom pair the Rangers have had in years while gaining a skilled puck-mover who’s made their defensive-zone breakouts and offensive-zone entries much cleaner. The 31-year-old leads all New York defensemen with 15 points (three goals and 12 assists) and a 54.63% xGF, and he stepped up during Fox’s 10-game absence without flinching.

10. I think it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Rangers made the right call signing Trocheck over other free-agent center options from two summers ago. They could have kept a locker-room favorite in Ryan Stome for a bit less money and term, but he never made the all-around impact we’re seeing from Trocheck. They're similarly productive offensively (Trocheck has posted 17 points so far this season, with Strome at 16 in Anaheim), but Trocheck gets significantly higher marks for his defense, skating and versatility. He fits like a glove in Laviolette’s system and leads the NHL with a 63.5% faceoff win rate. (Strome is at 37.5%.)

11. I think Jacob Trouba is the most comfortable I’ve seen him in New York. Having a year as captain under his belt helps, leading to a player who looks at ease in the locker room and in his element on the ice. As a result, the 29-year-old defenseman is playing the best hockey since his 2019 arrival. He's not asked to be a big point producer, but rather take on the toughest defensive assignments, impose his will on opponents with his physical prowess and sacrifice his body at key moments in nearly every game. Laviolette recently called him "a warrior," with his rugged role reminding me of how Ryan McDonagh was deployed in his Rangers' days.

12. I think Jonathan Quick is proving me (and others) wrong. He was coming off easily the worst season of his career and looked unsteady in the preseason, leading many to believe the 37-year-old might be at the end of his rope. But he's actually outperformed No. 1 goalie Igor Shesterkin so far with a 6-0-1 record, .930 save percentage, 1.99 goals against average and 8.8 goals saved above expected that ranks fourth in the NHL, according to moneypuck.com.

13. I think I'm worried about Filip Chytil's long-term health. He's had at least four concussions now, according to one source, with the symptoms seemingly worsening each time. It's been nearly a month since his most recent suspected head injury and he still hasn't been cleared to skate with the team. Forget about hockey − this is a 24-year-old with his whole life ahead of him. We're all wishing the best for him.

14. I think salary cap space is going to be tight by the time the March 8 trade deadline rolls around. There are multiple factors that will determine what the final figure is, but the longer the Rangers have players on LTIR, the more damage is being done to their potential accrual. If they really do expect Kakko (and Chytil) back during regular season, which is what I've heard from multiple sources, then the LTIR pool money they currently have at their disposal will evaporate upon his return. With some help from our friends at PuckPedia, I came up with the following projections. If Kakko is back sometime in January, New York will have enough time to get their available cap space into the $1.5 million-to-$2 million range. But if he ends up on LTIR until closer to the deadline, that number could land at $1 million or less.

15. I think, with the limited space they'll likely have, it makes sense to target a center who can also play right wing. That would provide depth in the event of another Chytil injury/setback, while also giving Laviolette an option at what appears to be their thinnest position (RW). It'll be difficult to thread the needle − find a player who comes cheap but also has enough skill to play up in the lineup, if needed − and it'll be a while before realistic trade chips come into focus. But it's never too early to start scouring the rosters of teams who look like they could be sellers.

16. I think, in the meantime, Jimmy Vesey is best candidate to move up. He leads all Blueshirts' bottom-six forwards with five goals and is as reliable as any in all three zones. Whenever Chytil does come back, I could envision a third line featuring him, Vesey and rookie Will Cuylle. And if Wheeler doesn't click on the top line, you could even make a case for the 30-year-old to get a look there.

17. I think it’s best to let forward prospect Brennan Othmann stay in Hartford at least until after the holidays. Maybe the 2021 first-round pick will earn his way into the NHL lineup later this season, but rushing him would be short-sighted. He was assigned to the AHL to learn the finer points of the pro game and, as he put it, "get rid of my junior habits." The Rangers are playing well enough where they don't have to make a hasty decision that would disrupt that development plan.

18. I think Panarin is the team MVP to this point. Zibanejad isn't producing up to his usual standards, Fox missed significant time with a lower-body injury and Shesterkin hasn't quite reached top form. But No. 10 has been a constant. He's responded to last spring's playoff disappointment by showcasing his playmaking skills in a way we haven't seen this consistently since his 2019-20 Hart Trophy finalist season. That attacking mindset has him tied for fifth in the league with 31 points (12 goals and 19 assists) while leading New York with a 56.75% xGF.

19. I think the resiliency knack the team has shown reminds me of the 2021-22 season, which ended with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. They ranked second in the NHL with 27 comeback wins that season, including eight when trailing in the third period. They've posted seven comeback wins this year, with five of those coming in the final 20 minutes.

20. I think the Rangers are one of 11 teams with a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup. My list includes the Avalanche, Bruins, Devils, Hurricanes, Kings, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Panthers, Stars and defending champion Golden Knights.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: NY Rangers: Quarter-season analysis and 20 thoughts